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Looking at the 2016 report for clinigen EBITDA was 16m so IMO adding another £10m + is significant. True clinigen may get close to £20m this year. Anyway we will see very soon.
Thank you for your response Rylidan. Clinigen have not produced their results yet but they indicated in the earnings update that profits were up 20% on last year. That would give an adjusted EBITDA of £70 million and adjusted earnings per share of 42.0p. QP. have issued half yearly results suggesting a likely EBIDTA of £12 million for the full year, which would presumably be around 7.0 per share. Therefore I do not understand how this will double Clinigen's profit. Agree that they can use their highly rated stock (currently in the high 20s based on the forthcoming results) to fund the purchase but I would be very surprised to see them paying much above 18 times earnings (126p). We live in hope.
notrac, I beg to differ. This will almost double clinigens profit, and the remaining quantum business is lean and mean. Unlike clinigen. The fact that they can leverage a very high PE to buy quantum is significant. This will undoubtedly be a bargain for them even at £1.50 plus. I'd be very happy to reject an offer close to £1 as I'm sure the BoD will. It will be interesting to see what guidance the BoD give when the offer comes in.
12.5% chance it will be Monday!!
Clinigen's market cap is about nine times that of QP. I cannot see this as being other than a bolt on acquisition for Clinigen as opposed to " a huge deal". Consideration between 100p and 120p per share imo.
To go then (up to)
Ooh a generous offer sounds great. Lets all hope you are right. Presumably over £1.00 then.
Just an Observation...There appears to be huge effort to keep Clinigen shares around the £11.00 mark.. and QP shares around the 70p mark... The number of Forms 8.3, 8.5 etc being posted daily detailing existing and new owners / position takers is fascinating... plus the individual dealings both buys and sells being recorded on the said Forms.. Rylidan is I believe spot on when he says Clinigen cannot afford to lose this deal..Clinigen share price is supporting waht i hope to be a generous offer when it comes .. Not 'If' it comes..Together these two companies would have a unique pipeline, global reach and a near monopoly in the market place .. Combined it may be seen as The Share of the decade..(Hopefully)
Dunno but wish they'd bloody hurry up lol
They can have my shares for £5.00 per share. What price do you think we may get offered?
What i meant to say was that all the big clinigen director sales were before this potential offer. I would hazzard a guess that the clinigen price started to rise before official news was out because it had been leaked. Clinigen is on a very high PE and we are very low due to issues last year and restructuring. The businesses are similar. For clinigen to buy us at the same PE as their own business would cost over £5 a share. This is a huge deal for clinigen and they wont want to lose it.
All those were before the quantum potentisl offer. This is huge for clinigen
I am sure either way he will get a few bob. I suppose he will want a high offer price but not too high to make the deal fall through.
If I remember correctly ALL the Directors option amounts are included in the total share capital of QP.. in other words Chris Rigg's options would be eligible to be converted once the takeover activity has been finalised and agreed...As per his option contract 'On Change of Control' .. His options would be accounted for in the final price / value placed upon QP... With regard to how much Chris R will receive... He may be subject to a combination of National Insurance, Income Tax, and or Capital Gains Tax . (I am No expert in this) . He will only be selling / offering his shares to Clinigen as again as previously stated they become valid after a Change of Control .. Ony a view !
SamJSung how will Chris Riggs options work if there is a change of control? If we are taken out at say £1.00, will he be able straight away to buy say 6 million shares at 30p and sell them for £1.00. Do you know how it will work?
What is very interesting is that the recorded transactions by Directors of Clinigen are all Sells No Buys ... And even since those sells the shares have shot up significantly ...Are Clinigen shares over valued? or Directors simply bad at their timings of share sales..... Thoughts ? Directors' Share Dealings Transaction Holdings Director/ Date/ Type Amount Price (GBX) Value (£) Amount Mr. John Bacon 28/06/2017 | Sale 200,000 842.50 1,685,000.00 530,767 Mr. Peter George 22/06/2017 | Sale 500,000 875.00 4,375,000.00 2,814,242 Mr. John Bacon 11/11/2016 | Sale 200,000 717.00 1,434,000.00 730,767 Mr. Peter George 18/10/2016 | Sale 2,200,000 750.00 16,500,000.00 3,357,242 Shaun Chilton 18/10/2016 | Sale Option Shares 97,246 750.00 729,345.00 412,943
tense two weeks to come, so much speculation and possible scenarios, i'm at a nice average, so for me it's all gravy, but i find myself torn as to whether i want paper in Clinigen or not, given the high price they are at at the moment, is it likely to slide back after the deal goes through, and we finally end up with our shares, or could it potentially keep going from strength to strength? Last time i ad a share in a take over situation, the SP was not held down like this, and i took the option to sell before the deal, difference was negligible at the end of the day, with only a few pounds difference had i held till the end. Either way, scope for so much speculation is excruciating lol
Riggs can exercise his shares at 30p per share on a change of control. I imagine today's buyer of 2.25 million shares has spoken to his accountant and is trying to reduce his family's CGT bill. Only the difference between the cash consideration and the purchase price of 30p will be subject to CGT in 2017/18 This suggests that there will be cash consideration in excess of 30p per share in my opinion.
So the most useful thing i found today was in the 9.22am RNS. Options at a strike of £1.40 anybody??? for reference these are for the product development director. Exercise Period: On the mid-market closing share price being greater than £1.40 for an average of 90 days or on a change of control. The options shall lapse if the target has not been achieved on or before 31 December 2021 and the exercise period runs from the vesting date until 9 November 2026 ..................so this got me thinking a little more. here is the annual report http://ir.quantumpharmaceuticalgroup.com/archive/reports/ar2017.pdf on page 43 Chriss Rigg also has 6,000,000 options at a strike of £1.40. yes 6million!!! .......all great news in my book.. . . . . .all those expecting £1.00 . . . .i think its time to expect a little more . . .
Agree wth sage and SamJ on the other thread. this is a flat position and would be taken by a client of Sigma, not Sigma themselves. thay are common place and called "pay to hold swaps". Its where a client will take the equivalent position long and short in the same stock. the broker will charge a fee to hold this for them. its usually undertaken when the underlying client expects a price fall. as they can liquidate the long half of the trade when the timing is right. the theory behind it is that the client can achieve a short position in a share where liquidity is normally not big enough for them to get a sizeable short on. Anywho if this takes a tick up then i expect this will get unwound.
Effectively sold at todays price but in a way that wouldn't tank the share price? Or are they are trying to encourage selling to lower the price to buy more? Strange one.
Not sure - Sigma will be acting on behalf of a client as I don't believe they take trading risk - just brokerage. Either way it looks a little odd. I would have expected them to declare the type of derivative. Difficult to infer whether they have a perfectly hedged long position or whether they have in fact made an error or the form. Either way Pitchcroft have gone big with 6m plus shares representing not far short of 4% of the company - a significant proportion of which is via CFDs.
If you are correct,, perhaps its a two way bet on the outcome...If QP share price falls the short would be worth substantially more... If the bid succeeds the Long holding would be worth considerably more..
Thats the way i read it too. It could be they have just closed their short or are using this to give flexability in trading later.
Not used to reading these forms, but is that not a declaration of a long interest of 1.96% and a short interest of 1.96%?