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So if they offer us their shares at their highest and they buy us at near our lowest then win win for them. I would have liked the last placement price at more than 34p but we are where we are. I have been shafted before when someone took the company over on the cheap. But I think we have so much promise to stay independent. Tomorrow will be interesting.
I find the trading pattern really interesting. This is almost identical to just before the possible offer, with it sitting on a range, lots of visible sells, and a big buyer somewhere behind. Occasionally a PI does a buy that goes through. Looks a bit manipulated. How can so much get sold and yet the price stays the same, or even goes up slightly! Someone trying to encourage sellers perhaps? Anyway, am looking forward to the update tomorrow morning, as is everyone else here! Good luck.
The higher Clinigens share price can rise.. the greater the value of the 'Paper' offer for QP's share... e.g. If 1 Clinigen share at £10 for 10 QP shares each QP share would be valued at £1.00...If Clinigen shares rise to £12.00 the potential value of each QP share rises to £1.20 .. and no additional shares (to compensate for the higher price need to be issues) .. Good for Clinigen and if you are a believer in Clinigen Paper then good for QP shareholders.(as the value of the offer for each QP share rises as Clinigen share price rises..
no idea, never been through a potential takeover before. probably just sentiment?
Their share price is currently up 2.28%. Don't know if this is good, bad or doesn't matter.
I have just gone through again all the past twelve months official communications. Very clear to me that the boards strategy is slowly but surely starting to deliver results. Chris Rigg can hardly contain himself with the excitement he must be feeling. All his individual strategies seem to be delivering. Got to be a good day tomorrow.
For the update on Tuesday
Just look at the large trades in the last few days. All buys. As they say, follow the money. The big money frequently has information we don't. Regardless, very much looking forward to the Tuesday update. Reckon we should be on a minimum 25 PE for an aggressive takeover. The update will set the target price. This could even be on the low side because its only the first half year since the restructuring. The next 6 months will be even better.
Having a few ciders and wines tonight guys. Think our song should be Billy idol, rebbell yell, In the midnight hour we want more more .......... Lol
A very interesting trade announced after the market closed..at 17.15pm today a 500k buy at 75p...The QP board and its brokers / backers are possibly playing the game as well if not better than Clinigen...trying to maximise shareholder value from any bidder. All conjecture of course..
Exactly what I thought Samjsung. I wonder if we might get a snippet about the takeover deal in Tuesday's update??
It is likely to be financial backers / brokers of Clinigen doing their job for their client..in trying to supress the price and make any offer appear more attractive...a known ploy !
No one in there rite mind would sell so who is? Who wants to suppress the share price??
Good work in my book.
I had an average of £1.25 now got it down to 90.5p. Hopefully sp will rise above £1.00, I don't think an offer for less would be acceptable.
Maybe not, but we will get the profit for the first 6 months. I reckon that this has been brought forward to set an expectation of price and as a defensive position from this BoD. They will want the highest possible price and I reckon would have a preference not to sell. Once the results are out for the full year this will soar by itself.
I don't think you can get access to the management expectations. I may be wrong though.
Thanks for replies robins and rylidan. Do we know where we can get management expectations from? I would just like to see what their estimates are. Very excited about update on Tuesday. I expect they will be strong and slow Clinigen that they need a solid offer if they want a part of this!
Just imagine what it would cost to try and accumulate over 50% of the shares. It would drive the price sky high. I had no intention of selling any until at least £1.50, and if the business was still growing nicely I wouldn't sell at that point. Most shareholders here will need an incentive to sell. Believe me.
Look at the final results from May. We had an EBITDA of £10.1m last year, with huge restructuring costs. We have cut out loss making business, and increased the revenue on non-loss making business. Margins are reported to have increased. I would expect EBITDA to be in excess of last year. Conservative estimate is £10m. We wont pay much tax either this year - if any, and debt is under half of last year. This company is now in great shape and doesn't need a predator. I'm guessing the BoD feel like that too. Chris Rigg wont want to sell when he's just setting the business up nicely. Hence IMO the offer will need to be decent. Clinigen need us far more than e need a takeover.
I think that's the point Wizard. We are not desperately looking to be taken over. The Boards strategy is certainly working and things are looking good. Any low offer under £1.00 should be turned down. Hope I am not being greedy.
Thanks notrac. Latest statement referring EBITDA From recent RNS Trading during the period has continued to be strong and as a result Group Adjusted EBITDA for the half year ended 31 July 2017 is expected to be in line with management expectations as updated on 26 June 2017; -- The strategic plan to focus and simplify the Group is driving tangible benefits and the first phase is now complete. As anticipated this has led to a significant improvement in financial performance and an overall higher margin business; -- Decisive actions have transformed Niche Pharmaceuticals into a highly profitable division which is now contributing significantly to Group Adjusted EBITDA through successful product portfolio performance with a healthy and focussed development pipeline; My take is that if profit looks to be circa 10m on track for the full year. PE ratio of 17 will get us to 100p. Somebody below suggested no more than 80p. But I think this board will know that if they keep doing what they are doing 80p is quite low. For me this interest is flattering in QP but only at the right price. I would be happy and I would expect this board to look well north of 100p (I am actually hopeful for more). Easy to get carried away with the excitement of an offer. But I would be happy if the board turned it down if it's not quite right.
In 2015 Clinigen bought out an Australian company on 25 times EBITDA. Half was paid in a combination of cash and shares and half was deferred on attainment of milestones in first two years post acquisition.
"One further observation Clinigen itself is an attractive purchase or merger with an international pharma company. It's independence after acquiring QP may be short lived." that's an interesting consideration, i know little of them, other than looking at their current share price and the chart, to me it looks like they are nearing a peak, being at their yearly high right now, and have been on a steady rise recently, as you said, influx of new shares, and them being sold early (As i probably would, given the low divi yield on a high priced share) might indeed cause a drop. Although brokers forecasts are optimistic for another couple of pounds yet
Thanks for the info SamJSung. What sort of disappoints me is that Scaife once told me of the potential of the pipeline products and what he believed they had generally such as biodose connect. Now Chris Rigg comes along and thinks the pipeline has greater promise. The adventure I thought I was going on may be curtailed by an offer. I suppose this is business but if there is no offer then I will not be disappointed.