Member Info for NeilBWallace

"No threat of Nationalisation". On this day sure. In future - simply cannot say.
It's a war situation anything can happen and does. It's clearly not all "empty rhetoric". These guys on both sides are often deadly serious.

There is a British company and assets sitting in the middle of Putin Land.

If Vlad wanted he could raise a phone and tell the company that there is "new ownership" in 5 minutes.

If the war continues and we continue to economically attack Russia's economy. What is the likelihood of Vlad letting Evraz Russia simply sit there potentially exporting the profits out to Britain because of the rule of law?

If necessary he would find a justification.

In any event what is the likelihood of Vlad now simply directing Evraz Russia's output purely to Russia's bidding. Pretty high.

Because the west will not go into Ukraine - it has to be perpetually seen as doing something each day the war continues.
Sanction Abramovic today, ban steel imports tommorow , do this or that the next day or be seen weak.
I don't see a chance of this share being unsuspended with Abramovic having 30% while the war continues - it would be politically unacceptable to the UK government.
Theres a pretty high chance that the Russian part could be lost or severely reduced (Nationalisation) - I think people should wake up to the implications of that.
However Id say theres a really low chance of the US/Canada operation being lost - hence some effort should be made to put a value on that?
Could Evraz North America become a new company and what would its value be?
Another option is work out how to get rid of any Abramovic association re his shareholding.
Because the west cant really get to Putin - Abramovic is the next best things and as a Evraz shareholder- thats not a good position to be in.

If Russian nationalized Western Assets and West embargoed all Russian product including Wheat the shock to world trade would be such that writing off 37% of Evraz's value would probably be least thing to worry about.

The War is ending. Already they are evacuating civilians and ceasefires from towns. All sides want peace and quick, its just how to divide the Ukrainian cake that is being worked out in Belarus. - imho.
I suspect this share today may be a roller coaster as the share price is manipulated with ref to getting the divi.
The next dividends may be cut after this - there will clearly be some massive Russian fallout - but when it gets back to business as usual, and it always does. This could be a life changing share to own at this price.

Betted yesterday on very same yesterday recovery to around 25p. Sold sharpish today, didnt bank on Mini Covid winter starting at 9am and have memories of what happened to shares at last lockdown. If Yanks get spooked there could be a real route of stockmarket to say 6500 over next weeks IMO.

£20 million a year government subsidy (presumably a fair whack of which for Simec). The chance of Scottish Govt. allowing Simec to fail seems unlikely. I''d say it had friends in high places.

PMQs Johnson just said £20 million support for Scottish tidal energy. Got to be a good sign.

Bought some on basis of reading Joseph Conrad's Nostromo. South American silver mine intrigue is never about what it claims to be.

For me, its uncertainty about how bad COVID winter will be. If bad - oil will get hammered (which will be an opportunity/ bad news) for interested parties.

Interesting to see what happens when us market opens. Friday they bounced it further down. Logically, Monday they will bounce it further up?
Is that how it works.

I had an average of around £15 and sold at £18. I didn' buy the £20 mantra. Shell isn't convincing people its Green its going to be the bete noir whether right or wrong for a long time to come particularly with COP.
A minor COVID winter is a coming this is likley going to keep falling to around £15 which would seem in line with the gradual recovery trend. The huge £18 leap was artificial due a gas/oil squeeze and the crowd jumping in.

Under £15 would be a bargain - but its going to be the equivalent of the antichrist (tobacco etc. ) for a good time to come and will need a certain amount of nerve to hold.

Looking at what they do. Income seems to depend on government subsidies. Hence suspect Government manouevering for best deal is behind it. Being largely experimental it seems part of the game that they would take on massive debt.

Best view is look at their videos, they seem on the level with proven useful tech. If the government allows them to fail- then what -restart all the work again?

For me its a risky punt for the very long term where you either lose everything or make a small fortune. Not for faint hearted, but calculated risks seem one way to make a lot of money.

I'm getting what you are saying, and hope you are right.
But what is implied is that the COVID damage to the economy (and Oil) will be healed by end of year? And that Oil stocks will actually be at the top of the cycle then.
I think people are steaming ahead too quickly and that may lift it to 20 sure, but intrinsic value 20 - not so sure. I'd sell quick if it got that far. Hope Im wrong.

As a holder would like to see it run through to 20. Not sure that is possible just yet.
Reasons divi is now 3% before at 20 was c. 6%
Rise seem to coming from a short term artificial squeeze on Gas/Oil rather than any intrinsic merit of the Company.
Shell is still likely wounded from COVID

I think it the rise is irrational exuberance , and long term 20 is quite far away really.

I'm finally in decent profit after 1.5 years. I bought half at 20 odd, half at the oil crash.
Looking at a previous post for my rationale I was half right, half wrong.
The dividend was then around 10%. I listened to the mantra - Shell has never cut the dividend since WW2 - They did.. by 66%
The other half saved me - I felt the oil price would recover - it did - but took a lot longer than I anticipated to get me back to break even.
It was often a pretty bleak ride, now the green is mightily satisfying.

Now I need to sit back and try figure out where the price will head now. Very difficult to do.
Assumption: Shell will successfully migrate to be a leader in Green energy.
My hunch is it will eventually touch 22 odd. Then cyclically fall.
Hence to be on the safe side get out out 20 with a very tidy profit. That's the plan Stan.

I bought these on around 23rd March taking advantage of the irrationality of the crowd with a 15% dividend. I think that is probably the only way to make serious money. This share in my opinion will slowly rise. The Virus is already ending in China, S Korea and in my opinion will start to come to an end in around 1 month. The FTSE is around 5,600 which seems to me a historically reasonable level - it crashed in my opinion from a very high level. It is fine for things to slowly grow again over the next few years as part of the trade cycle. I do not believe there will be a dividend cut as Shell has the resources to wait a few months. If I were Shell I would in fact be buying distressed minor players. The current Oil price is barely at break even. Hence either Western Civilisation comes to an end because oil producers can no longer afford to pump oil ..or as more likely the oil price will slowly rise. For a long term buy seemed an unmissable oportunity. Hope Im right.