Member Info for Guitarsolo

Thank you!

I can see a link on LinkedIn to a Bloomberg article suggesting that SAV is seeking a secondary listing to widen its appeal to investors. I don't subscribe to Bloomberg so can't read it, but google is suggesting it is either Lisbon or Australia. I would have thought the latter since it is relatively easy to invest across European borders. Can anyone read the Bloomberg article?

"The funding timeline isn’t something “latched” onto in an interview, it is in black and white on the company’s investor relations presentation"

And if you think that means it is gospel for a pre-production / pre-financing miner then you are extremely naive. It's not a contract! I've invested in about a dozen miners at this stage or development and it will always be like this. It's a very complicated business, hence it takes over a decade to get into production (see Tornadotony's posts).

"As for Sasha I have found him to have been recently very much off his game with regards to Blencowe, whether that’s because the company isn’t supporting him or something else I’m not sure."

That 'something else' may be he is restricted from saying certain things.

I'm afraid others have nailed this, you're way to emotional to be invested in this sort of thing. It seems to be the only thing you comment about - I do hope you've not got 100% of your investments in one speculative stock. That would be naive (again). I would say a sensible limit is circa 2-4% although I expect many have broken their rules to go higher once they see what's on offer here (including me). But this should be a part of an investment strategy, not all of it.

GS

I have contemplated whether it is worth responding Computer, but I will give it a try.

(i) Timelines. When you are talking about pre-financing, pre-production, junior miners you should discard any timelines. There are too many variables, too many unknowns, too many things that can cause delays. If you latched onto anything said in interviews and think that is a promise or deadline, then this is not the place you should be investing. Stick to more developed companies who are more in control of their day to day destinies.

(ii) Confetti warrants. Right, let's put this to bed. If people taking up placing shares didn't receive warrants then they would have paid less for the new shares. You would have been diluted more than you were. The warrants serve to bring in needed funds along the way thus avoiding more placings. They are often at higher prices meaning that the incentive is there for existing shareholders to accumulate more shares as the company develops, and help out with cashflow along the way. Pretty much all companies in BRES' position would have to issue warrants. Personally, I don't think the warrant count is unacceptable - although some of the deadlines were unfairly short. But that's life. Not everyone with warrants sells them soon after exercising them. Brokers might want to derisk and have a free ride, but that's no different to someone top slicing. I suggest you just find a way of dealing with this issue.

(iii) The BOD/ MR haven't "talked a good game". I would say they have been very restrained in the face of evidence that they could be developing a Tier 1 asset here. That's serious stuff in the mining world and we won't be talking 12p a share. Please remember that at this stage they are very limited about what they can say. Read Sasha Sethi's (Investor Relations) comments on the Telegram chat. You can tell they are being required to be very tight-lipped.

Stay cool.

Guitarsolo

There are some other points that struck me.

At 4.24 Yuen talks about how small flake competes with Chinese synthetic and thus allows the Chinese to drop prices and put a miner out of business (or at least mothball them). That's why Orom Cross' mix of jumbo, large, medium and small flake sets it aside from the rest (e.g. Syrah).

Then, at around 4.48 he basically confirms that the US/the West couldn't impose anti-dumping tarriffs on China because China would otherwise just turn off the taps and then the US/West is screwed because it has nowhere near enough supply to do what it wants to do. The only answer is to secure their own supply, beneficiate outside of China and basically take China out of the equation. The US/West simply have to accept paying a premium or relinquish control over crucial industries like EV, energy storage, nuclear, hell even missile coatings! In other words, it's not an option.

This is where Orom Cross' lowest quartile costs kick in because it can produce the graphite without it being at 'too much' of a premium to China. This was one of my favourite bits of the report:

" In our view, the project exhibits many of the characteristics associated with Tier 1 graphite assets, including significant resource scale, strong exploration upside potential, favourable orebody characteristics and the potential for low-quartile operating costs and capital intensity. Importantly, these attributes are not theoretical: they are underpinned by a combination of simple geology, high metallurgical efficiency and strong regional infrastructure, which together support a relatively low-risk development pathway."

The patient will be rewarded here.

As usual, the Q3 dividend is the one that is increased and sets the tone for the next 12 months. Increased from 6.25p to 6.30p per quarter. OK, it's only 0.8% but at least it prevents dividend stagnation. I would say things generally look OK at HFEL and I'm happy to carry on holding.

I stand corrected Wanderer. But the sentiment remains the same! Here's hoping it heralds better time for NRR. They have a long road ahead of themselves to pull this back.

Well FactFinder, we will have to see. Whilst I am pleased to see a slight increase in the dividend, it is very slight. The last five years now give us the following DPS:

2022: 7.4p

2023: 6.7p

2024: 6.6p

2025: 6.5p

2026: 6.6p

So the dividend is still 10% lower than 5 years ago! Surely, that's not how it is supposed to be for a REIT! Fingers crossed things have turned.

Guitarsolo

With the DFS approaching, I would think investors are just waiting for it. Traders may be trading sentiment/ rumour/ whatever.

I recall a SAV presentation from early 2024 where they quoted a Cannacord Genuity study for the lithium market valuations where they quoted x0.3 for post-DFS, x0.5 for an early producer and x0.8 for an established producer. The link I had for that is broken and strangely SAV's investor relations page only shows one presentation from 2026 and not historic ones. Maybe it's just me.....

2024 seems like a very long time ago and much has changed since then. But anywhere near x0.3 of NPV would be interesting post-July.

I hope so Inbrackets, but "should be relatively straightforward without further dilution" isn't supported by SAV's history. I remember when there were fewer than 600m shares in issue. Now it's 2.57bn!

Ooops! No it's not, my apologies WelshMusk. Must be more vigilant where I click.

Have a nice day.

@WelshMusk Wrong board!

Drop the "E".

Markus, the company's stated intention is to increase dividends by 2.5% every year. Their financial modelling (including the inflation linkage) shows they can afford to do this for the next 25 years without any new asset investment, which they are likely to make anyway. Since BBGI went private, INPP is probably considered to be the top/ amongst the top funds in this field and history suggests they will be able to meet their progressive dividend promises.

Guitarsolo

Computer, you are being selective with your figures and choosing a momentary high to make the fall sound greater. BRES is actually more or less on its 100 moving average. We could equally say it is up 200% in 12 months as on this day last year you could buy for 2.69p!

I imagine most of us are here for the long term to see value be achieved. Let's just see how things play out.

Just looked and you can buy TR43s (4.75% coupon) for 91.27p so effectivley 5.20% yield on UK government debt. Factor in the 8.73p bonus on maturity in 17 years' time and the risk-free yield is at 5.70%. Surpised to see the high-yielders holding up given that.

Tichtich, I concur with your assessment of the inflation linkage.

Whilst I can't speak with much authority across INPP's 140 investments if we look at two of the larger ones, Thames Tideway and Sizewell C, my understanding is that they are not capped albeit they follow the lower CPI rather than RPI. I recall looking at the details of the Sizewell C investment and concluding that INPP had learned a few things from previous investments (that had caps) made during periods when inflation was a distant prospect. But I am happy to be corrected by anyone who is more across the finer details than I am.

In other news, the share buyback has reached 116m shares which is now over 6% of the shares in issue. Shares are held in treasury rather than cancelled.

I haven't had a chance to read it yet (thanks for the link though) and I am no expert on this sector, but I recall that Tesco's rise to dominance was a large degree because of this. They realised that having their capital tied up in owning their properties was restrictive. So sell and lease-back the asset, free up money for expansion and take it from there. It's a winner for the supermarket, but also a winner for the REIT that has a dependable income stream from a community asset that is not going anywhere. You just need to get the numbers right.

SUPR doing well I feel. It's a buy/add if the market gives you a chance below 80p. The move to a progressive (+2%) dividend is welcome as it attracts the infra-crowd who like that sort of thing (incl. me for certain segments of the family's investments).

Guitarsolo

With pre-tax earnings of just under 100p per share, and £20m net cash (= more acquistions coming) it's amazing that these are only on a P/E of 9. And rail is still going slower than expected (= it will need to speed up to use the 7 year budget).

Oh people noticed Trek! Just too busy to chat much. But the share price bounced up a couple of %, albeit after a ~6p drop.

On the subject of the buyback, they have spend "over £135m" to buy back 111m shares, average price ~121p.

111m shares represents nearly 5.7% of shares (off the top of my head). It's a reasonably large buyback for a £2bn+ fund.

£90m to go, which would be about 70m more shares at today's prices (which will by then be over 9% of the shares in issue, quite significant in my view).

GS

" underpinned by £16.3 million in operating profit"

Not bad for an £80m purchase in 2018. It's probably paid for itself already.