Member Info for Guitarsolo

I saw the fall yesterday and wondered if a large holder was exiting. Bored perhaps?!

Why are analysts' mid-case valuations around 65p (the IV article) if the NAV is 40% higher than that? Sure Emirates are a very large company to negotiate with, but AA4 holds some decent cards doesn't it? Six aircraft that Emirates knows and can trust the history. Six A380s that are no longer in production but the airline wants to keep using. Where else are they going to source them from that can be as equally trusted?

I wasn't in DNA but from what I've researched simonm is correct. We won't get much news until much nearer the lease expiry dates. AA4 has done me well so far, so I think I'm hanging on for now.

Guitarsolo

Scouting,

See Big_Kahuna's post on 22nd December which sets it out clearly.

Warrants are an unfortunate but necessary evil with mining exploratation companies. If they didn't exist then the terms of previous raises would have been worse for BRES, so it balances out. In my head I use the fully diluted figure for the number of shares that will eventually be in issue (568m).

Good luck,

Guitarsolo

Thanks Big K,

It led me to have a look at Titan's December 2025 presentation. Accepting I have a large degree of bias here, there were a few things that stood out:

1) Titan's NPV7 = $513m v BRES NPV10 = $1,087m (note different discount rate!)

2) Titan IRR = 37% (v BRES 96%!)

3) Titan's production target = 40,000mta v BRES 125,000 mta (and that's before Beehive)

4) Titan seems to be building a graphite processing plant as well (good idea!). They're ahead of BRES.

5) Titan EBITDA after ramp up = £138m v BRES $230m (again, before Beehive)

6) Titan's phase 1 = $156m v BRES $40m (can't say phase 1s are exactly equal though)

7) Titan's phase 2 = $276m v BRES $120m (again, phases may not be directly comparable)

8) Both open pit, low strip = low operating costs

9) Only mention of graphite quality for Titan is "up to 99% purity". Is that after processing? If so, not as high as BRES. I'm not an expert on this despite an MSc in chemistry! I would love to see that "NASA RNS"!

10) Titan has a letter of interest (in financing) from the US Exim Bank for $120m, a decent part of its capex. Might explain the NPV7 discount rate. Who funds BRES could have an implication for its discount rate.

11) I note Titan has some heavyweight political representation on its board (ex-Speaker John Boehner, Republican).

12) Titan has an existing zinc mining facility providing income.

Of course, you would expect Titan to make a big deal of it being a (the only) domestic supplier. But as Big K points out, it is not just the US market that matters here. MR is smart to also have a foot in the SAFELOOP/ Project Horizon camp.

It's never going to be just about BRES. But BRES has some serious advantages and its numbers speak for themselves, particularly the low CAPEX.

https://www.titanminingcorp.com/_resources/presentations/Corporate-Presentation-December-2025.pdf?v=122402

Very interesing times ahead.

Guitarsolo

Hello Silverblade/ Blackfriar, I hope you had lovely Christmases?

I don't hold any HICL, although I looked at it when reviewing Hardman & Co's research about Infra/Renewables in early 2025. I think I've found it on their website: https://hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/2024-%e2%80%92-a-year-of-trials-and-tribulations/

I like the mix of HICL's assets, although generally prefer availability-based assets rather than demand-based (ever since Covid anyway!). That was one of great appeals of BBGI to me. I think HICL is pretty solid (the TRIG issue aside). But..... the thing that put me off is the flat dividend. It's been flat at 8.25p for six or seven years now and the dividend cover is thin so I don't think that is going to change [much]. That really means that the dividend has eroded in real value by probably 25% or more in that time. Compare that to INPP (or BBGI before it was acquired by the Belgians) where there have been predictable annual increases. I recall that that was the main reason I chose INPP over HICL. But Silverblade is wise to advise diversification whereas I have all my infra eggs in the INPP basket for now. I also hold a few renewables, but let's not talk about that!

Overall, I am keeping an eye on HICL and would buy when there is signs of either an increasing dividend or at least increasing cover to suggest dividend increases will follow. Just my preference because these funds are cornerstones of the portfolios designed to generate income for the retirees in the family and therefore I want to see a rising income to combat inflation.

Guitarsolo

LSE, I believe it is due to the market's impression of RGL's management. You say refinancing shouldn't be a problem.... well, they certainly managed to **** up the bond that matured last year. So I don't think anything is in the bag where RGL is concerned. Furthermore, the occupancy rate remains stubbornly below 80% which is a huge problem. When 20% of your assets aren't contributing to income, but still cost money to maintain, you've got no chance of generating a proper profit.

I agree that the asset sales there have been, at or close to book value, should suggest that the discount to NAV is unfounded. However, we don't know whether they are churning the easy-to-sell assets and get left with the cr*p. That's where the decimation of the NAV, the share price and the dividend have trashed management's credibility.

I acknowledge Damien's point that Stephen Inglis has lost a fortune here, but that doesn't make me feel any better!

Here's hoping they do manage to turn things around next year.

Guitarsolo

Duster, Mike Rolston didn't just come up with the 15% figure. It is an industry standard for post-DFS companies. In mid-October I posted an article citing studies by Cannacord Genuity showing exactly this. So it was nothing to do with MR, or BRES. For someone talking a lot on the junior miner boards I would have expected you to know this. Instead, you're making a lot of very immature comments.

It's not the company Eckie, it's you!

You bought LGEN in 2015 for 279p, after it had risen 40% from March 2014.

You recently bought AV. for 623p after it had risen 40% in the past year.

You recenty bought PHNX for 652p after it had risen 40% in the past year.

....spot the pattern?

All three are good companies, but for long term investors it's about your entry point. Don't blame the company if you get that bit wrong.

And why are you paying tax on the dividends? Unless you're a multi-millionaire or recently received a large sum, there is no need.

Best of luck to you.

Lincolnshire: "So an improved JORC can lead to an updated/revised DFS" and Legalwolf similar comment.

Paul G on Telegram posted a quote from Mike regarding JORC upgrades: "The remaining JORC drilling results are not expected to affect the NPV. They will classify as resources rather than reserves and therefore cannot be included in the mine planning - and with an existing ~15 year LOM, adding additional years would have little impact on value beyond year 10-15. The NPV may still be revised for other reasons, as the DFS is continually being refined. Interest in critical minerals is currently very high in NYC and DC."

I don't know when Mike made that comment, but it sounds recent with reference to NYC and DC. We know Orom Cross has ridiculous amounts of graphite, it's really down to how much of it BRES can sell and how much at premium prices.

Also, the DFS was done on a NPV10 discount rate. If the funding is good that discount rate could reduce (NPV8) and that is a very material uplift in value.

I've added again, for the 10th time after my supposed last purchase.

Guitarsolo

Morning Blackfriar,

They don't give their average price but if we assume 95.6m shares at 122p average that would be £116.5m out of the £200m planned. They would have to really go some to spend £84m by the end of March, so I would imagine an extension.

GS

That's 5% of the shares bought back (in treasury, not cancelled). It is starting to become quite significant.

"Peeps should realise there are over 100 mill more to poss be issued"

Not be ISSUED! Be EXERCISED! FFS.

They are already in the mix and anyone investing money without knowing that the true/likely denominator for the number of shares is 522m shouldn't be here.

"It's still dilution end of the day dude like it or not fact"

It is NOT dilution, because they have already been issued!

The fact you can buy now knowing that the independently-verified DFS is $1.087b with an IRR of 96% is an amazing opportunity as the project is massively de-risked compared to a month ago.

Duster, I would normally just ignore you but on this occasion I think your amateur pub bore character needs a correction.

Firstly, as Metalhead has already pointed out, BRES/ Mike did not issue warrants today. They were exercised. Even with a basic level of investing knowledge you would understand the difference and who is in control of that action.

Secondly, MR didn’t promise or infer anything about the post-DFS share price. He would be crazy to do so. He used industry-standard measures for such things. We’ve been talking about this amongst ourselves for a long time before you showed up. See my post on 14 October for citation of PFS/ DFS/ early-producer/ mature-producer valuations as a % of the DFS for a lithium investment I have.

It was nothing to do with MR “slamming the door shut” on anyone. Nothing to do with Charles Archer ramping the share price and certainly not the implication you are making. CA wouldn’t know precisely when warrants would be exercised. Anyone buying shares today not knowing that there are c.110m warrants, options and performance shares should not be investing directly in companies. You can see it clearly on Slide 15 of the latest presentation. https://blencoweresourcesplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Blencowe-Presentation-Nov-2025.pdf

You owe both MR and CA an apology and preferably learn to only comment when you are accurate and insightful.

Yours,

Guitarsolo

"UFFO of £15.1m (3.3 pence per share) in HY26, increased by 31% from £11.5m in HY25 (3.7 pence per share) as a result of the acquisition of Capital & Regional ('C&R'), offset slightly by the impact of disposals completed over the last 18 months and Snozone seasonality."

So UFFO is up, but only because of the purchase of C&R which they tapped us for the funds. EPS is DOWN! I am giving them time to intergrate C&R but.....

"H1 dividend topped up by 0.5 pence to 3.1 pence per share, representing a 94% payout of H1 UFFO per share of 3.3 pence, to smooth the dividend due to seasonality in Snozone EBITDA; Expect the full year dividend to be based on 80% of FY26 UFFO per share, less the H1 dividend."

So they paid 3.1pps on a 94% payout. But full year will be based on 80% (i.e. 66% for H2) so expect it to be lower than last year. Meaning DPS is going DOWN.

Now H1 and H2 are not exactly equal, so it is not quite a simple as I paint above. But nothing to wax lyrical about!

As a LTH I warn against listening to the narrative because it is misleading. Look at the figures and, in particular, the dividend.

Good luck.

"Quite good...." Is it?

EPS falling and I fear that with an 80% payout for the full year that the H2 dividend will bring us to a total less than last year's 6.6p. So that will be another year of a falling total dividend.

I find it amusing that they wish to highlight the purchase of Growthpoint's 10% shareholding for 75pps. I said at the time this wasn't good for us and in the 3 months since the share price has never been over 75p. So in other words they overpaid (with our money)! Some defended the move saying it prevented a disorderly exit of a large shareholder...... But I am writing to NRR suggesting they agree to buy me out for 80pps... I'll let you know how it goes!

Over the years I have learned to ignore AL's congratulatory language. It's full of superlatives and praise, but you can't hide from the basic figures..... EPS and DPS!

Guitarsolo - still holding, but not a lot.

That is indeed the result of the Budget. However, I think the impact will be muted. There are not that many folk out there with more than £12k per year to save into an ISA (£24k for a couple) and, of those there are, I think most will have sufficient financial means that they would probably already be putting at least £8k of their allowance into equities.

Hi Rivaldo,

I was pleased to see a net cash position at 30 Sept of £6.2m. Skimming the accounts I can only see minimal borrowings (£100k?) which suggests they had basically paid off any debt at the end of the period.

Post results they acquired Emerald for an initial £7.8m (rising to £12m if all contracts kept) which probably included some borrowings from the RCF, but they'll pay that off in no time. And that allows them to follow their playbook with another accretive acquisition.

As you say, given the impact of slow rail CP7, it's a strong set of results.

Guitarsolo

Indeed Silverblade, I look at INPP as a mini, pseudo-pension fund and I am sure some large pension funds out there (e.g. teachers or other unions) are eyeing up a guaranteed 7%+ inflation-linked income. But I would be very disappointed if INPP was taken out as BBGI was. The latter was, in my opinion, the premier infra fund with INPP not far behind. It's nice to make a small profit, but I would rather have these funds available for me to invest in rather than some Belgian public sector workers!

Likewise Big Kahuna (Burger?). I've given up on a biotech hoping it would recover and instead sold at a loss to pump the funds into BRES as a better bet, and join the 1 Million Club+ in the process. Paid 8.11p.

Ghengis "Quite, Which begs the question of why they have done an uncapped deal in France that couldn't be done in the UK?"

Possibly because that is the only deal available to them for UK supermarkets. Negotiating with Tesco and Sainsburys will be tough (of course the same could be said for Carrefour). So perhaps there is no other choice at present with UK assets, hence a large deal now in France on 'better' terms. The advantage of having feet in two territories? Just a guess/ thought.

Guitarsolo

Eckie, no one has been radicalised by the dividend (whatever that even means!)! Some just don't want to keep hearing you blame other people for your mistake.