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I hear we're your coming from like you I was comfortable when it was at 16p and doing very little and to be frank it's not hugely less now just psychology it feels like it is I hope this week we can get back to 16p and do nothing which is what I want to do but if there is another small capitulation il go again and have a top up wish everyone well as i go and pick up my brand new VW T cross dsg this afternoons afternoon lovely little runaround!
Hi Steve
TBH I have no idea and nor does anybody else.
I thought when I bought 100k for my wife at 15.79p it was the bottom...
There is no harm in averaging down if you believe you will make money in the long term, but it does of course involve increasing your exposure. If you have the money thats your choice.
Sadly, people near me put their entire pensions into SXX and lost the lot. How did they explain that to their wives...?
This is not SXX...it has material value...$5.2Billion NPV pre tax...that's £4.2 billion...and Nick has always said we should look at Asset Value, not Market value.
Theres an old saying "trying to catch a falling knife"
I dumped out big time last spring from 35p or so and have built up our position to 2.5 million shares at an average cost of 18p...thats a paper loss of £117k...doesn'tlook clever now but might do in March.
I think you need to look at basic facts:
Jiangxi, owned by the Chinese Government, bought 6% at c 16.2p, having previously bought 11.9 million through Valuestone at c32p...
BHP (45p) and NCM (40p) bought shares; BLackrock (5.52%) and Norges Bank bought shares at much higher than this. As far as we are aware, none of these are selling.
And Nick Mather and his interests have 19.88% 'skin in the game'. They have lost £112 million on paper in the last 10 months alone...
My own belief is that most people are fully invested with many believing the story of a bid coming.
They are not buying in the main, but fearful, nervous and impatient investors may be selling; shorters may have also driven the SP down; and ALGOS don't seem to be helping.
In short..."you pays your money, you makes your choice..."
Good luck!
Aah...sire...do you remember making this nonsensical statement...?
"RK1 we are selling the CGP shares, the RNS specifically metions 155m investment shares."
Hi red have we reached the bottom in share price slide in your opinion as I feel I'm forced to add more to bring my average down or will this downward movement continue?
All I've had is opinion that my idea is nonsense...
Its a talking point, but nobody with bid defence experience has responded...
And why is my suggestion any more nonsensical than some of the things that people like Quady keep banging on...?
"Quady, my guess is that there is about a 50% chance of them selling, versus about a 10% chance of them buying."
"To think that NC are giving much consideration to its stake in Solgold is quite preposterous. They have given no clue that they are thinking about a poison pill..."
You have absolutely no clue whatsoever what NCM is thinking...
"this latest RNS is just a case of delaying the inevitable drop down to circa 5p at which point a 20p per share takeover by 1 of the 3 main interested parties will look fantastic..."
"
get a hobby rk1 - honestly, for you own sake
Redknight:
I think the response you've had so far is adequate without me adding to it.
Have a nice day.
This poison pill nonsense is more dungeons and dragons fantasy ….. absolute garbage
Quady, my guess is that there is about a 50% chance of them selling, versus about a 10% chance of them buying. But its just a guess. NC dont have much of a future, and if they escape NMs clutches they will be selling assets imo.
FTSE breaks 8000pts.
Buoyed by banks, mining and oil stocks. Makes you wonder how or why smaller cap miners are new lows.
I'm looking forward to upcoming presentation too as think they'll put some meat on the bone with regard to target drilling planned for Rio and Chical. Still don't understand why they can't get on with this now. Not overly excited about the Aussie asset plans but the latter does seem to get some pi's more excited than Ecuador. Perhaps if we gather some rock chip samples with minor amounts of gold we'll soar by 50% lol!
Thank you Jerry, although I doubt NCM will sell its stake in Solgold, more likely to look to acquiring more if another fund raise takes place next year.
Cant believe that I am about to say this, but Quady I agree with you!
That RK post is one of his more daft ideas. To think that NC are giving much consideration to its stake in Solgold is quite preposterous. They have given no clue that they are thinking about a poison pill, but a lot of clues about getting NM to just upping the bid a bit and they will go quietly. Its a very strange attitude by NC but when you have so little support from your institutional investors, you really dont have much future. They are definitely sellers of assets, not buyers.
There is a lot more chance of NC selling its stake to BHP and they launch a bid, though I wouldnt rate that highly either. IMO!
Shorters will be scrambling to close :-)
Squabbles aside the SP is bouncing today, which is nice to see! Decks cleared, onwards and upwards!
Interesting faces laughing hard translate into question marks on here. Pity.
RK, stick with the kiddies fiction!
Suits you better!
Please Jezzoo let me answer Redknights question once I stop laughing. ????????????????.
Okay here goes. No I have no related experience, but if you say you do I don't believe you.
You don't carry out a poison pill defense by bidding for a company that has no revenue, no means of generating revenue in the near future and where there is no interest in a rival bid.
But I left the funniest bit till last.
NCM bids for a company that it has 10% in which is a minnow of a company compared to NCM and suddenly their share price increases to stop a takeover.
Sorry Redknight you may have convinced some on here that you have had this illustrious career on here.
But thinking like that would get you sacked even if you were CEO of the burger van sitting outside a pub on a cold wet Friday night.
So Jezzoo...please share with us your experience of using a poison pill bid defence...or any bid defence for that matter...?
I've worked with both J P Morgan and Goildman Sachs on bid defence...at companies worth up to £850 million...
I apologise if you have rich experience in this area and will gladly defer to anyone les on this Board who does...
Cheers
At this stage in proceedings it's whatever gets you through the day I suppose.
Maybe day dreaming helps.
Great Redknight a real deluded fantasy.
Why on earth would NCM bid for Solgold.
That's the most ridiculous post you have ever made and believe me that is really saying something.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/australias-newcrest-rejects-169-bln-bid-newmont-2023-02-15/
So heres a scenario...
NCM bids for Solgold...the share price soars, as investors anticipate a battle with Jiangxi, BHP (and others...)
So at the worst the price rises above 35p and NCM can at least get its money back...money that could be useful in defending itself against an unwanted bid, or...
The concept of the 'poison pill' defence is that the targeted company buys another company that the predator does not necessarily wish to own...
It also makes the target company significantly bigger, thereby inflating the potential cost to the predator.
Beneficial outcomes for NCM...?
1 It wards off unwanted interest from Newmont or
2 It fordces them to pay a much higher price (after all the Board is supposed to look after its shareholdewr interests...?)
£ It succeeds in acquiring Solgold, which surely was the whole point of taking a stake in the first place...remember they were in there first...
$ Or at the very least, another bidder is successful at a price very much higher than NCM paid for their stake...after all they decided 2 years ago to retain that stake as a 'strategic investment'...
Red,Alot Of Trade There Wouldnt Want To Miss Out
Looks like it Bubbles - investment conferences coming up too
AAC,that's fine no worries
Morning DinnerMoney, I would say that the perfect time to explain to the market is the day after the merger, allowing for an update the day after the strategic review.