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Ha! I was quoting stevebt's post ... the 'make money' opportunity came and went in October. For those who took profits, it will be about re-loading for the next round.
No one knows how this will play over the next few days but events of the last week are certainly discouraging an increase in oil production in the US and amongst OPEC+ producers. It's been perfectly timed for the OPEC meeting this week. The glut of supply that was building in 2019, prior to Covid, is gone -so I think the next recovery wave should be pretty solid. But, in the meanwhile, the 19th month rising Brent trend (blue) is now dead - having 'kissed the line' and fallen back this morning: https://invst.ly/wr7zy
Boyo.. you excluded almost everybody on this board in your first line........!
If you know what you’re doing you could make a lot of money trading this share ......
The current demand uncertainty caused by Omicron plus the downward political pressures on OP inevitably mean that RDS isn't heading up right now. So 'making money' will depend on acquiring at, or near, the bottom. Many traders will wait to see signs of a reversal. If Omicron proves to be highly transmissible yet relatively harmless then it may mark a turning point in the Covid 19 story.
You mean day trading?
If you know what you’re doing you could make a lot of money trading this share especially if it’s in an isa, if you don’t know what your doing just hold and take the dividends.
I learnt my lesson last year on short term trades .
This year , when the share price hit £18 , i was so tempted to sell and then try to buy back at £15. Even with the recent drop , the share price still held up and has bounced back above £16. Hopefully, It continues its upward momentum soon.
For now best to stay calm and do nothing…
JPM (us bank)is predicting oil @ $125 next year and $150 in 2023, based on OPEC+lack of capacity to pump more (and lack of inclination?)and rapid recovery in consumption.They also cite sharp fall in new explo/extraction.RDSB still a LTH for me.
Spot on they all dumped their shares to buy in cheaper and start spreading fear. Didnt work.
Hi. No doubt Boris will find a way for people o die with cv19, not live with it. Peppa pig watch out. Complete cretin.
For all those doomsayers please go back to bed and stop spreading fear and panic. It's another variant and as usual the market has over reacted.. There have been cases here for weeks and the data to date shows that it is a milder variant albeit more contageous. Hopefully we will see a slow rise back up this week. Soo sick of people saying another lock down is coming.. Well it ain't, the virus is here to stay and we need to find a way to live with it....
Oil currently up > 2.4% and opec will slash production at the first sign there is trouble. Meeting decision Thursday. They have hinted they will make aggressive cuts if needed, to prevent over supply.
This could well end up triggering a significant OP rise if the new variant turns out to be a non-event.
I would keep hold of it, this new covid variant is either going to make the markets fall or crash. When the dust settles and the markets have over reacted, as they usually do, then there will be bargains to be had including RDSB at much lower value than 1550p
Fusion98
Fair value at 70$....Could be anything be I’d guess around £17 per share.
I think it’s less to do with the oil price in the very short term and more to do with this bloody Covid. More importantly what will it mean to us. Normality, Lockdown, transport etc etc….
If its as early stories report nothing to worry about I think Shell will get back to its highs and beyond as it throws off shed loads of cash.
Could be a Bumpy Monday with new rules announced and first 2 cases in UK. Well done at least for acting early this time....
Whilst we don't know enough yet about this variant this could be the beginning of more troubles ahead for all of us and our oil investments.....
I have £30k to invest on Tuesday. Where to put it now if anywhere ???
You are right Boyo I also think Supply and Demand will dictate in long term and I hope the Shale industry have learned from the Pump and Dump with borrowed policies of the past, certainly this will make OPEC+ focus not to increase supply over the next 3 to 6 months . But this coordinated Oil releases around the World and Covid uncertainties during Winter And Spring might create a volatility in short term IMHO.
That's an interesting table Larry, not that I have much clue about the process. I guess that the WTI futures prices for the return dates become rather significant together with the premium charged in terms of volume. To me the offer appears to approximate to a 'free loan' provided it is managed correctly. I think it equates to about five days of US production, so not a magic bullet in terms of reversing the nineteen month trend. Supply and demand will ultimately rule but the difference this time will be that US producers seem very unlikely to fight OPEC+ for market share, which has proved to be highly counterproductive since 2014.
Hi Boyo here is the details and timetable of the US oil release, it looks like it will be done between December to April.
https://www.energy.gov/fecm/articles/summary-50-million-barrel-release-strategic-petroleum-reserve
I especially like this bit
"The Gulf of Mexico will be one of the last basins standing, in part due to its ability to produce at such a low greenhouse gas intensity. Exploration and production in the Gulf will continue for a long time,” she says, highlighting the company plans to drill 25 exploration wells in the next three years."
Oil at almost 72$ is more than comfortable with me.
Shell make handsome profits at this price and gas was also up over 7$ on Friday so we are in a good position.
I also like some of the renewable investments made recently and I think they will have spent a good few dollars on these which down the road is where our future is.
For once this could be quite lucky for me as I’m buying a decent amount of Shell and BP on Tuesday…
Strange indeed Bald.
I think things will get much worse for consumers in April as the prices will be massively hiked up and the cap will have to be amended or replaced completely.
I don't see any companies offering sweeties to move until at least 2023 and even then Shell being a provider of the oil and gas and a supplier of the power will be in a great position to be very competitive.....
Im certain this will happen...Actually WTFDIK......
NSS
Boyobach, good points as usual. Shell could 'do a deal' with the regulator (although I cannot imagine what that would be!), spend millions on integrating those Bulb customers, then spend many millions more subsidising them over the winter months (when they use the most energy...all at a loss), then when April comes & the standard tariff increases dramatically they jump ship to another provider (if there are any left by then). Seems a strange way to run a business....but these are strange times.
The consensus here seems to be that it would be good for Shell Energy to attract Bulb's customers but not at any price. So, as NSS says, there's potentially a deal to be struck with the Regulator. On the issue of hedging - I hope that RDS' expertise and resources will have mitigated the damage but, equally, I'm not expecting stellar results from that division this year. I think that people like me who have come to the end of their contracts and are now on the standard tariff will be looking hard at all the options when the cap gets raised next year. There's no guarantee that punters acquired now will stay with Shell - so the cost of taking them on needs to be strictly minimised: the time for 'offers' and 'discounts' to retain them is further down the track.