Member Info for Atanasoff

The ups and (mainly) downs of CNSL/ODX is an interesting one and it is good playing around with the numbers, even though seeing that Jag got a £195,000 pay off sticks in the throat.

We know that inevitably H1 wasn't as strong as 2024 (4.1 vs 4.9). We also know that the UK is now saturated so growth will be through market share and squeezing the market. However, growth worldwide has been pretty good considering the dire state of marketing/sales. By doing some very rough calculations based on the promise of a stronger H2 and some growth figures we can create a baseline for the end of year results to March 30th. This should be a "as is" projection without unknown factors such as new products, significant uptick on Lab equipment sales/franchising etc.

The figure? They should go through the 10m mark and end on £10,500,000.

This is based on growth and maintaining the sales they had in H2 2023/4 (which weirdly was exactly the same as H1 that year).

Now, we have been here before. We could be facing a 2020/1 year where sales collapsed in H2. If that is avoided and the above is reached it will replicate 2019/20 for turnarounds (although there was a specific reason for that).

So, now you know the benchmarks. Following is based on historical outcomes:

>£10.500 = Right trajectory

£8.2 - £10,250 = Stay nervous

Captain

It's not gone back to all that has it? haha. Just never learns.

Overdraft - was cancelled as they were about to go to the wall. The fire sale was just in time. I dont think many have done the math on how close they got to going under. A lack of overdraft is NOT a good thing for many reasons. This isn't like personal finances. Just shows how clueless people are.

Cash - On the burn rate I said it was on target to be under £4m. That is just obvious. The fact they were able to maintain above that figure showed a few things. HOWEVER, the idiots STILL haven't picked up the key thing in the accounts. They also fail to realise that. High cash balance isn't always beneficial to a company.

Dispute - I have said that this could go a number of ways. I doubt it will result in a credible counter claim and I also note they are draining £100K per 6 mths on legal. I think it could have been concluded with only a small amount of money being exchanged. I'm not sure now. What I can be certain of is that with a new government going after covid contracts that didn't deliver the risk has materially increased.

I am surprised the idiot hasn't mentioned the royalty payments. Remember "6 figures" haha. I noted in the accounts income from other investments and this wasn't defined. Could be anything. In the meantime no RNS about royalties and we're 18 months into a 36 month agreement. Oh dear. It's as if I'm going to be right about that. Incredible what reading the contract terms, a calculator and some simple maths can achieve eh?

What I think you're seeing is sheer frustration and desperation. The green stripe never listens and is toxic. It's like the new tory leader - would argue with itself if in front of a mirror but can't be bothered to calm down and actually learn something.

The irony is that its other logins are just as stupid.

LOL. (just for the Erskine avatar)

PS - Just noted a £15K buy. No impact on the price. I won't make another prediction but I have a guess.

Captain

You're right about the brokers notes. Utterly pointless and not the value of a CNSL share certificate.

Obviously market valuations are always challenging. Some stocks live on fantasy/memes etc. Tesla is hugely overvalued as an example but sentiment is towards it. However, in my world (planet earth) for run of the mill businesses you look at EBITDA for valuation. Lots of VC money around at the moment but the reality is that CNSL has huge challenges. It could be tempting for some but manufacturing is generally out of favour. Healthcare is doing well in certain sectors (mention AI and the value improves !).

If I was buying CNSL I would be offering under £3 million with caveats.

As I predicted a fortnight ago the low volume and slow drip of sells have resulted in the inevitable. A trade valued at just £4500 tipped it over, although it is also noting the spread has increased by 10%. That indicates the issue here.

Some talk about facts and reality. This is the reality. The market is speaking. Just as I said it would.

Now it is through 3p it is vulnerable. I see no reason to buy this stock currently and reasons to sell. The only reason a mass sell off isn't happening is because there wouldn't be enough buyers and the LTHs (who are propping this up) are too far under to accept the loss they face.

We are looking at a long slog to the next financial update. Typically (i.e going back to 2017) H2 was always weaker than H1. The last H2 was positive but not game changing. Of course we will always get the "jam tomorow" people. These are the ones that crow about every RNS. Remember DAMM health? LOL. The growth in USA?

The only thing CNSL / ODX got right was "dont order a Tesla yet". LOL

This stock will go a couple of ways. We could see a further plunge or we will see it bubble around 3p IMO. I dont believe this stop will provide a return for any holder currently.

Hey Captain.

It's hilarious - surprised it had enough brain cells to actually trade. Imagine selling 2 houses (rising on average by 3% per annum) and spending the money on this dog share. LOL. However, rather than learn anything this toxic non entity continues to bash the keyboard with its hooves.

40 Comments (not sure if this includes the many deleted based on Fayes comment)

8 Trades

Seriously? Ignore the fruit loop. It's toxic.

Meanwhile - the stock price has declined 3% in real terms today and sells are now scraping spot on 3p. Everyone should know what comes next.

If you were a holder back in July and you ignored my post suggesting the mini ramp was going to be your best opportunity to sell all year then more fool you. You could have sold at 4.10 over 3 days of trading. But you didn't did you? And now the price has slid by 26%. If you held say 300,000 "golden tickets" (LOL) you have lost a further £3,300 on top of your loss.

You reap what you sow. Karma is clearly frowning on the toxic idiot.

Right, time to go to the wine cellar. chin chin.

The funny thing is that at the time when the fruit loop was in full conspiracy theory it was given all the information it needed. It just ignored it.

It continued ranting as it saw the proceeds of two appreciating assets disappear due to its gambling habit on speculative stocks like ODX and dismissed anyone that it deemed to be responsible for the loss. Sure it moaned at the board a bit but didn't really do any due diligence. Accepted everything they said out of sheer desperation they were right.

At the time of the contract farce I posted clear evidence of RNS and actions that were in breach of the Directors fiduciary duties. But it was clearly too long. As the bogeyman I couldn't be listened to, despite experience etc. The green stripe and others prefer simple sentences rather than analysis. So I was instantly dismissed. Due to the level of ranting it then got the posts deleted.

I find this amusing. It was like a child screaming for a box of sweets while ignoring the box of sweets in front of it. When the posts were deleted I actually laughed.

So the only one to blame for the loss is its. I have zero sympathy because near enough 3 years later it has learnt NOTHING. What's worse is the toxic idiots seem to revel in their idiocy. Some people can't help themselves. It is why you get lifes losers. They deserve the misery they wallow in. Vile people. Angry at everything. Likely hates immigrants. Likely thinks Reform is the answer. Likely voted Brexit. Just human detritus.

As I posted last week this shows all the signs of going below 3p. The idiot deserves it.

61 Posts today and 9 trades. I'm the only one to have raised the TR1s and except for your comment Captain my guess is that no other interested party cares.

That is how bad this share is.

Please stop engaging with the fruit loop.

As I see my name in one of Captains posts I will take this opportunity to state (yet again) that unlike the avatar "CalderKate" I only have one ID on LSE.

Will also note that the Avatar CalderKate is filtered (happy for LSE) so I have no idea what little insults/victimhood/horse racing tips etc that utter non entity spouts on a daily basis. I would suggest all filter possibly one of the most toxic individuals Ive ever come across on a forum.

Sorry to break the bickering but we have two TR1's that prove two things:

1) Captain was right when he indicated largish sells (rather than the idiotic nonsense from you know who)

2) It seems even Spreadex gamblers are tired of this share. With no movement who can blame them?

Spreadex still represent a 7% holding. Let that sink in.

In the meantime 33 posts and 8 trades. Many posts from the green stripe. Calderkate doing the reverse Midas yet again. *sigh*. Why do such thick people refuse to listen to learn? Dont answer that. Seems the question I asked last week will be affirmative. Any big sells are going to struggle to get above 3p I think .

EBITDA is a good measure of performance and it is more valuable than say revenue. All are indicators to paint a picture. EBITDA is an indicator of value.

For example - a EBITDA of £200k in the current market would make CNSLs true value as a pure acquisition of around £1.2million.

Is the green stripe using my figures? LOL. Just don’t engage with it. A trolling liar that tries to justify itself daily on here. Likely the only conversation it has with someone. Utterly toxic and you will never “win”.

I don’t mind IGG tests being non scientific as long as CNSL realises that it is a life style wellness brand. It stopped being a science company when it sold off Alva (some would argue the German division).

America is huge and the market for magic beans is huge. Even right wing idiots like Alex jones made a killing selling health food supplements. It’s a multi million market. The issue is distribution and sales in a me to market. Needs to be very very pushy loud and in your face .

Read expensive.

Not sure CNSL are in that place yet.

I've been doing some math as we now have a clear direction of travel. Results soon.

In the meantime, reading the RNS's again and I think they are going for a reverse 2023.

1) By accident and due to total incompetence they banked a load of orders in 2022/23 which then ended up in the 2023/24 figures (When I showed the calcs for this just remember the screams from some on here that were declaring massive sales growth). This was largely why sales jumped to 4.9m and why H1 sales are down (they didn't have the bank).

2) They are now relying on banking as much business before year end as possible off the back of the new sales "team". Whomever is in that role I feel sorry for already. Typically, in sales you have two routes - first is easiest. Try and get as much out of your existing clients as possible. For CNSL this is a two edged sword but I wont go into that here. The second is getting new clients onboard which is MUCH tougher especially when the domestic market is saturated and you need to develop in new markets (culture, language, market education and maturity etc etc).

The sales started in Q2. That means Q4 will be critical. That is a huge pressure on a very small team with little marketing support.

Anyone can do the math - all the figures are there and the above indicates some of the practicalities that need considering (which if anyone has C suite experience they will know).

Just one little hand grenade - With Trump threatening huge tariffs for foreign companies and his buddy clearly wanting to interfere in UK elections you have to ask how a 25% tariff on a UK "me to" product trying to get established in a crowded and mature market is going to fair....

Captain

32 posts and 9 trades says it all. Looks the green stripe has been allowed back on despite the multiple logins. What a mess. 13 posts today alone. It is truly staggering on so many levels. Even replied to me in this thread almost as soon as it was made.

Has zero shame that one. Totally toxic.

Back to the share:

All sells today I note and now fetching a barrel scraping 3.11p. The only slight drama was the big buy a couple of days back that was almost instantly cancelled out (hence no change in price). Although I knew revenue would likely be down and we would see many legacy issues I was expecting a change in tone and a more energised approach with specifics. But we didn't. It was like Simon and the track suit king had never left. I was actually disappointed.

CNSL really need some good news. (Perhaps calamitykate putting investors off on here would be a start) . Said it before and say it again - think they have generally the right strategy (although since the presentation my faith is weakened) but the question is if they have the resource and time to make it happen.

The appalling presentation didn’t help and nor did the figures. The market speaks and despite a short lived blip the daily grind of low volumes and sells has seen the price return to its mean.

As we now have the facts and holders realise that this isn’t going to be a share you hold for any hope of short/medium return I wonder if we will see it dip below 3p again?

I’m not so sure but it appears that the trajectory is not positive. This could be due to big questions hanging over the company.

They should have developed a gut microbiome (poo) test as a priority or bought one on.

Keep to the largely unregulated market and tie the footprint stuff into the gut test and wrap it in a (better) designed app. Sell via channel but also direct for best reach. Lots of marketing - blogs, Tik tok, you tube, podcasts , cross marketing etc etc. Would need better branding and a decent marketing team. Sales team for channel only. Internal team for web. PR for awareness in press.

They could add pre diabetes testing - use the apple and other health apps API to bring in other health data.

Then recipes and offers with “health” food.

A small premium subscription (my favourite type of business)

A non scientific, but great story approach to healthcare monitoring around the subject de jour.

Now - that to me sounds better than a small company in the turnip fields of cambs selling a IGG tests to crystal gazers and homeopaths.

Forget the science - they aren’t a scientific diagnostics company anymore.

I realise paragraphs may stretch your concentration levels ol’ bean.

And yet you post but contribute nothing.

Saying out loud “I’m bored” is infantile and speaks to your cognitive limitations.

Ditching the “Crown Jewels” was a good idea. The name change was a good idea. Bringing in cavendish was a good idea.

The bad decisions:

They don’t understand what they should be (identity crisis)

They haven’t responded to the market they now sit in

They seem to think they can cheap out on marketing and sales.

They haven’t identified the USP they could potentially have.

It isn’t rocket science but I understand why they have chosen the decisions they have.

If I was on the board now I would pushing to bring in the companies that can do for CNSL the branding and marketing that cavendish did for production. A sales director - preferably US based - and a team of sales people put in place is needed due to the mainly channel model in place. Focus on one market. The USA I would suggest - Middle East and Australia if they have the funds. The UK is saturated and EU can tick along.

Dig deep. Get the best. Not the cheapest.

The alternative is they plug away with a “me to” product and get squeezed.

Currently I put this company at a 30-40% chance of success.

I don’t think anyone on here has done the maths to see the challenge or really grasped why yesterdays excuses and presentation was such a disaster.

Captain

You could be right. Well timed sell, that is for sure. Don’t see any green stripe rage tweeting but thought it’s holding was much higher.

Anyway, presentation I read was sub optimal so expect some

more sells . £4 mil in the bank and they can’t spend a few grand on speaker training or on AV /promo videos? Anyone else find that a bit…odd?

If anyone needs to invest in marketing, it is CNSL. But wait…

Did anyone ask the 3 questions?

1) with such positive cash flow why are you hawking around trying to get investors? (Oh and follow up - why haven’t you been successful?)

2) with such a large sum of money in the bank why haven’t you issued any investment or development plans? Normally a company sat on a large cash pile either thinks bad times are coming, don’t have the vision or capability to expand. Which is it?

3) where have the investment returns come from?

Oops. LOL.

Château Ducru-Beaucaillou, Saint-Julien 2021. Thoughts?