Member Info for NeilBWallace

Poltava sits on the EASTERN side of the Dnieper river. So I dont see what the talk about the western side of Dniepro river has to do with much. Does anyone really know what the Russians are interested in? To describe the mines as "safe" seems a little time dependent. 1 year sure, safe for 3 years even if the Russians advance at a snails pace they will eventually reach the mines? Who can say? Very risky punt, and priced as such. Slava Ykraine , but Ferrexpo- not for me.

Hi,

I think the Russians may be attempting to head for East bank at Dniepro rather than West. I think they will stay in East Ukraine. Timescale 6-12 months.

Why do you think that if the Russians occupy the mines that Ferrexpo would definitely cease to be? Is this proven. Is there a possibility that Ferrexpo would simply continue under Russian jurisdiction? Not pleasant morally, but the mines would still continue.

At present the Russians are poised to attack Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Some thinking is that after this the Russians will then fight towards Dniepro on the Dnieper river.

Putting aside the morality of the Russian invasion, I guess the obvious question is to what extent would Ferrexpo be affected if the Russians occupied the mines.

If there were no change then Ferrexpo is priced at 43p. As the Russians advance towards Dniepro the price will likely fall precipitously perhaps to around 20p but after that will remain stable in my view.

Or of course the Russians never get anywhere near Poltava. But the route to a Ukrainian victory seems very unclear to me at present.

I betted on a Starmer goverment doing sweet diddly to harm North Sea Industry -business as usual behind the Green talk. So far appears to be paying off (if that's the reason anyway). Fingers crossed it continues.

My understanding is Deltic focus on gas not oil.

My view is Labour Government while pushing Green, will quietly compromise after the election on North Sea Gas. They aren't going to run the risk of allowing people to freeze in the winter, green tech is not yet constant, Nuclear not fully online. Alternative gas sources unreliable or hostile. Hence took a punt here at low price. You win some, you loose some - but the reasoning seems to me fairly sound. That's the nature of this game.

Took a punt, pure play. But believe after Election Energy reality will sink in. Risky.

Sold at 149 from 130 av. Think both the FTSE and Ferrexpo too high at moment.
Unless there is a peace deal the Russians are going to continue to attack energy infrastructure and making rail transportation difficult. I cant see justification for 150 sp at moment, the share price will continue to be pummelled. Divi cut etc. Long term probably 4-5 - few year hold. But I think there will be fall back to 100 unless something drastic happens.

My prayers to the heroism and suffering of the Ukrainian people.

Ukr victory double , stalemate same.

And if the Russians win?

Sold in the big rise last week. My main fear is if Russia launches an attack towards Dnieper River. Even if they got 1/3 the way there - that's going to create massive uncertainty pressure on Shareprice as folks panic. Likely the Russians would do nothing if they captured mines - just let operations continue. But its uncertain.
I just cant see Ukr winning, or Russia backing down over sanctions - so that leaves Ferrexpo in a continually uncertain situation. Just my opinion and to holders - hope Im completely wrong. Its a great share.

I suspect that if Evraz purely supplied medical equipment that gave big profits to Russia then it would be sanctioned. For me the fact it's steel for tanks, steel for infrastructure is pretty irrelevant - they are sanctioning Gas imports and would simply make up any excuse to sanction Evraz.

The issue is to choke off cash to Russia and force them to the negotiating table and use the sanctions as leverage. INMO.
All is not yet lost and just hope for a quick peace.

It does seem to be rather coincidentally times with Chelsea sale and also 9th May perhaps.

Government has to be seen to be perpetually installing sanctions to be seen doing something. They could sanction all the superyaughts one week, but it looks better to drip feed this each week

My hopes are on the RA "charity fund" from sale of Chelsea which will publicly and ostentatiously be spent helping to rebuild Ukraine, and get us out of the hole.

Otherwise its write of Evraz Russia and make do with value of Evraz N.America.

Anyone hazard a guess what value of Evraz N.A might be?

How about RA "encouraged" to sell his Evraz N.A stake, and the company rebranded. No more reason for sanctions.

Evraz Russia split off and potentially written off for some considerable time to come.

The Russians have already withdrawn from 1/2 Ukraine, I doubt they will be back. The war wont stop till Mariopol with its "Nazi" azov battalion is destroyed. Thus allowing Putin to claim victory of the "Nationalistic Elements". There are just some holdouts left in the city. The Russians will also capture some more territory to make Donetsk/Luhansk viable. But in my opinion that will be that.
The Russians as it is have proven themselves incapable of capturing major cities. Its taken them weeks to capture Mariopol despite it being surrounded etc. It wont continue indefinitely.

Whether there is a formal peace treaty and sanctions lifted, or it just descends into a stalemate where they lob shells at each other along the line is the question. Probably the former but who knows.

Whether it ends in a peace treaty

What noone has mentioned is how coincidental it is for a major European war to follow so shortly after the worst pandemic in who knows how many years. For me there has got to be a correlation with this.

Why put out this story now which happened on 3rd March? It seems to me to all about rehabilitating RA, not only was he negotiating peace, but was almost poisoned by nasty Putin.
Putting aside, that 1 week ago the press was basically braying for RA's blood.

I sense we are being prepared for a peace settlement and a lifting of sanctions relatively soon.

Looks like the British press are subtlety starting to rehabilitate RA in readiness for business as usual. Wasn't he the devil incarnate last week..?

Apparently one Russian Oligarch is getting round the sanctions by doing some trust sleigh of hand and moving his dosh to the British oversees territory of the British Virgin Islands. All perfectly legit. Looks like Londongrad's getting back to business as usual. Perhaps not too long to wait now.

With Peace it is highly likely Evr shares will eventually start again. The world will move on to the next cause celebre. Roman Abramovic wont be the devil incarnate). As soon as the coast is clear formally outraged Western Companies will pour back into Russia tripping over each other in search of good profits.

Holders at the EVR slump will likely get some last scare to try and make them relinquish their holding at 5p but if they keep their nerve. They are likely going to do very nicely in deed.

It will be just as it ever was.

Meaning share price of £2 ish ? will alot of costs and messing around. Fine for me. That's why I'd personally be looking to get shut of any Russian connection asap. Others who bought higher will want to stick around.

It's way out of our hands whatever happens anyway.