Member Info for Guitarsolo

There's a blocklisting of 108 million shares (which I presume was approved at the AGM). That would be an 18.7% increase in the shares in issue (if they were all issued). OK, the good news is that they can only be issued at a premium to the NAV so no dilution. Doing a quick check of previous years, the 108 million seems to be a larger blocklisting than normal..... Has anyone tracked this through the AGM? Are they expecting high demand?

Hello HB, it's mentioned in a few of the RNSs:

EG. 18th November 2024 "The Company is pleased with the initial indicative demand for its shares from South African investors and is progressing through the administrative and regulatory steps in anticipation of a secondary listing on the JSE. A further update will be announced when the timing of the listing is confirmed."

Why Jo'burg? I can't say really....there is no obvious connection specific to SUPR. However, the JSE is relatively large once you move out of the top tier bourses. SUPR don't have to refinance for a while, but all REITs do eventually and having access there might be an advantage. I am not surprised many UK companies now seek an overseas secondary listing with the way they have been valued/ treated in the UK!

Market-D: "Buyback has done nothing to Aviva & Lloyd's sp...."

Market, you're confusing the effect of the buyback with whether it was a good idea!

For example, Lloyd's used to have 75bn shares but now has 63bn. If there were still 75bn shares the same market cap would be about 44p per share rather than 53p. Whether the £billions they have spent have been worthwhile, or whether that could have been used for higher dividends or investing in the business, is another question! If a board think the share price undervalues the company, and they can't find something better to do with the money, buying back (some) shares is a valid tactic. It is also generally tax efficient.

Correct Gary. This is one of the RNS about transactions in own shares:

"The Company announces that on 08th November 2024 it had purchased a total of 2,419,401 of its ordinary shares of 2.5 pence each (the "ordinary shares"), through the Company's broker Barclays Capital Securities Limited as detailed below. The repurchased ordinary shares will be cancelled."

Hello Trek,

My take on insolation is that things do revert to the norm, but over a longer period that a month, or months, or even a year. Think over 10 years and it will revert. As to how much short-term isolation levels (which do affect earnings) make, I don't yet have knowledge or experience about that. But my focus is on earnings and dividend cover. If they can cover the dividend with poor isolation levels for 2023 and 2024 that is good. I appreciate, energy costs, cost of debt etc has a bearing too!

GS

Agree completely Rich62!

I've just taken a few at 992p in addition to my core holding. There's a chance of a santa rally bonus (e.g. +10%), or a good run up to end March (e.g. +15%), or even a long term hold (e.g. +25%)! Whatever your preference, under £10 is good value to me.

That's a shame Fisherking, but I can understand. It is hard to be in a share when the share price performance is like this. I've dived in fairly recently at just over 70p and might add one more tranche in the high 60s to hold long term. For me, it's about the dividend being covered.... They are forecasting 1.1 to 1.3 cover for now (I know, they'll be forecasting that all the way until they're not forecasting that!).

I've also got some, but fewer, BSIF at 96p. Same thing really.

As for the buyback, well at this share price I can see why they would. But at less than 2% of shares held in treasury it is nothing more than nibbling around the edges.

Good luck with MNG (I'm there too!). Anything under £2 is a bargain as far as I am concerned.

Guitarsolo

Abject, what's your problem?

Whether or not a friend of mine is likely to be a star of the future is irrelevant. I'm not trying to get a job for her! I work in this market and was passing on some of the things I am hearing on the streets and in the coffee shops of the city. If you know the city, you'll know how that works. Now if you just want to be some angry keyboard warrior go ahead, but just leave me out of this. I'll chat with other people who are far more decent than you.

Adios.

Abject: "‘My friend is the best Amanda Blanc’ I didn’t bother reading anything after that"

You COULDN'T even read the first line! That's not what I said.

I work in this world and was sharing snippets of conversations I had in the city for the benefit of others.

No wonder you're abject.

I was out and about on Leadenhall Street today. Had a coffee with an old friend who (imo) is a future Amanda Blanc. The general view is that Aviva has plenty of firepower if it wants to use it. But at the same time, AB is a very sharp cookie and won't want to overpay. AV. wants DLG, but it doesn't need it to achieve its goals. But DLG's share price had fallen so low the current DLG management left it vulnerable to a bid. So AV. could bid a 60% premium and it is still not much money in real terms. Adam Winslow is in trouble because, if they reject the AV. approach, he absolutely has to get the share price up to 250p+ and the dividend to 15p in short order, or he is toast. He won't want that on his CV.

So AV. is likely to make a second bid at a level to turn the screw on AW and DLG. Unless another bidder comes in, it will be very hard to resist it......and Amanda Blanc knows that!

Hello Damay, good to know you're still invested here (sort of, you know what I mean!). Like you, I had basically written off the value in my mind and thought I'll just come back to it in a couple of years time. I think your first scenario (OEM support to avoid re-engineering) is likely. At what cost? Who knows, but SCE isn't in a position to call any shots. They have to take help on whatever terms it is offered.

Such as shame as the product is so good, but they have made major errors in the ramp up and financial commentary. I still hope and believe it will come good. It won't help me having been diluted into oblivion, but it would still be nice to see the company succeed.

I would tend to agree with Fatherjack on this one. I don't think a company like LGEN states that it is going to increase dividends by 2% per year for 2025-27 and then reneges on that without there being some sort of black swan event to justify it. Added to that, the Solvency II measure is 223% and it has a CSM valued at £14.5bn (more than the market cap!!) which has been growing. With earnings expected to grow "mid single digits" we should actually see dividend cover improve which, combined with the (albeit insiped imo) buyback, further protects the dividend. After 2027, if things are going well, we may see dividend growth improve. However, I think Simoes is eyeing up some growth opportunities so that LGEN becomes more than just a cash cow, it becomes a small herd of cash cows!

Apologies everyone for stating number of shares....not something I do and not my style, it must have just slipped out whilst typing a quick reply. As noted, it is personal and all about proportion etc. But Damien, don't worry there is no nappy required!

But back to SUPR, I was happy to invest at a smidge under 70p where I think the downside protection is strong and, despite there being a concentration of clients, those clients aren't going anywhere.

Sorry, that was incomplete!

I was saying that the discount is wider than normal (now over 10%) which doesn't make much sense to me for most very liquid holdings.

From an income point of view, it is dominated by the Q4 dividend. Where is this likely to land this year?

The discount has become wider than normal (now exceeding 10%), which is illogical for a relatively small fund (

Speaking of shorts, shame these guys increased their short a fortnight ago!

Qube Research & Technologies Limited 0.71% 0.11% 12 Nov 2024

Thanks nc10..... Does that projected cost for the DFS and general expenses (12 months) include the current drilling programme?

I can see why Aviva might think it is a good match. DLG had to offload its brokered-commercial unit to RSA (owned by Intact) about a year ago as it needed to bolster its balance sheet. That makes the remaining DLG more personal lines focused, which is the opposite of Aviva. Yes, there would be competition issues though because a combined Aviva/DLG would have a large share of the personal car insurance market at a time when everyone is aware how expensive it is to insure a car.

Whilst the benefits of the re-pricing are coming through, for sure it will remain a competitive market and others have remarked how we may already have passed peak-premium.

But there are other advantages that Aviva may have their eye on. DLG is a pretty basic model and anyone who did their ACII exams more than 15 years ago will remember that there used to be investment returns available based on the time between a premium being received and a claim being paid out. That disappeared in the ULIR world but should exist to some degree with more "normal" rates. DLG hasn't yet had a chance to take advantage of that because it was losing money during the higher rates era (say last 2 years). Aviva might be thinking that they have huge experience and resources in this area and can squeeze more performance out of DLG. I don't know that, just a feeling.

DLG would be brave to dismiss such a premium to today's closing price. Adam Winslow will know that he will come under HUGE pressure from shareholders to deliver, and quickly. He's a confident man and I think took on DLG because he knew the wind would be in its sails (i.e. not such a hard job as it looked). Does he know something, or does a CEO's ego make him want to prove it?

Oh and last point, yes that is the same Adam Winslow that used to be Aviva's CEO of UK/Ireland!

I own both AV. and DLG (but more of the former).

DLG ran into bother after the 2022 winter claims, combined with some very poor management decisions and then claims inflation. A few acquirers have shown an interest, basically to buy it before the recent re-pricing and presumed improvement feeds through to results. DLG is under new(ish) management and I am sure they want to prove themselves because they're sailing a boat with a decent tailwind in terms of timing. But at the same time, to turn down c.60% premium to an albeit subdued share price is going to put them under some substantial pressure from shareholders! They are are very certain, or very balsy!

But ahhhh:

"On 26 November 2024, the Board of Direct Line rejected the Proposal as substantially undervaluing Direct Line, and has declined to engage further with Aviva."

Fun and games ahead!