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This is short term correction due rising covid over winter, reserves release threats which if happen will only work short term then have to be rebought back at some point.Come spring there’s going to be another massive demand shock again with reopen travel all at the same time.So happy just to hold and ride it out.
Shell 1,77% down
BP 0,44%
....and going green needs renewables to compete with fossil. Cheap oil disincentivises transition.
The politicians know they can't have it both ways.
What's bad for some is an opportunity for others. RDS is beginning to offer attractive buy-back levels for those that took profits around £18. A 10% profit is neat. I’m showing it here in comparison to Chevron: https://invst.ly/wogqf . Both are dropping back along with OP but RDS has been the more volatile of the two over the last two months and, if Brent continues to weaken, the low-mid 1500’s look possible for RDS. For its part, Brent seems likely to test the blue trend here: https://invst.ly/wogmm in the region of $75 in the next week or two.
It hasn’t touched that line since late August and a visit looks due. It’s a 19 month trend so breaking through it downwards would signal a significant change in direction and a levelling out at the very least. Of course a bounce upwards off the line would send a different message. It’s interesting to speculate on the likely direction of OP as we move beyond the seasonal winter lows - with January potentially marking something of a low point. We may not have seen the top for oil yet.
Simple supply and demand. The political climate just makes it easier to justify
Largely in line with what others said when results were released but results didn’t not say the below with COP26 going on: “Bloomberg released a report this week that oil and gas explorers in the United States may point to politics as the reason that they are holding back on upping production to ease oil prices, but the real reason is much simpler: they are making money hand over fist. According to figures from Deloitte LLP, U.S. oil companies are making more money now than at any other point in the entire history of the nation’s shale revolution. “And this may just be the beginning,” Bloomberg Markets wrote. “Free cash flow, the key metric watched by investors, probably will increase by 38% next year, presuming oil prices remain elevated.””
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Is-Finally-Exercising-Restraint-And-Biden-Is-****ed.html
I agree, the chances of another full lockdown in the UK is relatively small IMO.
The UK government will do almost everything to avoid one. Plan B - masks, passports, et al - before that.
There will be no U.K. lockdown.
well that was a bad few days for shell. not sure if it was just cv19 , oil price fall . but his biden doing a investigation into companies fixing the lng price, or am i wrong. anyway i see royal mail are paying a special divi, well van the man take note, give something to the small shareholders from the 7 billion sale. you dont want char333 to become a activist investor like dann lobe lol. 10 weeks till results so lets hope the fall stops + a period of calm ensues. it seems a uk lockdown will come + that wont be welcome for the markets. but weve been here b4 , so lets see if in a few weeks things are back up again.
This is how RDS has tracked Brent recently (last couple of months): https://invst.ly/wntxn
So it could have been worse for the sp - around 1570 - if it had been following it closely since the 27th September.
For me, its uncertainty about how bad COVID winter will be. If bad - oil will get hammered (which will be an opportunity/ bad news) for interested parties.
That's a chunky fall, far worse than the market. Just Brent crude fall?
" BvB told staff the only changes required to meet the definition are for the CEO and CFO, board meetings and the AGM to be located in London. No more than a dozen staff will move."
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It almost sounds like a brass plate exercise for tax purposes.
I know that when a UK company relocates to the EU - because of the B-thingy - the Europeans require senior staff and support services to actually move office....possibly UK isn't so fussy.
It is good to have some perspective from a SHell insider. Sounds like business as usually, which should hopefully keep the cost of the change low.
"Where are they going to have their main headquarters....they used to have the Shell centre on the Southbank which would have been suitable but lots of that complex has been sold off. Are they going to be sited in London?"
Most of the site was sold to a Middle Eastern developer but all Shell's London staff are based there, some in a new purpose-built tower. There is plenty of space, particularly with the likelihood of more home working. BvB told staff the only changes required to meet the definition are for the CEO and CFO, board meetings and the AGM to be located in London. No more than a dozen staff will move.
It isn't retaliation for the court case: Shell is bound by the verdict regardless of the move. This has been in the pipeline ever since the restructuring of 2005, it was just a case of when someone would bite the bullet. BvB told staff he could have left it for someone else to fix but said "I'm an engineer by training and when I can see both a problem and a solution, it's in my nature to solve the problem." Possibly the Permian $7bn burning a hole in his pocket was the catalyst for action.
Moving production out of the NL is very unlikely: the Pernis complex is being developed into a new energies hub and a large offshore windfarm is a key part of Shell's strategy around hydrogen. I suppose it's possible office roles could be moved in future, but employee rights are very strong in NL.
Disclaimer: this is my opinion, expressed in a personal capacity, etc. I've been lurking here for a while, interested in what may happen to the value of my (small) RDS shareholdings. Events in the past couple of weeks have prompted me to put my head above the parapet. :)
Isnt the natural buyer for this equity RDSB?
IT is going into a RDSB LNG facility and RDSB know more about it than any buyer.
I know they are trying to rationalise but there is no point throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Or is Prelude not worth doing? And if so, why bother with the FID?
They tried to flog it in 2019 so might be a decent price for us and will keep Prelude busy....
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/364917/stake-in-shells-crux-gas-field-off-australia-up-for-sale-as-fid-looms/
Link explaining the procedure for Hargreaves Lansdown clients.
https://www.hl.co.uk/help/dealing/corporate-actions/how-can-i-obtain-company-information/how-do-i-attend-andor-vote-at-a-company-meeting
"although supply issues look like persisting, particularly with Chips"
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I bought some chips yesterday, there seemed to be plenty. Aldi if you're looking for some!!
He does say a potential reprieve on oil prices, so hedging his bets really. Perhaps hoping to reign in Saudi or Russian enthusiasm for supply increases on the 2nd December OPEC + Meeting.
I'm not sure its that convincing in relation to a supply surplus. The panicdemic is looking to be largely behind us, although supply issues look like persisting, particularly with Chips. There is a repetitive history of US breaks in production through the Winter months, also we have no idea how severe the Winter months will be particularly on the East Coast of the States & how many customers are there looking to switch from gas to oil at the moment!
NSS - For me the jury is out on this one, but like you I find it surprising that they are even talking about surpluses yet. It certainly did not figure highly as a scenario with me. Quite a lot of big variables out there as well: Nordstream 2, any escalation of the Poland Belarus situation, & with Putin playing Call of Mother Russia & shooting satellites down for fun this Christmas!
Where are they going to have their main headquarters....they used to have the Shell centre on the Southbank which would have been suitable but lots of that complex has been sold off. Are they going to be sited in London?