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Started: Market-Dealer, 17 Jun 2024 08:32
Last post: nicknaim, Today 10:32
I may not make much by selling right now but if I hold ive got a wacking great big divi heading toward my isa late summer
Didnt take long to get back to normal
@riskingit - Check for yourself the numbers don't lie
@lardomorp - The divergence in performance has a decades long history - I can't see that changing - can you?
AceOfClubs
Also it's the next 3 years that count
Fwiw trade prices shown on this bb together with some other platforms can be a little misleading. For example an agency cross may have occured. Or in the majority of cases the price achieved for a purchase or sale may have fallen in between the spread. Which unfortunatly can be recorded as a sale when in fact it may have been a purchase. Also this is sets traded so in terms of reporting the trade by a platform such as this can be misleading.
Another excellent day for UK Treasuries. The yield continues to fall as prices rise. Sooner or later Pheonix will adjust accordingly. A nice twenty five basis point cut will propel us inmo.
This is why the big companies are leaving the uk market to trade on the NYSE.
Every trade is a buy and a sell. Price depends on what level buyers and sellers are prepared to trade at. The buy/sell stats shown here are irrelevant and misleading.
Buys/sells have been consistently 2:1 on this company every day for about 2 weeks now, yet the price continues to slide.
Makes no sense.
Started: TrekMadone, 15 Jun 2024 07:14
Last post: Swatton, 15 Jun 2024 10:27
Thanks Trek
The detail is here,
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5723E_1-2023-6-30.pdf
It’s new money for general working purposes page 260.
The additional notes that weren’t filled were contingency a lower tier (CoCo).
Every so often insurers come to market to raise funds to cover their liabilities and operations which pay interest and are backed by assets.
So as they take on more books they need more cover. These run for 5 years.
Usual caveats
Trek
I don't fully understand what Phoenix have done here. Have they just issued new debt to pay off an existing debt that was due to expire? If so I guess the problem is that the interest rates is higher on the debt they have just issued? A simple explanation would be good if someone can provide one.
Trek .
I think this is whare the problem is in terms of attracting investors .. Inmo. Pheonix is a extremly well run company, but unfortunatly relies on debt to carry its business moduel. So in fairness to Jp morgan they have a point, but inmo once interest rates are lowered then things will change rapidly.
The problem we have is that the us is expanding rapidly due to technology so they do not need to lower interest rates,Unfortunatly we are a basket case of a country which inmo will only get worse after the election. onmo by the way and no ones elses.
This is the easiest explanation I can find. But not sure how being slightly short leaves PHNX. As its replacement I assume the outstanding $350m remains on older terms.
https://www.hymans.co.uk/insights/blogs/blog/restricted-tier-1-issuances-and-other-forms-of-contingent-capital-under-solvency-ii/
Usual caveats
Trek
Last post: DramChart, 14 Jun 2024 16:10
Yep. Topped up just below 480.
I cannot believe I got this under 480 just then ..wow...
I am loading up more at these prices... alongside other financials
It's bad enough the SP tumbling but worse still it will bring the serial nutter Porch out of his hole
Started: Divihunter112, 10 Jun 2024 12:38
Last post: oldbrian, 13 Jun 2024 10:29
...and back down again today!!
I too am hoping to top up around 480 - I've been waiting since mid-May when the SP breached 520.
Nice little recovery today.
Kerching
Delta appears to be almost suggesting it’s “terminal” - 🤭
Wow Delta such insight. Thanks for your wisdom.
Started: AbjectPerformer, 7 Jun 2024 05:50
Last post: Divihunter112, 10 Jun 2024 13:09
I agree with @upomega.
All the builders (Persimmon etc) have recently shot up whereas MNG and PHNX havent. For me this is a buying opportunity for both at these levels.
It may down to the forth coming general elction due to the lack of buyers. In terms of something nasty lurking. My thoughts fwiw is that this is a highly regulated company more so than others due to the nature of its business. So personally i would be surprised if there is something there,but obviously world events could have a bearing going forward. There is also a Labour government to contend with their constant frets of taxing anyone with wealth. So a new tax maybe coming. Hopefully this will become clearer during the next few weeks.
Thank you Trek for your insight. I'm about flat with SP but in for the dividends. My reluctance to add at this stage is the worry that there could be something nasty lurking in the woodshed that would cause a revision of the dividend and hence a serious fall in SP. Otherwise I don't understand why all and sundry aren't snapping up the shares below 500p.
Interesting point re US Treasuries Trek. It does appear that we are now more alligned with them rater than our own and Euro bond market. One thing that doesnt seem to be happening is that we are not being priced in for a rate cut which is wildly expected during the next six to twelve months. The market certainly hasnt taken a longer view. Which used to seem to happen in general terms in the past. I.E looking eighteen montha ahead.
It is tracking inversely to the US ten year treasuries. We can see that clearly today with the hotter US payroll costs and the rise in US jobs which sent Phnx down 7.6p into the close.
Likewise the ECB rate cut and full take up of the tender offer didn’t turn the dial on the SP.
Even though its debt is not tradeable in much of Europe or North America the sp plays to the fiddle of the US treasuries.
All said results were a beat during tougher market conditions than now. Phnx are generating excess cash and paying a generous well covered yield.
Whilst it does indeed lag AV and LGEN it has a slightly different book. But I would rather be buying these down here knowing that rate cuts should eventually come rather than loading up on a lower yield in a more fully valued stock.
A disciplined approach to buying PHNX below 500p could be a fantastic investment over the next few years.
I had a huge dividend recently and am still above water here and will add if it goes below my average!
Usual caveats
Trek
Started: AceofClubs, 7 Jun 2024 16:09
Last post: licker, 10 Jun 2024 11:34
Ace, surely then your argument actually shows the undervaluatiom.of pheinix vs others?
I topped up this morning, fingers crossed I got the timing right for once
10% pa = 114% TR over 8 years with zero capital appreciation required.
With PHX generating buckets of cash (beating forecasts I should add), near to its 11-year low and demographic trends all working in our favour, and with nothing other than a general feeling of 'there might be something we don't know about' (t'was it not ever thus?) holding this back, looks a pretty reasonable bet to me.
Horses for courses, each to their own. Dividend shares help me maintain a very comfortable lifestyle thank you very much..
Difficult to understand the positive enthusiasm for this share. Total return figures over the past 5 years: AVIVA 58%, LGEN 38%, PHNX 8%.
AVIVA has certainly moved forward since Briggs left to take over at Phoenix - which has certainly put the brakes on any measurable progress here.
Don't be dazzled by the dividend: it's Total Return on your investments that will make you rich or keep you poor.
AceOfClubs
Started: David1951c, 7 Jun 2024 09:00
Last post: Monty888, 7 Jun 2024 12:29
I think it’s a good price to top up. If we get a 25 basis points interest rate cut then it will kick up very nicely. I think to 520p to 550p. They say they be increasing the dividend in their results, probably say just 5%. But then at current price it’s almost 11% yield. That makes it a strong buy for me.
With 10%+ yield PHNX offers a great return and I am satisfied with that. It is hard to understand why the share price remains relatively low and why there is not more buying. The largest shareholders are Japanese and Aberdeen with few above 3%. Possibly this is down to lack of equity investment by institutions and pension funds (ironically) as you might expect them to interested. Their risk assessment and low risk appetite probably means constrained holdings and possibly concern at the sustainability of dividends.
The current dividend cost for 2023 was £520m and the question is whether this is sustainable. It should be through to 2026 based on increased operation cash generation with expenses savings of £250m targeted. More will be revealed when half year report is released in August.
Started: shbgetreal, 7 Jun 2024 10:36
Last post: shbgetreal, 7 Jun 2024 10:36
A lot of folk using terms such as 'bond proxy', referring to investment cycles and other gibberish, fail to note the free cash generation, diversifying business strategy and favourable demographic trends currently on offer for a very cheap price with PHX. The 10% divi is just a sweetener.
Try focusing on fundamentals rather than sales guff.
Started: Reddukeclothing, 30 May 2024 11:22
Last post: AbjectPerformer, 6 Jun 2024 21:19
My friend also topped up phnx at 495 but on Tuesday
Not huge amounts but thought worth reporting
Trots - ahem.......
Phoenix Group announces plans to invest in abrdn - Scottish Herald March 2022
Abrdn 9.3% yield vs Phnx 10.3% yield that more underpinned. So out of the choices it’s Phnx for me.
PHNX is not an ABDN shareholder. Standard Life Aberdeen (SLA) became a major sharholder in PHNX after PHNX acquired SLA's UK and European life insurance business in 2018 for c£3.3bn (SLA originally acquired c19.9% of PHNX but subsequent disposals by ABDN have reduced its interest). PHNX subsequently acquired the Standard Life brand name in May 2021 and SLA rebranded itself ABRDN.
Red - the only read across I'm aware of is both hold major quantities shares in each. As for business models they are very different.
I'm onboard too, for the boy's junior ISA.
Started: AbjectPerformer, 6 Jun 2024 01:37
Last post: deepjoy, 6 Jun 2024 11:00
This will do well from here. As a bond proxy people will pile in soon enough as the 10yr gilt yield is already down circa 30 basis point this week. Gap to close at 540p it's a case of hold and do nothing.
Could only get 497 despite my valuation showing it at 493. But I am happy.. at the moment.
Topped up today 250 shares at 495p
Started: AbjectPerformer, 2 Jun 2024 22:43
Last post: AllAtSea, 5 Jun 2024 20:16
Further research suggests to me that the current price offers an opportunity top up my mediocre holding in PHNX. Briggs was well thought of at Aviva but apparently not by Adrian Montague (who was until recently chairman of Thames Water).
I'm still hold my investments and may top up in the future
Spar.. todays RNS goes some way to covering those concerns doesn't it?
Barclays highlighted this as a risk, when they downgraded
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045403/phoenix-group-hit-by-double-downgrade-1045403.html
That is an impossible question to answer.
Respond with no, there are no hidden dangers...but what if there is - they are hidden afterall...
Respond with yes there are hidden dangers - in which case they are no longer hidden so can no longer answer with yes and paradox alert - the universe implodes
Why is there very little movement in PHNX?
Started: TrekMadone, 20 May 2024 09:18
Last post: BilboMultiBaggin, 29 May 2024 17:21
Careful what you wish for Tambo.
I very much doubt the pm would have called an election if he didn’t think there were already major cracks in the economy starting to appear
Historically, we've seen dips as low as that, deep in Summer. So whilst its a stretch, it may not sound ridiculous.
I hope that happens to $LGEN....I'm waiting to buyback below 230p. On the election can take it down that much with a whacky result.
Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BGXQNP29/
Have a buying limit @ 450p (if possible)...IMHO-DYOR
Share price still falling , yielding 10.7% today which may well turn out to be a positive once interest rates fall
You would soon know if there were.
HL are not out of the woods…haha ..regarding Woodford’s mess yet.
They have questions to answer esp Dampier
Had my from Hl - early for them....
Not sure what to make of the bid for HL though?
As and when mine arrives, will probably wait as this has a habit of falling below 490s, or reinvest in my others as and when they fall below averages
Got mine from AJ Bell and reinvested.
Div received from IG and reinvested in AGR on the 3% drop this morning
Started: RT003, 21 May 2024 09:11
Last post: Sean1986, 21 May 2024 16:33
I’m hoping this stays here for a couple of days, this is a trading stock, so with my Aviva dividend I’ll be back in on Thursday am, hopefully.
GLA
Dividend too good to ignore
Went through at 508.50 earlier
Started: DramChart, 13 May 2024 07:40
Last post: Sean1986, 20 May 2024 21:30
I have used HSD, AJBell, HL and now use I use II. AJ Bell were good, but not cheap, though they have now raised their game. II is cheap, has an informative site and is quick with replying to secure messages.
Interactive Investor would be my recommendation.
There’s a lot of expectation that cpi will drop significantly on 22/05, which is when the divi lands.
So we may not be able to reinvest cheaply ?
I agree Jim & that's why Mrs G & I moved our many millions from HL to AJBell & some to Vanguard.
It was all very straightforward & we are both happy with the outcome, good luck.
Robina - think that’s more a reflection on HL than on Phnx.
When I started with HL they had comment on all shares in 250, listed trades almost live and averaged out brokers quotes.
Now they do none of these and service getting worse - time to move SIPP and ISA shortly I think.
Started: PanamaPete, 14 May 2024 17:53
Last post: Svend, 16 May 2024 21:27
Trek,
Agree let's land & secure the div first, then reinvest and let it rip at higher prices soon.
I am expecting a buyback here. They have not allotted the 300m cost savings from the acquisition. I thought special divi but it may be a buy back now. US investors prefer buy backs.
I prefer a special divi but the market may like to see stock bought at this price. Ut hey we’ll find out soon enough!
Wish the SP would hold until the divi lands next week!
Usual caveats
Trek
A point of interest from today's AGM:
Resolution No. 23 - To authorise the Company to make market purchases of its own shares (Special Resolution). - Passed
Started: deepjoy, 9 May 2024 14:51
Last post: 1.ARMANI, 13 May 2024 02:51
AGM Tuesday 14th May
gla
Wasn’t a single trade, it was a cumulative deal which could have been in progress for weeks etc, it only gets announced when it is complete.
30m trade ? Some big boy moves afoot
Some people got fleeced yesterday afternoon and allowed a large buy order to be filled... onwards to 540 and close the gap...
Started: Gary59, 7 May 2024 17:33
Last post: seen_it_done_it, 7 May 2024 18:04
Good job Gary, but you can do a little bit of trading while waiting for the next dividend too. Of course it's a risk for selling if your timing is wrong though. So, I am still learning my day trading skills. Just took profit again before closing and made only £216 this time. Will buy them back again tomorrow if the price is right....hahahaha..
Yes SIDI & Nervous a profit is a profit. I purchased 1,004 of these babies this morning at £5.13 & my folio is now showing at close of play today a healthy £42.01 profit after expenses. I won't be selling any time soon as I'm here for the + 10% dividend. God I love the stock market!! Good luck all.
Started: deepjoy, 7 May 2024 08:05
Last post: seen_it_done_it, 7 May 2024 16:14
Lol yes, I am trading mainly with my ISA account. My trading account so far for this year from April 6 already made over £2700 profit, nearing to the max CGT allowance. The rest are in my ISA account, up to now just made over £13k of profit. So, there will be no tax liability so far, but still 11 months to go yet for the current financial year. To avoid CGT, I may have stop trading with my trading account.😂😂😂
I'm with you SIDI. A profit is a profit. After fees/spread/taxes still over 3% assuming you have a reasonable number. I'd take that all day long. Just unfortunate for me I was not able to sell on Friday.
Then compound tax free for ever more in the ISA. Love it.
Well, I am a part-time day trader. Only make small profit every time. 😂😂😂
Well that wasn't that lucrative given the spread and tax etc ..
Bought my shares back at 506 after selling them at 524.4 last week. I knew it would fall back after a sudden spike. They usually/always do.
Last post: Slownsteady, 7 May 2024 07:59
Lol yes. Not the phrase I would have used.
But je suis ready. We have had a golden "once in multi-decade" opportunity to build up a Portfolio of UK Stocks and lock in superb Yields. Blue chips such as PHNX. BATS, LGEN, IMB, HSBA and others, that offer between 8-10% yields. Thank you very much, Mr. Market.
A ticking time bomb?
Sean1986 agree 100 %
I think a lot of Friday was to do with several factors.
The £250,000,000 debt reduction in on go was significant, not just because it saves interest but it also proves PHNX is generating the cash to do so, and pay the dividend. Algos take time to reflect these facts, hence the delay.
Other factors include the US starting to notice the bargains here. PHNX is a small fish to the US funds, and if it is eaten up it may be that the shares are bought by cash generating funds to supplement growth.
We are sat on a ticking time bomb, let’s hope we are ready.
Agree someone is happy to buy some £ 50M/10m worth of shares either they know something or they covering their shorts..
Started: bocasefarm, 3 May 2024 15:03
Last post: TrekMadone, 6 May 2024 18:58
GLG increased their short on 2nd May. Ouch!
Trek
Thanks Slikoil and bro-ken-broker for advice re reducing the adverts on here and I'll try your suggestions later. I don't get them on my laptop, which I'm currently on, because I've "Ghostery Tracker Ad Blocker" Chrome Extension blocking the adverts, but this and similar others don't work for smart phones !! And I'm not paying to block them !!
Looking forward to see what happens with PHNX tomorrow re why large price rise 3/5/24 and what if any action our Shorters take !!
Ads- click on the 'cookies' icon bottom left then click on preferences to remove any ads you dont want to appear👍
MTB Thanks for the informative post/view maybe it is another of the mighty 10 who have an appetite to bag a bargain...
This isn't really a traditional insurance company any more - it's a bulk annutiy company where large UK pension schemes move mostly pension (but some deferred) liabilities to them and pay a premium for doing so. The gilts crises actually accelerated this process as it actually increased funding for most UK schemes to the such an extent that many more can now afford to undertake these transactions. The growth and success here is being underplayed due to recent accounting changes which force annutity companies to recognise profits through the P&L over time rather than one lump which is why they now focus on operating cash generation rather than eps - and it will be generating op cash broadly equivalent to its market cap over the next 3 years!!. The market believes that the dividend is unsustainable, but I believe the opposite - that it will continue to grow from here. I suspect the stock is indeed a ripe target for someone, though not convinced it's WB as this is a different area of insurance than he is familiar with. Overall - very strong buy!!
Started: bocasefarm, 4 May 2024 12:01
Last post: Slikoil, 4 May 2024 14:34
There was a massive spike in volume that started suddenly at 2.38pm and continued until close.
That would make sense Blackfriars except the timing does not add up. The RNS was out at 11am but the shares did not move until 14.30