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What I find odd in this potential takeover scenario... Is the fact that Clinigen appear to me to be starting from a near minimal holding in its target QP... I could understand a full bid being made if they held 29.9% of their target (QP) and then launched a bid for the remaining equity... Without this platform for a full bid... the only sense I make of this is that the offer price for QP would have to be at a price that would (in my opinion be a knockout Price) ensuring that there are no substantial shareholders or groups of shareholders that would stop a full exceptance by 90% of the equity... They can compulsary acquire the remaning 10% if this figure is achieved... Will it be a knockout price with full support of the board and major shareholders or a damp quid bid leading to rejection? What I also find interesting are the costs expended by Clinigen in this possible takeover proposal.. What does worry me is the opening of the books to Clinigen... and their (now) awareness of our pipeline, cost structure and growth potential.. We will know on the 13 th the outcome !
I would have voted against an offer of less than £1.00. When you look at how well Clinigen have done they seem to be a first class outfit. However our board seem to know what they are doing but I hope we don't get crowded out by the competition.
Likely
I'd be very happy in a no offer. Want to see the full year results this year and next. IMO we wont be anything like true value until then. The market needs proof the restructuring has worked. Would most limsly vote against any offer anyway.
As Beevorma mentioned the thought of no offer, i wondered what the outcome of this might be, and possible reasons why..... he speculated, this could be a reason behind today's 5% drop, if news of a withdrawal of interest was leaked.... but would we really drop 5% (or more) because of that, would the market consider their U-turn as a bad thing for us, in that perhaps we weren't as good a prospect as expected? or, could it be the other way around that their interest was turned away, or they are not in a strong enough position to offer market value for us ? what's everyone's thoughts should there be a reversal of interest
yup, i hope i'm wrong too.... other thing is, i'm not sure i want some shares in them, valued at the top end of their historical SP on the coat tails of a big dilution, i'd rather not feel locked in over there when the SP falls
yeah, the thought of no offer is also crossing back and forth across my mind too, but with all the holdings RNSs coming, i'm included to think there will be
CBB hope you are wrong too. I notice Clinigen has paid so far £50m for Link Healthcare with maybe more to come. This was satisfied roughly in £22m cash , £19m shares and £8m deferred. I roughly worked out we might be worth 90p per share but I suppose it depends how much they really want us or put another way how much we can do for them. Clingen have really progressed since they were floated.
i have the sense that there isn't actually going to be an offer after all, which probably explain the drop today. 5% is a lot when you have volume like ours...
yeah, i have to admit, i'm somewhat perplexed by how stagnant this is given what is possible in the next few days.... is it because the market expects the offer to be low ball, sand accepted ? i have this sense we are about to get screwed over, but i hope i'm wrong
and counting!
I've been getting quotes all week to sell at 68-68.8p would think any that are higher then 69p are buys.
hmmmmm who might that be
Practically every trade is shown as a sell. If has all week. Why? The spread deliberately set higher to give this impression? Or is there really a large hidden buyer?
Just went through the 8.3 forms re Clinigen group issued since 16th August. 4 discloser companies increased their stake in Clinigen, 8 reduced their stake and 9 remained about the same. Not sure if anything can be deduced from these movements.
It's no secret the ex CEO and the present CEO are good friends. Scaife originally employed Riggs. He knows the offer price.
If he knew the price he would not be able to trade based on the fact he knew. I doubt he knows. I am sure he has a very good idea however. Even if there is no offer these shares might slip back to pre offer but they are likely to be a lot higher than £1 in a couple of years providing the company continues on its current trajectory.
QP. has strong institutional support: Legal & General 15.06% Schroders 8.65% Fidelity 9.7% Janus Henderson 3.90% Slater 2.18% Aviva 4.5% In the Clinigen camp, Legal & General hold 0.159%, Janus Henderson 4.17% and Schroders 1.84%. There is a much wider distribution of shareholdings in Clinigen.
I consider Scaife keeping hold of his shares a good sign. Must of still fancied Qp. prospects once he left. I just wonder the significance of today's timing of 8.3 disclose. why leave it so late? Bet he knows the Clin offer price. Was he thinking of selling some before the offer or even direct to clin? Has he filed now being confident the most profitable thing is wait for clin offer??
A slightly late declaration. Returned from holidays? If I get a chance I will go through all these 8.3 forms to work out who the holders are.
A slightly late declaration. Returned from holidays? If I get a chance I will go through all these 8.3 forms to work out who the holders are.
In March 2016 Scaife held 3,342,303 shares so he has sold a few for pocket money but basically has kept the faith. I just hope Rigg keeps the faith and doesn't sell us on the cheap.
All positions over 1 % have to be declared during the bidding process / timescales... hence Andrews declaration.. The figures quoted on Form 8.3 is his beneficial holding.. which he appears to have kept even after leaving QP.
Hi SamJ. I have just seen this RNS too. Could you please help me interpret? What does it actually tell us Andrew Scaife has actually done? Does it serve as a statement of his position? Surely not as he is under 3% and does not need to declare.
The latest Form 8.3 submitted today shows Andrew Scaife Ex CEO of Quantum as the owner of 3,155,216 shares 1.865 % of QP Capital....He did NOT dump his shares when he resigned and is likley to be a big beneficiary if the bid by Clinigen succeeds..