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I don't think much depends on the NCM/NM deal. Apart from the confirmed reality that NCM won't be buying SOLG. There was a time when a possible NCM v BHP fight was on the cards. But not likely now.
With Chinese influence building in Ecuador and major history breaking Trade deal expected soon... I think it's down to the Chinese and whether BHP or any other super major out there fancies taking them on.
Fort, if you think much depends on the NCM/NM deal, when do you see a bid for solg arriving? Still this year, I assume?
rcgl2,
Newmont are no fools and no real fans of BHP so you never know.... they might just offload the 10% SOLG stake (should they acquire NCM) to the chinese. Or... in a back scratching exercise (I'm sure there are many between BHP and NM) they could sell BHP the 10% stake. Now just imagine that... just when SOLG were keen to see BHP diluted... BHP could end up with an even greater stake than they had before.
Much depends on Newmont/NCM deal and how they see non core assets. Certainly interesting to watch it unfold.
I believe we are overdue Cornerstone's MRE for its Bramaderos property- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-wide-intersections-over-1g-120000161.html Even though they are late again maybe we receive some pleasant news here in the future
Poison pill defences aren't allowed in the UK under the takeover code. As they allow the board of the company to frustrate an offer without it being put to shareholders.
Also it involves issuing more shares to existing shareholders.
Looks like NM will up their offer and NCM will be no more. NM will then be holding 10% of Solg... This just feels like any competitive tension as between NCM and BHP for Solg is now gone, can't see NCM bidding for Solg now and could see NM dumping the stake as non-core/low priority and without really having to worry about taking a loss on it since it would have been acquired through the takeover and not by them directly.
So good job we have Jiangxi onboard now to crank up the tension with BHP again!
Personally, I think we have just been taken for a ride, big and small PIs. As it stands, any narrative we choose to believe is largely subjective and sadly we can just hope that our interest is aligned with the other parties selling rather than those possibly trying to buy us cheap. End of.
Yep and there it's at 15:10...code 1 trade lol!!:):)
red..I think the old saying is " don't catch a falling knife " lol
Not sure how someone else misreading something and susbequently correcting their own error in anyway justifies your dilusion?
I hear we're your coming from like you I was comfortable when it was at 16p and doing very little and to be frank it's not hugely less now just psychology it feels like it is I hope this week we can get back to 16p and do nothing which is what I want to do but if there is another small capitulation il go again and have a top up wish everyone well as i go and pick up my brand new VW T cross dsg this afternoons afternoon lovely little runaround!
Hi Steve
TBH I have no idea and nor does anybody else.
I thought when I bought 100k for my wife at 15.79p it was the bottom...
There is no harm in averaging down if you believe you will make money in the long term, but it does of course involve increasing your exposure. If you have the money thats your choice.
Sadly, people near me put their entire pensions into SXX and lost the lot. How did they explain that to their wives...?
This is not SXX...it has material value...$5.2Billion NPV pre tax...that's £4.2 billion...and Nick has always said we should look at Asset Value, not Market value.
Theres an old saying "trying to catch a falling knife"
I dumped out big time last spring from 35p or so and have built up our position to 2.5 million shares at an average cost of 18p...thats a paper loss of £117k...doesn'tlook clever now but might do in March.
I think you need to look at basic facts:
Jiangxi, owned by the Chinese Government, bought 6% at c 16.2p, having previously bought 11.9 million through Valuestone at c32p...
BHP (45p) and NCM (40p) bought shares; BLackrock (5.52%) and Norges Bank bought shares at much higher than this. As far as we are aware, none of these are selling.
And Nick Mather and his interests have 19.88% 'skin in the game'. They have lost £112 million on paper in the last 10 months alone...
My own belief is that most people are fully invested with many believing the story of a bid coming.
They are not buying in the main, but fearful, nervous and impatient investors may be selling; shorters may have also driven the SP down; and ALGOS don't seem to be helping.
In short..."you pays your money, you makes your choice..."
Good luck!
Aah...sire...do you remember making this nonsensical statement...?
"RK1 we are selling the CGP shares, the RNS specifically metions 155m investment shares."
Hi red have we reached the bottom in share price slide in your opinion as I feel I'm forced to add more to bring my average down or will this downward movement continue?
All I've had is opinion that my idea is nonsense...
Its a talking point, but nobody with bid defence experience has responded...
And why is my suggestion any more nonsensical than some of the things that people like Quady keep banging on...?
"Quady, my guess is that there is about a 50% chance of them selling, versus about a 10% chance of them buying."
"To think that NC are giving much consideration to its stake in Solgold is quite preposterous. They have given no clue that they are thinking about a poison pill..."
You have absolutely no clue whatsoever what NCM is thinking...
"this latest RNS is just a case of delaying the inevitable drop down to circa 5p at which point a 20p per share takeover by 1 of the 3 main interested parties will look fantastic..."
"
get a hobby rk1 - honestly, for you own sake
Redknight:
I think the response you've had so far is adequate without me adding to it.
Have a nice day.
This poison pill nonsense is more dungeons and dragons fantasy ….. absolute garbage
Quady, my guess is that there is about a 50% chance of them selling, versus about a 10% chance of them buying. But its just a guess. NC dont have much of a future, and if they escape NMs clutches they will be selling assets imo.
FTSE breaks 8000pts.
Buoyed by banks, mining and oil stocks. Makes you wonder how or why smaller cap miners are new lows.
I'm looking forward to upcoming presentation too as think they'll put some meat on the bone with regard to target drilling planned for Rio and Chical. Still don't understand why they can't get on with this now. Not overly excited about the Aussie asset plans but the latter does seem to get some pi's more excited than Ecuador. Perhaps if we gather some rock chip samples with minor amounts of gold we'll soar by 50% lol!
Thank you Jerry, although I doubt NCM will sell its stake in Solgold, more likely to look to acquiring more if another fund raise takes place next year.
Cant believe that I am about to say this, but Quady I agree with you!
That RK post is one of his more daft ideas. To think that NC are giving much consideration to its stake in Solgold is quite preposterous. They have given no clue that they are thinking about a poison pill, but a lot of clues about getting NM to just upping the bid a bit and they will go quietly. Its a very strange attitude by NC but when you have so little support from your institutional investors, you really dont have much future. They are definitely sellers of assets, not buyers.
There is a lot more chance of NC selling its stake to BHP and they launch a bid, though I wouldnt rate that highly either. IMO!
Shorters will be scrambling to close :-)
Squabbles aside the SP is bouncing today, which is nice to see! Decks cleared, onwards and upwards!
Interesting faces laughing hard translate into question marks on here. Pity.
RK, stick with the kiddies fiction!
Suits you better!