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Does anyone know of other companies that might be a good fit and may be interested in making a rival offer for us?
They need a majority to push through any takeover. Getting hold of 100m shares will not come cheap. Imagine trying to buy those on the open market! Anyone know what percentage they will need to hold to force a takeover?
Some of the II are the same in both companies. They always seem to scratch each others backs either way, especially when it comes to swapping a slice of a smaller cake for a slice of a larger cake.
The IIs in the two companies are not the same.
Hi Chris, thanks for the reply. I didn't know all our II's also own CLIN. That changes things surely? So if ultimately they want this tie up they would not want CLIN to overpay for QP.? It's in the II interest to keep price down. I hadn't considered this angle before. . . .
Most of the institutions have averages in the 70 to 80p range and will expect a decent return IMO or will be prepared to reject and wait. Not long to find out.
Agreed when they would have been sizing QP up the share price was 55p, we had the leap up to 75p just before the announce so my thinking has always been 80p tbh. Even though my average is 69p I'd still reject it as I think long term this is worth holding.
What concerns me is that some of the big institutions got their shares for 34p. If they accept say 80p they haven't done too bad in their investment. I just hope there are enough of us to reject it as many will have bought at a higher price.
Hi Wizard, I feel the institutional investors do fancy the tie up with clin and would prefer their paper. Most own more clin than qp. shares so makes sense for them not to over pay as would dilute their clin holdings. I also feel the effort being made to keep qp. around 70p means an offer of up to 90p is most likely outcome. Only my opinion.
70% of this business is with institutional investors. The BoD has very little, unlike many companies. It is the II's that will decide, but the rest of us also have a shout and can make a difference
The BoD know the value of the business. I cannot imagine that they would recommend an offer of 90p. They deliberately brought forward the excellent results, to start a defensive posture. I reckon that Clinigen are an unwanted predator as far as the BoD are concerned. We will see soon.
Hi chris.., It's possible the first offer may come in that low but I would expect that to be rebuffed. I think the board are uber-confident their current approach is working and have option incentives in place to incentivise them too. I am Expecting more and will vote against and have a higher figure in mind. If the offer comes, I am super interested in the boards reaction. Maybe they want to tie up with CLIN? Their established global reach, synergies etc might be what the board want? Let's wait and see. We could (and probably will, and I would be an avid reader) speculate what price to accept but isn't the reality that with the board owning a good whack and a few big institutional investors we are at their mercy? . . .
Only 5 days left for clin to show their hand. 20% chance tomorrow is the day. My guess is an offer between 75p-90p and board will recommend it.
Do you think (in time) QP Could reach the market cap of clinigen, if QP got the links established internationally and if they followed through with their other plans? So many similarities when Reading the two annual reports, but is the demand there for the products?
Given the current performance of the business, and the likely year end numbers, I'm still looking for a target of between £1.50 and £2.00 by early 2019. With two years of growth and good numbers it should then get to true value. How the Clinigen offer pitches against that, I await with interest. As for what happens short term, that's for the traders to decide. In low volume trading AIM shares are volatile!
We all need to remember that Clinigen have not yet made an offer. There is currently no offer but there could be one.
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Thanks rylidan. I too am slightly perplexed by all this, it does seem like there's either some undercurrents that are strategically managing the shareprice for their gain, either that, or the institutes don't believe they can put together a strug enough bid either way, they've killed this shareprice dead, and the longer it goes on , the more obvious it seems that it's deliberate, remove this offer completely from the equation, as if it never happened, are you telling me we'd be flat as we are ?
The brokers are doing a lot of trading. The broker may have declared a sale, but someone else would have bought these (with no declaration required). From what I gather a broker will sell at the top of the range and buy at the bottom of the range, where us punters have to buy at the top and sell at the bottom of the spread.
Market seems non-plussed guys, which I find strange. Do the institutions think the bid will be this price or therabouts, or not materialise at all? Note: i hold here and agree that I would have thought that a bid of 100p plus would be forthcoming. Thoughts?
can someone explain that one in layman's terms pls, i was expecting to see it as a buy, not a sell
Thanks notrac. You are correct. I was looking at the non adjusted profit before tax of £15.9m. Interesting reading the clinigen report. Looks like a good match for quantum and this acquisition will definitely help with their strategic goals. As long as the offer is good enough id be happy to hold clinigen shares.
In the financial summary of the Clinigen RNS dated 28/09/2016 which provided the final results for the year ended 30/06/2016, adjusted EBITDA is shown as 56.0 million, and adjusted earnings per share 35.0p. 20% on to top of this, as indicated for the year ended June 2017, would be 67.0 million (rather than 70 million), and EPS 42.0p.
On the back of the comments below I have had a quick look at CLIN results. Looks more like Rylidans numbers are closer the mark. . . . . @ notrac where do you get the 70m from please? . . . . . . Also having read the July CLIN end of year trading update I see much to be excited about. I think it's SamJ (as always) correctly points out that these are a perfect marriage. CLIN already has a global network with Asia and Africa already growing very strongly. Also America mentioned in the update. So additional markets for QP's existing range as well as its forthcoming products. . . . . .what I have not done is follow this through into a calculation to see what price I would accept.
Personally I'm happy with 126, but I understand the guys/gals that got in here at the 150's would hope for a little more. Not long to go!