Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Some great responses (with vast majority constructive). As @Manifesto has put it with respect to SNG private investors, "...Investors are too well informed to be influenced by them". Completely agree. This is one of the best informed boards I've come across, thanks to many of the seasoned posters and the new and has been so for long time.
Keeping my previous caveats in place. I thought I'd put some thoughts together. As we know our focus is strongly on the US [1], which has a strategy to stockpile for future variants and new pandemics, with analysts stating a stockpiling strategy of 5-10% of the total population as being reasonable. Which would equate to > 48-93m units (US: 16.5-30m units, EU: 22.5-45m, UK: 3-6m, Japan: 6-12m + many other countries). Demand would outstrip supply and 100,000 units just wouldn't be sufficient. Even if we give a lead time of approx. 10 months, this just wouldn't be enough.
A 100,000 units for the US market alone would imply 1m unit production (i.e. 3-6% of the actual requirements). 1 million unit/m scaleup could potentially reach a 66% of the US demand. Demand from other countries in this equation would become a huge scale-up effort on part of SNG.
One poster (upupandawaybby) pointed out that: Analyst estimates used sales of 250,000 treatments per month i.e. 3 million a year for target SP of £75. This is indeed a very good point. Of course, we go with a one step at a time strategy, looking forward to the results.
1. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/biden-looks-to-invest-30-billion-in-preventing-future-pandemics
Hey - if RM has stated that then fair enough I'll change my mind. Has he said how much - we could do Xx£1000 and project 2022 revenues but has to be based on something not plucked out of thin air.
How many patients admitted to hospital in US in peak of last wave perhaps?
Hi Ndn71: I don't think the stockpiling angle is a way of ramping the upside. It is not even an angle, but a pillar of this investment. RM has stated the importance of stockpiling more than once. The US Gov are investing heavily in 'pandemic preparedness' which will most certainly include stockpiling of the most effective therapeutics for future outbreaks.
Can I just check. Has the company or any government indicated they are or will stockpile SNG001.
I suspect the company will be focused on ensuring the supply chain is ready to go so pre-approval stock may be in production but as with all product launches that is a commercial risk / benefit. 12 weeks demand in supply chain with the ability to flex production (perhaps two contract manufacturers) would be the sensible way to go. I'll hold off getting excited about a stockpile order until someone reliable says its a reality - until then the SP driver will be the clinical results followed by any variant news
I’m no expert but the size of Synairgen is pretty irrelevant, thats why they partner. If the size of the orders are huge, partners will deliver.
Akron Biotech will provide current good manufacturing practices (cGMP)-compliant solutions to aid in developing and commercializing Synairgen's candidate. The partnership leverages Akron's recombinant protein manufacturing expertise and large-scale production capacity to rapidly scale SNG001 production, the companies noted.
Paid disruptors are trying very hard to vere away from facts
and potential...Wasting their time here as Investors are too
well informed to be influenced by them....Looking forward to
news and their quick exit...
If there's demand, supply/production capabilities with partners or others won't be a problem as pointed out before by trusted posters; it'll just be a case of when not if
Jwd…you’re a bot, surely!
The same way that Amazon evolved from just selling books.
It’s not something which would happen overnight but if demand was there they would need to look at other ways to make it happen.
Get to your senses how can sng produce so many to be stockpiled around the world.
well done Jwd222. Like your brain, it is too small to comprehend that there will be governmental support if and when P3 results are positive.
Sng Is small they cant produce enough to be stockpiled
"Where vaccine and biological therapeutics manufacturing capacity is concerned, BARDA will continue to enter into public-private partnerships with manufacturers to build and/or retrofit medical countermeasure production facilities within the U.S., increasing domestic access to medical countermeasures."
https://www.phe.gov/about/barda/stratplan/Pages/barda-guiding-principles.aspx
Seeing as BARDA are the most likely to make first pre-order for SNG001, it is logically to assume they will assist in the supply chain to ensure more product is reaching the American public.
I don’t disagree HSD but I think that’s where discussions about joint ventures and licensing deals then come in.
We all know that money talks and if governments were looking for big orders and throwing enough cash at it, there would need to be a strategic rethink to make it happen.
Stockpiling will be out of the question if the company's only producing 100,000 treatment courses per month for the foreseeable future. The world is likely to use any available stock produced in the next couple of years.
Nations spend vast budgets on the military, we all know this, stock piles that often/usually don't get used other than in training exercises. Yes this is historical self preservation and a deterrent as well as economically huge through manufacturing, supply chain, maintenance etc. But my point is that with good P3 results and the apparent/obvious (to us) unique offering SNG001 offers in what remains a war on covid then why wouldn't the US stock pile and if/when the US stockpiles, the majority of the world will follow. Once in circulation and in frequent use the medical world will soon see the results in real use and stock piling will/should ramp up. Think what benefit we would have had if this drug was in the cupboard (or fridge or freezer) at the start of this pandemic and surely you want to have it to hand for the next variant or other as well as to hold for copd/asthma when (if) approved in the future.
Not long people, hang in there
Thanks Tommy. Bumping this up.
The administration of President Joe Biden plans to have 4 million various therapies to treat COVID-19 in its pandemic arsenal by the end of January, according to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday that cited sources. Included are a monoclonal antibody, preventative drugs for immunocompromised patients and new antivirals waiting for Food and Drug Administration approvals.
All government will be focussed on what comes next
Thanks for your responses.
I thought posters here would die laughing reading my request, as shelf life will be the last consideration users will have once it's available.
All stocked up one day and fresh out the next!
3 years refrigeration
5 years freezer
Think it was reported in results September 21 rns.
wrt stockpiling please, - where has shelf life been discussed in the past, - any links?
What shelf life are we expecting.
In 2009 the US ordered 50million doses of Tamiflu and the UK 30 and that was for a drug that didn’t really work. And this was in response to Swine flu which didn’t demonstrate the death and negative economic impact that COVID-19 has. These are stats for just a hand full of countries but give and indication of the volume. Not wanting to ramp too much but the possible upside here is huge!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockpiling_antiviral_medications_for_pandemic_influenza
Sorry, where has this 10 million order been plucked from? I get that stockpiling will occur, but why would they want 10 million doses, and how could SNG realistically produce that amount within a reasonable time frame?
Don't get me wrong, I would be happy to see such an order (and ones from other countries), just not sure how you have arrived at such a figure.
"An SP of £75 was based on us selling 250,000 treatments per month so just 3 million a year
Our first pre order after P3 could be 10 million treatments on its own for USA"
@upupandawaybby that is the very interesting part as the US would not be the only country wanting to stockpile. I sense that there will be an impressive array of RNS to follow the results.
An SP of £75 was based on us selling 250,000 treatments per month so just 3 million a year
Our first pre order after P3 could be 10 million treatments on its own for USA