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Very Interesting that today Sigma Broking submitted a Form 8.3 detailing a short of QP shares totaling 3330418 1.96% of equity... Now why have they taken this position ? Betting on a No Bid ? or is this a clever ploy by Clinigen in helping to keep the QP share Price around the 70p mark?
Thankfully we have Schroders as an II. I am sure they will make sure that QP. obtain a fair price. If there is a paper offer, difficult for PIs because QP sp will remain at a discount to the offer.
If they did offer 1clinigen share for every 10 quantum plus 50p cash that would represent an offer of £1.08 per share. It would only dulute the clinigen shares by less than 15% while almost doubling profit and increasing revenue by over 30%. Thats for a business that fits like a glove for clinigen and before any synergy related savings. IMO that offer would not be enough.
I think there is a reasonable PI buying but IIs are waiting for the offer and making cash by trading. Also i reckon IIs knew about the possible offer and loaded up early so are simply making a no risk profit while waiting to see if the bulk of their shares provide a windfall. Keeping the price low also benefits clinigen holders. New investors will find it hard to see past the artificial trading figures. You can tell its artificial by the daily RNS returns
robins.. Interesting question... the answer I belive lies in the continuous filing of Forms 8 / 8.3 / 8.5 forms...Most of these forms include trades of buys and sells .. some small and some not so small...I suspect that there is a strong desire by associates / supporters of Clinigen to keep the price as stable / low as practically possible.. Thus any bid figure offered by Clinigen can be tailored to address a current price of round about 70p... Thus Clinigen with itas continuous rising share price can offer a very attractive premium to QP holders without having to issue excess paper in its own shares...As per my previous comments.. If Clinigen were originally going to offer 1 Clinigen share (priced at £10.. for every 10 QP shares that would be £1 for every QP share... I do appreciate there is a cash element within the offer... With Clinigen having risen over the past days / weeks to £11.39p... Each QP share would now be worth nearly £1.14p a 14% increase ... If Clinigen shares continue to rise the offer to QP shareholders...would also rise robins .. you have previously mentioned that you thought Clinigens share price rise would allow them to offer less shares (to take into account their rising share price).. With institutional shareholders dominating the share register... this is a very unlikely scenario... They like us know the real value both now and moving forward of QP and it wont be allowed to go cheap..
rylidan this is why I don't know why there is not more buying pressure. What trick am I missing?
With low volumes this is very easy to keep around this price. However, realistically we are easily worth this price now after the great half year update. Perhaps the market expects the deal to fall through? It would be impossible to take over quantum at less than £1 a share and even that may not succeed.
That's a first, never seen a 8.3 rns followed by 3 Corrections,Maybe they should use a pencil first. I Thought I missed something important then.
Intend to make an offer or make an offer. I think that by Sept 13th will either make an offer or go away.
offer* not over !
i have to admit, i've held this one for a little while now, having been watching for a while and bought in at a nice level..... and am hoping for an over closer to £1
thanks for the confirmation........ my understnding of it, is that whilst the date is a deadline, it is purely a deadline to confirm an offer WILL be made, so basically initial discussions should take place before then and if an offer would be considered then they hve to confirm intention........ but at that deadline they dont have to actually make an offer so realistically, as has been speculated, it will highly unlikely they wont make some offer, so i dont expect much rise until an actual firm offer is in an rns
I am a bit surprised that more people on here haven't taken a punt to buy at say 70p in the hope that we eventually get an offer over 80p in order to make a smallish profit.
thanks for the confirmation........ my understnding of it, is that whilst the date is a deadline, it is purely a deadline to confirm an offer WILL be made, so basically initial discussions should take place before then and if an offer would be considered then they hve to confirm intention........ but at that deadline they dont have to actually make an offer so realistically, as has been speculated, it will highly unlikely they wont make some offer, so i dont expect much rise until an actual firm offer is in an rns
Hi ISG, welcome to the party! Yes I've followed QP for a while now and I'm glad they've turned things around. agree with your comments regarding Clin and a takeover seems v.likely IMO, if not their share price will take quite a tanking which might be a buying opportunity for me there too!
Hi b, thank you I looked at this over the weekend after you mentioned it on pfg bb, it does look like a little gem, very interesting took a punt this morning. Interesting that clinigen mcap has risen a lot more then here since takeover announcement almost like a takeover of qp is priced in to their sp now and a placing at clinigen could easily pay for this. Even without a takeover it looks like it would have a good future alone. GLA.
Boxer sorry I missed your comment. You're right I did I put some money into PFG to take advantage of the drop there but back in again now. Thought it was a risk worth taking for a few more shares :-)
Have re-checked it is the 13th Sept 2017.. Rule 2.6(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the “Code”), requires that Clinigen, by no later than 5.00 p.m. on 13 September 2017, being the 28th day following the date of this announcement, either announces a firm intention to make an offer for Quantum Pharma in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announces that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel, in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
"leading up to the 22nd Sept when I believe a firm bid / withdraw decision has to be made..." i'd made a note of the 13th for that, what trigger date/event did you use to calculate the 22nd ?
If they were to back off now or try and fail to get us on the cheap it would not reflect well on them or their advisors. Surely the due diligence taken at this early stage and the well received results suggest this must go ahead, to insult us with anything less than todays 70p plus an healthy premium would be futile as so many are in here at above that level.
SamJsung, you wrote "That outcome may come at a price (signifcantly higher than we may expect)" Let's hope so because I'm still expecting £1.20 to £1.50 !! Clingen will not want to lose this acquisition,. This would be a significant purchase and likely to add over £10m to their profit line next year - in fact this will mean their profit would almost double! Note that Clinigen's revenue is only around double that of ours, so it would also add 30% to their revenue numbers. They want Quantum badly IMO, sorry NEED Quantum. At this price we're a bit of a sitting duck, but that cold easily change very quickly.
Thought you sold out only yesterday. This somehow managed to hit £1.70 following a successful IPO. when launched at a £1 but god only knows how what with no credible management or strategy in place. Now with a competent CEO. and strengthened board in place plus! a obvious profit bearing strategy a predator comes a calling surprise, surprise. With a premium I'm expecting £1.10p or what has the last 12 months been about.No one gifts hard work and goodwill to a competitor,
My 11k buy from this morning is showing as a sell!
Corrected text from my reply below : Clinigen have a business model and management that the market appears to more than impressed with.. The rise in Clinigens shares is a reflection of both that and a support for the QP Group bid... In my view the rise in Clinigens share price is most likle to support a higher offer (remember it is shares plus cash )... The combined group with relevant cost savings, a signifcant pipeline from both organisations.. can only make the market and Clinigen management desire a successful outcome... That outcome may come at a price (signifcantly higher than we may expect) ... With regard to Clinigen shares... Broker forecasts are positive and for every seller there are willing buyers who will snap them up...What downward pressure from QP holders selling may be very short lived and Clinigens shares may well continue to rise... Some pundits forecasting £15 upwards... You either believe or not... the choice is yours.
Clinigen have a business model and management that the market appears to more than impressed with.. The rise in Clinigens shares is a reflection of both that and a support for the QP Group bid... In my view the rise in QP's share price is most likle to support a higher offer (remember it is shares plus cash )... The combined group with relevant cost savings, a signifcant pipeline from both organisations.. can only make the market and Clinigen management desire a successful outcome... That outcome may come at a price (signifcantly higher than we may expect) ... With regard to Clinigen shares... Broker forecasts are positive and for every seller there are willing buyers who will snap them up...What downward pressure from QP holders selling may be very short lived and QP shares will continue to rise... Some pundits forecasting £15 upwards... You either believe or not... the choice is yours.