Member Info for Guitarsolo

Slik, I also hold a fair investment in SUPR and too use the principle of risk free + x% as a guide. I would put SUPR on a higher risk as whilst it shares many of the long-term contract features (I think is WAULT is about 12 years) and most of its income is inflation-linked (with ceilings and floors), I would say the "spend" is slightly, and I mean slightly, more discretionary than with INPP. In other words, Tesco could breach a contract and take the penalties, or just let a lease expire, but you can't really do that with gas pipeline! So I would want an extra % for that please! No science behind that figure....!

Silverblade/ Blackfriars; what's the saying "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", or something like that. Well it looks irrational to me!

This was/is one of Tom Stevenson's (Fidelity) picks for 2025 back in January at 116p. Even better value now. (https://www.fidelity.co.uk/markets-insights/investing-ideas/investment-trusts/2025-fund-picks-international-public-partnerships/)

What can be done about the 30% discount to NAV? The conventional answer is buybacks, more of them. £20m increased to £60m (so up to ~3%) is still only nibbling at the edges. Can anyone advise what they did with the £260m of sales? Was it reinvested in more projects/ assets? That's another options of course, sell an asset or two and buy back some serious shares at a 30% discount. Could they even consider borrowing to fund a buyback? They can borrow for less than the dividend yield so it self-funds.

The upcoming change to quarterly dividends might help if it attracts some of the institutions looking for frequent, not just regular, income.

Who is selling? that's what I would like to know!

Why are they selling? Well it could be the Trump tariffs sparking fears of even higher for even longer interest rates = a higher discount rate. But with much of INPP's income being inflation linked you would think there are worse things to bet on in a high inflation environment.

It's a tough pill to swallow for those holding from (much) higher prices. I have been there in other investments.

On the plus side, the BBGI takeover at a premium to NAV (and INPP's £260m of disposals above NAV) supports the NAV to a degree. Also the renewable ITs, some of which hit 50% discounts, seem to have stopped falling and are making some recovery.....well, for now anyway!

It's a tough market for investors at the moment....but let's keep talking and learning. It helps!

Guitarsolo

[Sorry, this is a bit of a rambling post!]

Thanks Meconopsis (btw, your post was cut off!).

I tend to agree, although there is simply too much information for me to consume and understand fully. But I also immediately went to the CSM and thought "that looks good.... or does it?". But these results reflect last year, when the share price was (rightly it would seem) subdued. There have been positive post-period developments with the US protection business etc.

On the plus side, the CSM is huge (bigger than the market cap), and the solvency ratio is very strong. I think Antonio Simoes is taking a cautious approach to the dividend to give himself more money for buybacks and business expansion, which will bring a long term boost to the earnings and dividends.

I too keep a core holding of LGEN and whilst not excited by today's results, I still think this remains a solid-as-a-rock dividend investment, which is my core aim for it. So I am happy to sit tight.

Guitarsolo

Uh-oh.

Looks like there is going to be another snap election in Portugal. The last one was a significant contributor to the DFS not being delivered in 2024. Will it cause further delays?

Mining in Portugal (instead of Africa) was supposed to have the advantage of political stability!

A real "intellectual investor" (or in fact anyone vaguely intelligent) would realise that in a complex world with so much disruption some things are caused by one's own actions and some are caused by world events or the actions of other players (such as Trump or Putin). But there are many people who are completely one-eyed who have to twist anything and everything to suit their narrative, a narrative usually fed to them by their preferred press or news souce (aka they aren't thinking for themselves). Indeed, those best able to judge situations are usually those who can see and accept more than one side of the story and to form an opinion without pomposity.

Something to think about, wot.

Morning OBNW, Blackfriar, Silverblade.

Nice to hear people's intelligent views of where we are. Infra clearly unloved at the moment but the income (which is mosly inflation linked) is still there and is undervalued in my opinion.

I had been doing some research about where to put the funds from BBGI (which I will sell once we're into a new tax year) and INPP is about as close to BBGI as I can find for yield and quality. It's not "quite" as good, but it's pretty close.

On the upside there is a 7.6% current yield, mostly inflation-linked, good assets, a chance the gap to NAV will narrow, a chance of a takeover/ merger, a chance of a break-up (all of which should be beneficial to the share price from here).

On the downside is the high yield on gilts, persistent inflation = larger discount rate, generally unloved sector in an unloved stock exchange (globally).

I have added another tranche here sub 110p.

Time will tell if that was a good move or not!

Guitarsolo

4.2p dividend declared yesterday.

"As a result of the dividend declaration, the offer price for BBGI's recommended takeover by Boswell Holdings 3 was adjusted.

The original offer of 147.5p per share, announced on 6 February, had been reduced to 143.3p per share to reflect the value of the dividend."

Afternoon All,

Has anyone actually engaged with Mike Ralston about your queries or concerns?

info@blencoweresourcesplc.com

He strikes me as the kind of CEO who is likely to reply and say clearly what he can.

Just a thought.

Guitarsolo

Good morning Older,

Regarding NRR, I think it depends what you're looking for. Firstly, I would explain that I am generally negative here because sadly I'm a very LTH (way before Covid) and remember the company when it was over 300p and paying 21.4p dividend. Then Covid decimated much of the value. That's why I get annoyed at some of the management's rosy rhetoric.

But if you're coming in new I accept you will have a different perspective. Whilst the current share price more accurately reflects a realistic P/E and yield, they do seem to have some difficulty in growing the income. That might be because they have very high occupancy rates already (so no easy win there), and they can't increase rents much in the current climate. On the plus side, from what I know and can see, they do seem to own and operate some good retail assets in generally more affluent areas, so less exposed to their tenants going bust. They have also added management income for managing assets they don't own. It's always useful to have another income stream or two.

So, if you can buy in low (I would say below 70p is low) then it's in the "not bad" bucket! But despite the glowing rhetoric of management updates, don't expect the EPS or dividend to move much.

Good luck!

Guitarsolo

News that Emirates has issued notice to return a second plane in half-life condition:

"The Company, via its wholly owned subsidiary AA4P Beta Limited (the "Subsidiary") has received a notice from Emirates in respect of MSN 164 (registration A6-EOB, the "Aircraft") exercising the "half-life" option for a potential aircraft return. The option provides for a cash sum that Emirates will pay as a part of the monetary compensation arrangements where the final monetary payment will be based on the actual physical condition of the aircraft vs half-life condition. The lease expiry date for MSN 164 is 3 November 2026."

The interim results are still over two months away (14th May last year), although they did release a H1 update on 2nd April last year (an "in-line" update). Will we see the same this year? Does the market need a little reminder of the RNWH story? Operationally, I don't expect RNWH would change much so even if the rail control period has had a slow start, the company can still do what it does best; provide essentially maintenance and upgrading on a costs-plus basis, bolting on excellent companies with the right synergies, and paying off any debt used in double-quick time.

AA4 is available for purchase again (on Hargreaves Lansdown at least). I've bought back the same number of shares at 60.1p as we compulsorarily redeemed at 64.3p, so back to original holding. Happy enough with that, and happy with AA4!

Thanks CJ, it's logical but I do wish I held more inside ISAs!

Just as a reminder, it was the CONSERVATIVE government that most of you voted for that froze the bands meaning pensioners will end up paying tax on their pensions. Another example of you turkeys voting for Christmas! @boomergeneration

https://obr.uk/box/the-impact-of-frozen-or-reduced-personal-tax-thresholds/#:~:text=The%20freeze%20was%20extended%20to,across%20our%20entire%20forecast%20period.

Synthetic graphite has "much better electrolyte compatibility, fast-charge turnaround and battery longevity." All crucial for performance, as the rest or the Fastmarkets article explains (I've seen this before). Natural graphite has a capacity advantage, at least at present. But it's main advantage is cost and energy consumption. Arguably, the greatest threat to graphite mining is that someone finds a synthetic process that is cheaper and less energy-consumptive. The demand for all types of graphite should be strong for many years (decades) to come, but the main advantages of natural graphite (cost/ energy) is why I expect only the best projects will prosper. But if I didn't believe BRES was headed in that direction I wouldn't be as invested as I am.

PS. Nothing is as simple as can be summarised in a post on a forum!

Only the better/ best graphite mining projects will be able to compete with synthetic graphite, which performs better but is more expensive to produce and uses far more energy (= lower ESG rating). Obviously we await the DFS to see the detail, but my bet is that BRES' Orom Cross will be in the top quartile of its peers. Combined with the benefication plans to maximise earnings from the small flakes, meaning BRES is less subject to Chinese whims of the value of concentrate, and I hope the value in this will find its way out. Certainly, a valuation of £13m is unrepresentative of the potential here.....but it is all about the DFS in my opinion.

As I'm now up to 0.1% I think I should learn to sit on my hands! But keep my fingers Orom-crossed.

Guitarsolo

Agree Trek, just read the RNS which sounds very good. There really is no justification for this discount to NAV but, whilst the market offers the shares this cheap, I would say they are a solid buy (no advice intended!).

Guitarsolo

Of course, for LTH the 2.2p is really 0.22p.

Inglis has overseen a 90% reduction in the share price and dividend. And there is no sign of recovering of any of that. How the hell is he still in a job?

There's always a seller! Funds selling to meet redemptions, a private investor selling to buy a holiday home, an executor of a will liquidating a deceased's assets, anyone selling to meet a tax payment that's due! With a £2bn market cap that's a lot of shareholders/ shares that will always be on the move, for whatever reason. Not all "sells" are because someone has a negative view of the company (but many are before someone jumps in!).

Morning All,

I thought I had posted this earlier, but it isn't showing.

Anyway, I wanted to ask if anyone knows how the recent compulsory redemption is treated as regards tax? For previous redemptions my holdings were all inside ISAs, but now I also have holdings outside so need to know how it is treated. Is it like a dividend, or a capital gain?

Many thanks for your help.

Guitarsolo