The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Sold at 149 from 130 av. Think both the FTSE and Ferrexpo too high at moment.
Unless there is a peace deal the Russians are going to continue to attack energy infrastructure and making rail transportation difficult. I cant see justification for 150 sp at moment, the share price will continue to be pummelled. Divi cut etc. Long term probably 4-5 - few year hold. But I think there will be fall back to 100 unless something drastic happens.
My prayers to the heroism and suffering of the Ukrainian people.
Ukr victory double , stalemate same.
And if the Russians win?
Sold in the big rise last week. My main fear is if Russia launches an attack towards Dnieper River. Even if they got 1/3 the way there - that's going to create massive uncertainty pressure on Shareprice as folks panic. Likely the Russians would do nothing if they captured mines - just let operations continue. But its uncertain.
I just cant see Ukr winning, or Russia backing down over sanctions - so that leaves Ferrexpo in a continually uncertain situation. Just my opinion and to holders - hope Im completely wrong. Its a great share.
I suspect that if Evraz purely supplied medical equipment that gave big profits to Russia then it would be sanctioned. For me the fact it's steel for tanks, steel for infrastructure is pretty irrelevant - they are sanctioning Gas imports and would simply make up any excuse to sanction Evraz.
The issue is to choke off cash to Russia and force them to the negotiating table and use the sanctions as leverage. INMO.
All is not yet lost and just hope for a quick peace.
It does seem to be rather coincidentally times with Chelsea sale and also 9th May perhaps.
Government has to be seen to be perpetually installing sanctions to be seen doing something. They could sanction all the superyaughts one week, but it looks better to drip feed this each week
My hopes are on the RA "charity fund" from sale of Chelsea which will publicly and ostentatiously be spent helping to rebuild Ukraine, and get us out of the hole.
Otherwise its write of Evraz Russia and make do with value of Evraz N.America.
Anyone hazard a guess what value of Evraz N.A might be?
How about RA "encouraged" to sell his Evraz N.A stake, and the company rebranded. No more reason for sanctions.
Evraz Russia split off and potentially written off for some considerable time to come.
The Russians have already withdrawn from 1/2 Ukraine, I doubt they will be back. The war wont stop till Mariopol with its "Nazi" azov battalion is destroyed. Thus allowing Putin to claim victory of the "Nationalistic Elements". There are just some holdouts left in the city. The Russians will also capture some more territory to make Donetsk/Luhansk viable. But in my opinion that will be that.
The Russians as it is have proven themselves incapable of capturing major cities. Its taken them weeks to capture Mariopol despite it being surrounded etc. It wont continue indefinitely.
Whether there is a formal peace treaty and sanctions lifted, or it just descends into a stalemate where they lob shells at each other along the line is the question. Probably the former but who knows.
Whether it ends in a peace treaty
What noone has mentioned is how coincidental it is for a major European war to follow so shortly after the worst pandemic in who knows how many years. For me there has got to be a correlation with this.
Why put out this story now which happened on 3rd March? It seems to me to all about rehabilitating RA, not only was he negotiating peace, but was almost poisoned by nasty Putin.
Putting aside, that 1 week ago the press was basically braying for RA's blood.
I sense we are being prepared for a peace settlement and a lifting of sanctions relatively soon.
Looks like the British press are subtlety starting to rehabilitate RA in readiness for business as usual. Wasn't he the devil incarnate last week..?
Apparently one Russian Oligarch is getting round the sanctions by doing some trust sleigh of hand and moving his dosh to the British oversees territory of the British Virgin Islands. All perfectly legit. Looks like Londongrad's getting back to business as usual. Perhaps not too long to wait now.
With Peace it is highly likely Evr shares will eventually start again. The world will move on to the next cause celebre. Roman Abramovic wont be the devil incarnate). As soon as the coast is clear formally outraged Western Companies will pour back into Russia tripping over each other in search of good profits.
Holders at the EVR slump will likely get some last scare to try and make them relinquish their holding at 5p but if they keep their nerve. They are likely going to do very nicely in deed.
It will be just as it ever was.
Meaning share price of £2 ish ? will alot of costs and messing around. Fine for me. That's why I'd personally be looking to get shut of any Russian connection asap. Others who bought higher will want to stick around.
It's way out of our hands whatever happens anyway.
"No threat of Nationalisation". On this day sure. In future - simply cannot say.
It's a war situation anything can happen and does. It's clearly not all "empty rhetoric". These guys on both sides are often deadly serious.
There is a British company and assets sitting in the middle of Putin Land.
If Vlad wanted he could raise a phone and tell the company that there is "new ownership" in 5 minutes.
If the war continues and we continue to economically attack Russia's economy. What is the likelihood of Vlad letting Evraz Russia simply sit there potentially exporting the profits out to Britain because of the rule of law?
If necessary he would find a justification.
In any event what is the likelihood of Vlad now simply directing Evraz Russia's output purely to Russia's bidding. Pretty high.
Because the west will not go into Ukraine - it has to be perpetually seen as doing something each day the war continues.
Sanction Abramovic today, ban steel imports tommorow , do this or that the next day or be seen weak.
I don't see a chance of this share being unsuspended with Abramovic having 30% while the war continues - it would be politically unacceptable to the UK government.
Theres a pretty high chance that the Russian part could be lost or severely reduced (Nationalisation) - I think people should wake up to the implications of that.
However Id say theres a really low chance of the US/Canada operation being lost - hence some effort should be made to put a value on that?
Could Evraz North America become a new company and what would its value be?
Another option is work out how to get rid of any Abramovic association re his shareholding.
Because the west cant really get to Putin - Abramovic is the next best things and as a Evraz shareholder- thats not a good position to be in.
If Russian nationalized Western Assets and West embargoed all Russian product including Wheat the shock to world trade would be such that writing off 37% of Evraz's value would probably be least thing to worry about.
The War is ending. Already they are evacuating civilians and ceasefires from towns. All sides want peace and quick, its just how to divide the Ukrainian cake that is being worked out in Belarus. - imho.
I suspect this share today may be a roller coaster as the share price is manipulated with ref to getting the divi.
The next dividends may be cut after this - there will clearly be some massive Russian fallout - but when it gets back to business as usual, and it always does. This could be a life changing share to own at this price.
Betted yesterday on very same yesterday recovery to around 25p. Sold sharpish today, didnt bank on Mini Covid winter starting at 9am and have memories of what happened to shares at last lockdown. If Yanks get spooked there could be a real route of stockmarket to say 6500 over next weeks IMO.
£20 million a year government subsidy (presumably a fair whack of which for Simec). The chance of Scottish Govt. allowing Simec to fail seems unlikely. I''d say it had friends in high places.
PMQs Johnson just said £20 million support for Scottish tidal energy. Got to be a good sign.