Member Info for Guitarsolo

I stand corrected Wanderer. But the sentiment remains the same! Here's hoping it heralds better time for NRR. They have a long road ahead of themselves to pull this back.

Well FactFinder, we will have to see. Whilst I am pleased to see a slight increase in the dividend, it is very slight. The last five years now give us the following DPS:

2022: 7.4p

2023: 6.7p

2024: 6.6p

2025: 6.5p

2026: 6.6p

So the dividend is still 10% lower than 5 years ago! Surely, that's not how it is supposed to be for a REIT! Fingers crossed things have turned.

Guitarsolo

With the DFS approaching, I would think investors are just waiting for it. Traders may be trading sentiment/ rumour/ whatever.

I recall a SAV presentation from early 2024 where they quoted a Cannacord Genuity study for the lithium market valuations where they quoted x0.3 for post-DFS, x0.5 for an early producer and x0.8 for an established producer. The link I had for that is broken and strangely SAV's investor relations page only shows one presentation from 2026 and not historic ones. Maybe it's just me.....

2024 seems like a very long time ago and much has changed since then. But anywhere near x0.3 of NPV would be interesting post-July.

I hope so Inbrackets, but "should be relatively straightforward without further dilution" isn't supported by SAV's history. I remember when there were fewer than 600m shares in issue. Now it's 2.57bn!

Ooops! No it's not, my apologies WelshMusk. Must be more vigilant where I click.

Have a nice day.

@WelshMusk Wrong board!

Drop the "E".

Markus, the company's stated intention is to increase dividends by 2.5% every year. Their financial modelling (including the inflation linkage) shows they can afford to do this for the next 25 years without any new asset investment, which they are likely to make anyway. Since BBGI went private, INPP is probably considered to be the top/ amongst the top funds in this field and history suggests they will be able to meet their progressive dividend promises.

Guitarsolo

Computer, you are being selective with your figures and choosing a momentary high to make the fall sound greater. BRES is actually more or less on its 100 moving average. We could equally say it is up 200% in 12 months as on this day last year you could buy for 2.69p!

I imagine most of us are here for the long term to see value be achieved. Let's just see how things play out.

Just looked and you can buy TR43s (4.75% coupon) for 91.27p so effectivley 5.20% yield on UK government debt. Factor in the 8.73p bonus on maturity in 17 years' time and the risk-free yield is at 5.70%. Surpised to see the high-yielders holding up given that.

Tichtich, I concur with your assessment of the inflation linkage.

Whilst I can't speak with much authority across INPP's 140 investments if we look at two of the larger ones, Thames Tideway and Sizewell C, my understanding is that they are not capped albeit they follow the lower CPI rather than RPI. I recall looking at the details of the Sizewell C investment and concluding that INPP had learned a few things from previous investments (that had caps) made during periods when inflation was a distant prospect. But I am happy to be corrected by anyone who is more across the finer details than I am.

In other news, the share buyback has reached 116m shares which is now over 6% of the shares in issue. Shares are held in treasury rather than cancelled.

I haven't had a chance to read it yet (thanks for the link though) and I am no expert on this sector, but I recall that Tesco's rise to dominance was a large degree because of this. They realised that having their capital tied up in owning their properties was restrictive. So sell and lease-back the asset, free up money for expansion and take it from there. It's a winner for the supermarket, but also a winner for the REIT that has a dependable income stream from a community asset that is not going anywhere. You just need to get the numbers right.

SUPR doing well I feel. It's a buy/add if the market gives you a chance below 80p. The move to a progressive (+2%) dividend is welcome as it attracts the infra-crowd who like that sort of thing (incl. me for certain segments of the family's investments).

Guitarsolo

With pre-tax earnings of just under 100p per share, and £20m net cash (= more acquistions coming) it's amazing that these are only on a P/E of 9. And rail is still going slower than expected (= it will need to speed up to use the 7 year budget).

Oh people noticed Trek! Just too busy to chat much. But the share price bounced up a couple of %, albeit after a ~6p drop.

On the subject of the buyback, they have spend "over £135m" to buy back 111m shares, average price ~121p.

111m shares represents nearly 5.7% of shares (off the top of my head). It's a reasonably large buyback for a £2bn+ fund.

£90m to go, which would be about 70m more shares at today's prices (which will by then be over 9% of the shares in issue, quite significant in my view).

GS

" underpinned by £16.3 million in operating profit"

Not bad for an £80m purchase in 2018. It's probably paid for itself already.

All valid points about NESF, Paul. Being invested in FSFL, NSEF and BSIF I have viewed NESF as the weakest of the three. Those preference shares are a real drag because, if they convert at NAV, it will severely dilute other shareholders. Overall, the sector is struggling. But the sun is out and we have a full-blown fossil fuel energy crisis underway. These solar assets are a dependable source of energy, even if they are not that big in the grand scheme of things (a few % of total energy useage).

"Supermarket Income REIT plc (LSE: SUPR, JSE: SRI) announces that it has increased its secured term loan with a bank syndicate comprising Barclays, HSBC, ING, Lloyds and Crédit Agricole CIB (the "Facility"), for its joint venture (the "JV") with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital ("Blue Owl"), by £222 million to £437 million. The interest-only facility matures in June 2028, and benefits from two one-year extension options at the lenders' discretion. The increased facility is priced at a margin of 1.65% above SONIA and the cost is fixed for the duration of the facility at an all-in rate of 5.24%."

Plenty more cash available for acquisitions, but the net initial yield is going to have to be around 7%+ to make it worthwhile. It's not the cheapest time to borrow, are they looking to take market share even if the margin isn't the most attractive? Someone on here highlighted another company sitting on the sidelines, presumably waiting for cheaper financing. If that was you, can you provide an update on their progress given that interest rates don't appear to be coming down much.

Guitarsolo

Krusty: "Presumably the NESF move means the dividend is more likely to be cut here too?"

I don't know. The sector is very interesting as four companies, each with their own woes, are going in different directions:

BSIF put itself up for sale, and the share price has rallied since.

FSFL seems to be indicating it will hold its dividend and the cover (x1.3) is sufficient. It's share price is basically flat.

NESF has halved its dividend to use the spare cash to pay down debt and for pipeline projects. It's share price is sharply lower.

TRIG agreed to merge with an infra fund, and the infra fund took a big hit!

But why aren't they considering merging with each other to reduce costs and allow more leverage in financing discussions?

Guitarsolo

Eckie: "Biggest loser in the FTSE, so embarassing!! "

You sold out in the mid-230s and are buying back in higher.

You invested instead in Aviva, after its 40% rise, and it is where it was.

And LGEN's the embarrassing bit of this?!

As Robleo points out, why would you invest in a company you constantly denigrate? Or do you only denigrate the nationality of its CEO? Why would that be?

"Just wondered, Simões hadn't by any chance decided to insure some tankers in the Gulf?"

LGEN don't do marine insurance (directly) as far as I know. But Probitas do, they're owned by Aviva.

You need to know more!

We shall have to see Scratch. But the sector is definitely an interesting study for investors at the moment.

We have Bluefield which has put itself up for sale, and the share price is doing well (since the announcement).

Foresight (FSFL) which is maintaining its dividend policy (for now), with reasonable cover. Its share price is not budging.

Next (NESF) has announced a dividend cut with the savings to be used for debt reduction and pipeline projects (i.e. expansion). It's share price is tanking!

TRIG announced a merger with an infrastructure fund, and damaged the share price of the infra fund (HICL)!

We will see what happens to all three and if there is a clear winning strategy. I hold the first three.

Guitarsolo

I've taken the opportunity with this morning's drop to add approx 34,000 shares at under 84p. I'm hoping there isn't an even better opportunity around the corner but as these are a long-term income hold I won't sweat about it. Also added plenty of HFEL at 244p after taking profits from AA4's proposed takeover.