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Perhaps not Captain but I think £8-9 million is likely a fair market cap on the current news. Would I spend my own money on CNSL right now? Not a chance. Just knowing I had some financial connection to someone as disconnected from reality at the green stripe carer would be frankly too much for my dignity to take. Would give me the ick. Thankfully this penny stock has about as much appeal as a wet sock and I continue to avoid.
If I was still underwater which the green stripe loser is then I would hold. If I had made some margin I would sell. Much better stocks and opportunities out there.
Thanks Captain
Work load and getting so sick of the UK weather that I flew south to get some rays meant I totally missed the release. Not that it matters as you know, I don't have any financial in the success or failure of CNSL. I hope my pragmatic response was enjoyed by the green stripes but they are likely still moaning. Bless 'em. I could write that CNSL was the best stock in the world (it clearly isn't ) and they would still moan.
Fact is I said revenue would be under £10m and I am spot on. I also said that due to this the lag would account for much of the growth. Here we are. Was wrong on the cash burn as I believed it would be £3.8m based on the cash burn ratio they had previously. Hey ho.
Hope some of have made a bit of money out of the rise. Not a bad return if they bought at 2.25p or lower. Anyone claiming to have bought below and selling at 4.30 should of course be laughed at because the number of buys at that level were near zero.
For me, with the current news 3.75p seems fair value.
You leave the country for a week or so and look at what happens? I am sure I have been missed by all.
So, a RNS and the usual flurry of excitable spamming ensued. We even had over £100K traded on the day of release. Mostly small trades but they all add up and the price increased. On a purely superficial level you can see why. The RNS contained some great news. For me here are the plus points:
1) Margin has significantly increased on the products. This means the appointment of an operations guy has paid off and the production side is working efficiently with further optomisation due. This relieves the need to relocate.
2) Simon is gone replaced by Carolyn who has clearly been an asset as non exec director. This does still leave a hole on the financial side and so with the appointment I expect a new CFO to be appointed. I didn’t rate Simon and so this is a positive move.
3) Profit up substantially and a cue to costs is that cash balance is up. This indicates, but doesn’t guarantee that the cash burn is over.
Now, that is all good and it is encorouging that markets in India have also been identified as a potential growth area.
So why is this still at 4p? Why were buys outnumbered yesterday and why is the price drifting today?
As mentioned, with a stock it is very easy to get over excited and carried away. Most involved with ODX shares will know this more than any. With CNSL it is often what they don’t say rather than what they do that is always slightly alarming:
1) No news on the government action – this is a weight hanging over the company but with an election coming it remains doubtful if settlement can be reached and it is clear they do not believe they have a strong enough case to launch court proceedings.
2) No news on the US. We know two machines were sold with one delivering. But for this primary growth target to not be mentioned is worrying.
3) Revenue may LOOK good but is it? I predicted that revenue would be below £10 million and here we are. This means that much of the growth has come purely due to deferment. That is not good because this business isn’t going anywhere unless it can substantially grow.
4) My guess is that the company may show a marginal profit when the figures come out. Let’s be optomistic and say £500,000. On a straight optomistic multiple of 6 that would make the company worth about £3 million + goodwill and cash consideration. That makes the business worth about £9 million in my view without having visibility at this point of the P&L.
This explains why the shareprice is where it is and why, without further news will remain as such. The signs are good that the business may be turning the corner and its cash balance, unless fudged, is a clear indicator of that, but I wouldn’t get carried away. This is still very much a gamble stock with growth in share price based more on sentiment than realities.
Argue all you want and pretend this stock isn’t something it isn’
Captain
Very true. It's weird this board. Anti semitic tropes are allowed but highlighting them isn't as an example. Multiple logins although against the rules are tolerated. Spamming, yep. False market information, yep. But call it out? Nope.
It makes me laugh because the green stripes seem to take things very seriously and like any half wit they project way too much.
That is the fun bit. The mouth breathers are the entertainment it is just they are too dumb to realise it. Zoo animals. A anthropomorphic study of lives of futility. I don't actually care what the stock does - the only thing I would lose if this dire company pulls through is a bit of ego. Not a penny lost, not a penny gained either way. I am sure the green stripe idiots cannot compute such a thing. But, I hope they lose it all. I would drink a very expensive Pomeral if this goes under because the anger levels would be hilarious.
Poor Andy. Different name. Same equine excreta.
Shares in issue matters not a jot
Cash position will not be over £4m as everyone knows
Revenue is not £10m and not above that
No target is set. The one target that was set was deleted, even though it was paid for.
Andy says he wants to discuss the stock but can't even get basics facts right.
Just a bounce of the actual research rather than the constant spam:
Many are still bleating about CNSLs record of growth as announced in the previous trading update.
As my analysis showed at the time it was largely smoke and mirrors. This was because of the lack of governance in production facilities which meant that yields were significantly down. In English, that means they couldn't invoice (if you don't ship you don't invoice and you don't get paid).
This meant that instead of carrying around a £1m order book into the next financial period as they normally do, they carried £2.4million. As stated when announcing a £2.5m order book in the trading update:
"The current and forecasted orders (my note: £2.5m) are no longer able to be fulfilled before the year end, but will contribute to a stronger than expected opening order book for FY24."
What is the headline constantly being used? Likely this one:
Revenue increased 44% to £4.9m (H1 2022: £3.4m).
This "increase" was purely from Footprint. Food Detective is stagnant as stated in the RNS and confirmed by Jag in call.
So, take the additional circa £1.4m carried due to production yield/governance issues off the sales and you're actually looking at £3.5 million. A c £100K change from H1 2022. Even they state in the Trading Update Sept 23 that the increase was due to improved yields on FoodPrint.
Remember that due to improvements margin has recovered but then costs increased (excluding one offs) by £400,000 in this period. This is important to note for anyone with a historic perspective of ODX.
The board also stated in the update:
"H2 is expected to remain strong, although in the absence of any further backlog to fulfill, is expected to be slightly lower than H1 FY24"
In 2022 sales were £8.5 million
In 2023 sales were £7.5 million (a 12% drop and at the bottom of forecast)
Do you spot it? H2 traditionally produces higher revenue. H2 2022 for example was £5.1m.
To make this simple: H2 will be under £5m meaning the company is not expected to generate more than £10 million in a year. In fact, they admit they won't. Realistically we are going to be looking at a range of £8 to 9.5million and another loss with substantial cost increases due to "headwinds" and higher salary costs. This means that EBITDA will be neutral or negative. Again.
In other words a company with significant challenges in an increasingly competitive market making no progress except slightly recovering from the disaster of last FY. The news on the other items of jam will be of interest and I am sure many will crow on the "increase" in revenue. But it is very thin for anyone interested in this stock beyond the simpletons headlines.
Don't say you weren't warned. DYOR.
Thanks Andy for your valuable insights into the research post. Weird how you bleat that you want to discuss the share and yet totally ignore the original post to moan. I guess you believe using tropes to attacks others is acceptable?
I'm on a conference call currently and it is as boring as your posts.
Wow - must have been some raised blood pressure last night and this morning following the facts I produced from verifiable research. The toxic twins must be really upset with the number of green stripes. Bet not one of them has argued against the figures I listed.
Captain - you're wasting your time engaging.
Have fun.
A green stripe. What a surprise. Let me guess - I'm horrible with all my facts. Everything is rosey and if we ignore everything bad - like the fact that the current facility had to introduce basic ISO standards to squeeze as much capacity out of a facility the board said wasn't "adequate". Stuff like that.
All the facts are in the RNS. All the facts are in my post. You can choose to accept them or believe in magic fairy dust. I dot care either way. For me this is just fun. For the green stripe gambling addict it means the loss of life savings. Who is likely to have the agenda?
From the responses Captain is making I am assuming many are still bleating about CNSLs record of growth as announced in the previous trading update.
As my analysis showed at the time it was largely smoke and mirrors. This was because of the lack of governance in production facilities which meant that yields were significantly down. In English, that means they couldn't invoice (if you don't ship you don't invoice and you don't get paid).
This meant that instead of carrying around a £1m order book into the next financial period as they normally do, they carried £2.4million. As stated when announcing a £2.5m order book in the trading update:
"The current and forecasted orders (my note: £2.5m) are no longer able to be fulfilled before the year end, but will contribute to a stronger than expected opening order book for FY24."
What is the headline constantly being used? Likely this one:
Revenue increased 44% to £4.9m (H1 2022: £3.4m).
This "increase" was purely from Footprint. Food Detective is stagnant as stated in the RNS and confirmed by Jag in call.
So, take the additional circa £1.4m carried due to production yield/governance issues off the sales and you're actually looking at £3.5 million. A c £100K change from H1 2022. Even they state in the Trading Update Sept 23 that the increase was due to improved yields on FoodPrint.
Remember that due to improvements margin has recovered but then costs increased (excluding one offs) by £400,000 in this period. This is important to note for anyone with a historic perspective of ODX.
The board also stated in the update:
"H2 is expected to remain strong, although in the absence of any further backlog to fulfill, is expected to be slightly lower than H1 FY24"
In 2022 sales were £8.5 million
In 2023 sales were £7.5 million (a 12% drop and at the bottom of forecast)
Do you spot it? H2 traditionally produces higher revenue. H2 2022 for example was £5.1m.
To make this simple: H2 will be under £5m meaning the company is not expected to generate more than £10 million in a year. In fact, they admit they won't. Realistically we are going to be looking at a range of £8 to 9.5million and another loss with substantial cost increases due to "headwinds" and higher salary costs. This means that EBITDA will be neutral or negative. Again.
In other words a company with significant challenges in an increasingly competitive market making no progress except slightly recovering from the disaster of last FY. The news on the other items of jam will be of interest and I am sure many will crow on the "increase" in revenue. But it is very thin for anyone interested in this stock beyond the simpletons headlines.
Don't say you weren't warned. DYOR.
Third time lucky.
The RNS repeats what often happens. A mild piece of activity gets reported (input). No outputs are reported because they don't have any to crow about. This is designed to soften markets up for when outputs will be reported. Which will be soon.
I know this share better than anyone and it happens time and time again.
Announcing a webinar is not exactly earth shattering and is seen as "doing the job". The content of the webinar and appearances should be concerning but I'm not going to waste my time explaining why.
Don't say you were warned. DYOR etc etc.
Are the idiots all excited captain? Havent counted the green stripes up but more posts than trades.
As I said last night - volume is pitiful. Easy to pump and dump for the small time loser. May be a good time for those that listened to a stranger on the internet to get out unscathed before the inevitable happens although I'm almost wishing this does get to 4p just see the hysteria when the board dilute the stock to hell again.
After the ramp what comes next? Well obviously those deep underwater reporting the facts while spouting utter rubbish about fake bids.
The fact is that this stock is suffering from poor liquidity. A small ramp and a little bit of social media interest to sucker in new mugs hasn't changed the fundamentals.
Not even enough volume to sustain a weekend away.
# Trades 9
Vol. Sold 44,208
Sold Value £1.43k
Vol. Bought 3
Bought Value £N/A
Losers
Captain
That is great news. Many thanks. Erskine makes the paranoid gambling conspiracy theorist "carer" look like a towering intellect (which it isn't). Shame his spam is allowed as it is patently false information designed to deceive the easy to manipulate. Blocking the scot loser was a great move.
Have a great weekend.
Is the lying liar Erskine up to its old tricks?
You can smell the desperation emanating from his Scottish squat.
Price lower today simply die to spread changing . The fall will come soon enough .
No one has doubled there money on this stock except the directors who realise what mugs the small gambler who buy this dog are.
Low energy day:
# Trades 12
Vol. Sold 68,993
Sold Value £2.26k
Vol. Bought 35,946
Bought Value £1.22k
Seems to be following the trend leading up to the trading statement RNS . I can't be bothered but some may want to short this if they believe what normally happens next will happen.
Or don't. Either way. It would be funny the directors diluting the stock yet again as soon as it hits 4p. (The shareholders voted for the directors to have this power without needing approval believe it or not.
Welcome to the party suckers.
Nope - it’s your money. Hope you cash out on a small margin. If you don’t then just wait. You will end up like all the losers that have held and keep averaging down.
Cannot wait for the end of year accounts. The burn will be magnificent.
Pot kettle old boy.
If people are interested in this stick they should keep their powder dry until the year end RNS which should be here in the next few weeks.
What we’ve seen this last few days is a simple pump and dump.