Member Info for Guitarsolo

Sure DN, but you said "It lauched it's IPO almost 50 years ago at £1 and now it's around £2.40ish (an average growth of < 3p per year)"..... In fact, it would have been £9.60 but for the split. So the growth has been much more than

DN "Yes at the split the SP was £10.50 and after the 4 for 1 split the SP was £2.625 but you had 4 shares intead of 1, so it doesn't make any diffence to todays SP."

I think it does! Absent the split the share price would be 1050p today!

As for the tweak to the progressive dividend policy, LGEN is looking to expand its wealth and asset management business, both in the UK and elsewhere. Look at Antonio Simoes' background. The funds from the Cala disposal and recent sale of the US protection business help fund the £200m + £1bn planned buybacks. So I read the reduced increase in the dividend is funding moderate expansion (growth!) of the business. It's a tweak rather than a large change of direction.

AS' explanation in the recent presentation was that rather than increasing the planned "£5-6 billion of returns to shareholders" he is now more confident of achieving it. The slight glint in his eyes made me think he believes there will be more to come and he will delight in delivering that in the future (under promise and over deliver).

Blackfriars, just been reading it. They've certainly been more aggressive with the buybacks recently (and could have done without the spike caused by BBGI's cash offer). That's now 42m shares in treasury, presumably/possibly to be cancelled in due course. So that's gone from 2.0% of the company to 2.2% in a fortnight. Still only nibbling in my opinion but better than nowt.

If the share price stays where it is, I would expect the buybacks to continue apace, probably augmented by a statement to the effect that they will recycle assets if they can sell at or above book value etc.

Overall, I hope this is NOT broken up or sold entirely (like BBGI). I need some of these infra funds as bedrocks of an income portfolio. I need to redeploy funds that will come out of BBGI at some point and, having been doing a bit of reading around the infra options, INPP is one of my preferred options so will likely be adding to my holding here.

Guitarsolo

It's also going to create a CGT problem which will require me to amend some plans. Perhaps a nice problem to have, but still a problem. Thank goodness it doesn't look like it would complete this tax year, otherwise it would be a poisoned chalice!

Same here tichtich/ Monks..... Nice to make a quick profit but I had bought BBGI as a cornerstone investment to act like a quasi-pension for the next 15-20 years. I don't blame BCI being interested in it, for the same reasons I was. But where to reinvest? I hold INPP as well (smaller investment) but I didn't rate it quite as highly as BBGI.

It would be good if we can help each other with ideas and info.

Guitarsolo

"Save your tears for someone who gives a fcuk."

Really?

Well you're nice aren't you.

Johnnyy "You people dont know how unique this companies [sic] product is. Its not going anywhere."

There are plenty of people who know a lot about this company, having lived throught the experience of the last 5-10 years. I was bewitched by the product which, coming from a scientific background, I could appreciate. At the time they were making the discs in small batches to feed the specialist aftermarket. The OEMs found it, tested it, loved it, put in huge orders for a safety-critical component on models (meaning they wouldn't renege on the order because they'd have to redesign their cars). The product was/is unique [you can't be 'pretty unique' by the way] with its continuous fibre. We knew the production process was very complicated, but that had advantages by raising a barrier to entry. But we could see that the product could be produced, albeit in small batches. We listened to the CEO (Johnson) who was instrumental in the intellectual property of the continuous fibre, we listened to Bundred, whose background in the automotive world included a prominent role in the introduction of anti-lock braking systems. The order book stretched to £100s of millions. It had the potential to be a British success story. So I backed it.

What I didn't account for was that the management team, for all their technical know-how, were incompetent when it came to how to turn a small-scale production process into a large-scale, continuous production process. "It's all about execution, execution, execution" said Bundred. But what Bundred was not doing was recruiting experts in production processes, instead he left it to the same scientists who designed the product thinking they could do it. They couldn't.

Sorry Latino, but what you’re saying doesn’t make sense.

“It’s clear new CEO is at work here”…..there isn’t a new CEO! Kevin Johnson is still in post (somehow). There is a new Chairman.

“Has been able to drawdown the £13m loan which has literally saved the company from going into admin”…..Err, no! The £13m loan from the council is for capex only (e.g. installing another furnace) NOT for working capital which they need to produce discs to sell to stop them going into admin. They can go into admin with a spanking new furnace!

“Have £4m of working capital in place so have around at least around 6 months cash”…..You should know that SCE burns though money much faster than that!

“New CEO determined and has given company hell of a chance of survival.”….The only thing the CEO is determined to do is not step aside for someone better suited to the job.

Whilst it is some reprieve that SCE is getting financial support from at least one OEM, they will be getting their pound of flesh without doubt. They are probably doing nothing more than getting as many discs out of SCE as they can whilst ensuring future models aren’t based on them any longer. A weekly range for the yield of 52-78%? 52% FFS!

My guess is they are down to fumes to buy the raw materials and then have to hold their breath to see if the discs come out OK. A couple of bad weeks for yield and they are done for and have to beg the OEM for another go. A bad position to be in.

Years ago, possibly around the time of the 40p capital raise, Bundred said the biggest risk to the company was “execution, execution, execution” [of the scale up]. Well at least he got that right.

Indeed SilverBlade, after yesterday's RNS that's 38,250,000 shares bought back and held in treasury. Equivalent to 2% of the stock. It's still only nibbling at the edges in my opinion, it get more interesting when it's 5-10%, but it's a start. It also saves £3.1m in dividends.

Hi Tony, just a minor correction but EP doesn't say "we could get closer to 100MT" after all areas are prospected, he says "if we get closer to the 100MT". It's a small difference, but perhaps a step down from "could". Nevertheless, it is positive as the resource is potentially big and that's before the other Portuguese licenses are considered where you would hope SAV is a frontrunner given the way it has handled MdB.

Guitarsolo

Has anyone ever seen SAV mentioned in the context of SAFELOOP? (Securely Advancing Future EVs with Li-IOn batteries through Optimized Pathways)

Another investment of mine in the exploration/junior mining sector is Blencowe Resources (BRES) which is building a graphite project in Uganda. Like SAV it is still producing its DFS so carries many of the same frustrations at the moment. However, it has some funding from the US government and recently signed a deal with SAFELOOP to exclusively provide its natural large flake graphite (it’s very high quality). From what I have understood, SAFELOOP is part of the EU’s 100 billion euro Horizon Project. This is from Battery 2030 website:

“SAFELOOP is a collaborative effort involving 15 entities from 11 countries, representing a blend of research, manufacturing, and business across Europe. Transatlantic partners are joining forces to bolster competitive material-level technologies and supply chain logistics.

Key goals include securing strategic raw material feedstock, reducing reliance on Asian supply chains, intensifying environmental sustainability, optimizing energy-efficient processing, and demonstrating technological leadership. SAFELOOP’s focal point is Gen3 EU EV Li-Ion Battery (LIB) safety, encompassing the entire life cycle of LIBs within EVs.”

We know that SAV are in with the relevant parts of the EU to provide a European supply of high-ESG rated lithium. It would seem like SAFELOOP should be part of that. I just wondered if I had missed SAV and SAFELOOP being mentioned together.

Terry, I think you need to get a grip! Now you’re holding Reeves responsible for INPP’s low share price (presumably because you think she is responsible for higher-for-longer interest rates creating a higher discount rate for income generators?). Except inflation is proving sticky everywhere, is that all her fault too? Some of her budget is inflationary (e.g. NI), but whoever won the election was going to have to do something. And you’re claiming the fall in REITS is her fault? Most REITS tumbled in valuation BEFORE she was Chancellor (e.g. RGL, NRR, SUPR, PCA,). Presumably you will give her the credit then if/when INPP’s share price rises? No of course you won’t! Last comment I’ll make about this, of course you can hold her to account for her actions, but you are deliberately belittling her with juvenile names whereas you aren’t doing that for men. Just this week it was reported how misogynism leads to extremism (think Andrew Tate). Go and ask your grand daughters about that.

Silverblade, I quite agree re Cadent. If it was even feasible for someone else to build that kind of infrastructure it would cost way more than the book value. Provided INPP (and other infra funds) can fend off any pressure to wind down (only likely to come from a new activist investor) then the regular cash generation and a reversion to the par asset value should see the share price rise too. And there is always the chance of M&A in the infra market.

I can't see any short positions (over 0.5% anyway). Does this indicate no one is confident it can/ will fall much further? I've only followed GSF for the last few months. Was it shorted during the share price fall from 100p?

Bots, the reason it is mysogynistic is because it is only used against a woman. It's never Kwasi from the Kitchen, or George the Garage Attendant, or Rishi from Records! Whether you think Rachel Reeves is useless or not is up to you. But this juvenile name-calling, intended to belittle her because she is a woman, is on the slippery slope of mysogynism where you find people like Andrew Tate at the bottom. Funny how it is always men calling her that, isn't it?!

Anyway, I've got a busy day ahead of me so can't spend it all explaining that it's no longer the 1980s! Fire up the Quattro....

Guitarsolo

No mentasm, it is juvenile and a sign of mysogynism. Just this week a report warned that misogynism leads to extremism (think Andrew Tate). You may not like Rachel Reeves or her policies but plenty didn't like George Osbourne, Rishi Sunak, Kwasi Kwarteng. They were not belittled because of their gender as you are doing.

Sorry to reply with messages but this needs to be called out.

Exactly Aubrey, there's a lot of hyperbole by people who are clearly not supporters of the current government. They seem to forget the majority of the population have been governed by a party that wasn't their choice for years. The boot is just on the other foot.

Bromtree. "Seriously guys comparing a single aircraft leasing company to GSF is a bit of a stretch!" I appreciate your input here but just to confirm, those "single aircraft leasing companies" own multiple aircraft and the market caps of DNA2+3 and AA4 vastly exceed wee GSF!

Lsimo's comparison was, I believe, about the massive fall the aircraft leasors had compared to GSF. There are similarities but it's complicated. For what it is worth, some investors in those aircraft owners are up over 100% in about two years (me included) and hoping to double again. They ain't small fry!

Guitarsolo

Sorry Theorsy1 but you can always switch off if you're not interested!

Lsimo's comment was to compare GSF's massive discount to NAV to DNA (an aircraft leasing company) that saw its NAV plummet during Covid despite lease income largely holding true. For GSF read that the share price is now at a 50% discount to NAV, but income (such as it is) is expected to hold true.....Yes I know, this is very "new" income and there's the tax credit etc. But that was the comparison. Personally, I think the two companies are just too different for comparison and REITs may be more accurate, but it's always interesting to consider different angles.

And Trotsky, you might wish to take another look at the aircraft leasing companies! DNA is too far into its wind-down but AA4 (which I hold) has a longer run. Their A380s also leased to Emirates look like they are going to be worth a lot more than the value on the books and the loans against them (no advice intended!). They are releasing cash reserves for the aircraft loans because they are confident the planes will fetch enough to easily cover the final payments. See you over on AA4 if you're interested as there is a lot to research about it first. There's a reason that there is no particular newer version of DNA/AA4.....the airlines realise they have to pay them too much and they're better off owning the planes themselves.

Sorry if off topic isn't to everyone's wishes.

Guitarsolo

Thanks Velo, but I will disagree with you!

The reason is that I wouldn't put RNWH into the same boat as most companies that issue a "profit warning" which, by definition, means they are in some degree of trouble. Possibly they have over-stretched themselves, perhaps a customer/contract loss, creditors, or just not going to be as successful as previously thought.

RNWH has an enormous order book, at record levels. The spending is largely non-discretionary.....do you want to scale back on nuclear decommissioning work?! The particular issue was rail infra spending. But the government is committed to doing it and by god does it need doing! My suspicion is that the previous government spent all the money it could knowing they would lose the election and then the incoming government put a stop of things to take stock of the situation. No evidence for that, just a feeling. But the spending will resume and RNWH is one of the few engineering companies with the capabilities. Essentially, there is too much work for too few specialist companies, so you can pretty much guarantee to be busy.

Add to that RNWH is a no-debt/ low-debt company with an outstanding history.

I am not douting the research you cite that x% of firms who issue a profit warning do this or that for the next year. But RNWH is not like most companies, in my opinion anyway.

Each to their own and good luck.

Guitarsolo

Silverblade, I wasn't invested when it was 130p but I would imagine the board thought it a good price for a buyback, without knowing it would go lower. Same thing as my initial investment sub-120p, if I had known it would drop to 110p I would have waited but it seemed the right decision at the time. So like Eyes of Blue says, it just makes for an even more compelling case now.

FWIW, I think the market has lost sight of the value of cash generation. To earn ~7.6% on mostly inflation-linked infra funds is very good when inflation is 2.0 - 2.5% and cash is earning about 4.5%. I will keep adding when funds allow, and to BBGI as well.

Guitarsolo