Member Info for Guitarsolo

Indeed Krusty, when you read AL's statements it all sounds wonderful, transformative, excellent! But given any REIT's tax status I would say the measure of it is the dividend:

2022: 7.4p

2023: 6.7p

2024: 6.6p

2025: 6.5p

So what gives?! When is all this fabulous new leasing and re-leasing going to give us a bigger dividend?

And I promise I won't mention that this used to pay a dividend of 21.4p!

Guitarsolo

Thank you Slowly. As I said, I sold out (early April) so haven't been tracking it.

BBGI is a big loss to (mostly) British investors.

Bear, are you (or anyone else) keeping track of the acceptance level for the deal? I haven't been as I sold out. But, like you, I would dive back in if the deal didn't go through as I was a big fan of BBGI's assets and would happily hold the shares again, especially if they dropped to the pre-deal share price.

Denby, I look at last year's capital raise as part of a (very) long term plan by NG. to fund what is going to be an enourmous rewiring of the whole grid. By raising from shareholders rather than debt, NG sought to balance shareholder equity v debt which was probably a fair thing to do as there has been much more of the latter over the last few years. Secondly, by slightly reducing the dividend in actual terms it has brought dividend cover up to about x1.6 rather than the x1.2 it was at. That allows for a better dividend policy going forward with less stress on it. Remember, if you took up the rights at 645p you're getting about 7.25% yield on that which isn't bad for the bluest of blue chips.

The forthcoming increase in debt is to further expand the assets on which the regulator allows NG to earn money. It's just about the balance of debt/assets/shareholder funds.

I don't like to see my dividends drop, even a small amount. However, in the case of NG I think it is for the long term good of the company and therefore its shareholders.

GS

You're probably right Broomtree. But, if ~30% = 15.5p then what would be returned from the other 70%? That's the problem with VSL, it is too opaque and we just don't know. But given they've paid off the debt, who knows?! Some reduced dividend crumbs along the way too.

What am I saying? You can't polish a turd.

Legalwolf, with respect, I think if you want know that an pre-DFS African mining company is "unequivocally" anything, then this isn't an investment for you. Even in stable European countries like Portugal we have seen three governments in three years delaying Lithium projects. We have macro forces like Trump disrupting previously stable organisations and supply chains. We have the potential for all sorts of instability in the East African region even if Uganda is relatively stable itself (at the moment). BRES has connections with all sorts of partners that have their own exposures which can change their position. These are all things that mean no one in their right mind can say anything is unequivocal. I think you're expecting the kind of certainty that is wholly out of kilter with a pre-DFS miner.

There's much to be positive about (especially for those of us who have been waiting for years); SAV marches on with drilling and expanding the resource, buying the land, planning the roads etc, all working towards a long-awaited DFS.

The only thing is.....the spodumene price. It's still in the duldrums, even if it is forecast to improve. Mining is all about timing..... digging out the product when prices are good.

Will SAV get this timing right? (By luck or design, I don't mind which).

Guitarsolo

Pokerchips, there is no point engaging with Finley. Let’s face it, we know his type.

Being a Brexit supporter (we know he is) means he simply has to find fault with everything that Ursula VDL does or says. It helps him justify his past behaviour. But of course if you look at what the EU has done in the face of Trump’s antics:

- The EU has reiterated its offer of zero-zero tariffs. “But Ursula has rolled over….”

- The EU is building stronger trading relationships with the rest of the world on the back of this (Canada, Australia, Singapore, Japan) . “But the EU has rolled over….”

- The EU is keeping a calm head before releasing any retaliation, in case Trump does a U-turn. “But the EU has rolled over…”

- The EU has yet to ask Trump if he also wants a level playing field on services where the USA has a massive trading SURPLUS with the rest of the world. Funny Trump is keeping quiet about that! “But the EU has rolled over…..”

So much for Finley being able to “spot a wrong ‘un”!!!

As we're finally in a new tax year I have managed to sell my BBGI and have gone in quite heavy in the 106s during this morning's chaos. Fingers crossed.

Thanks Rivaldo,

I find it remarkable that the share price has fallen 40% in the last 6 months based on the fact that operating profit is likely to only increase about 2% instead of 8-10%, with the difference largely being deferred (CP7 rail). The company is following the same mantra that I have invested in since 2012..... costs+ contracts, essential maintenance and upgrade, sensible acquisition and paying off debt quickly etc. A lovely opportunity to add more for the patient investor. I'd expect these to return to £12+ within a couple of years. And there's even a near 3% dividend now while you wait!

Guitarsolo

Honestly Pokerchips, I wouldn't bother with Finley. His pomposity is absurd! Lecturing people with soundbites from the Daily Mail and GBN and making ridiculous unfounded claims like "you have never run a business employed people, what do you actually know, nothing is the answer." He hasn't a clue who you, I or anyone else is for that matter. First rule of making public statements; know who you're talking to, and if you don't, don't make assumptions that are likely incorrect.

With his legendary ability to "spot a wrong'un" you wonder why he's obviously so enamoured with Musk and Trump! I don't think many people would doubt that most western nations, mired in debt, need to reign in spending. But it's easy for any businessman to slash costs, until the consequences arrive. Slash the national weather monitoring budget, until tornadoes arrive without alert. Slash the budgets of health monitoring services, until the next outbreak arrives (ooops, already got one in Texas!). Slash the budgets of regulatory services, until you realise they were investigating the very folk who slashed the budget! No, businessmen/ women don't make good political leaders because in business they have the benefit of being able to work for a much tighter defined group of people (e.g. shareholders, employees, customers) rather than represent the entire population as they should. I can't think of a good example. Political leaders require a very different mindset.

Guitarsolo

I know it is a Trump-induced down day, but is this the ship being a bit leaky? We've seen that before (many times) with RNWH.

Evening Blackfriar....

I agree with your sentiment that the board need to do something about the discount to NAV or leave themselves wide open to an activist investor and breakup. But, absent that, buy backs is the logical answer PROVIDED THEY BELIEVE IN THE NAV!! Why, well it's mathematics really and it depends on the scale of the buybacks:

- Buy back 3% of the stock (about where we are) and you increase EPS by 3.1%.

- Buy back 5% of the stock and you increase EPS by 5.26%

- Buy back 10% of the stock and you increase EPS by 11.1%

- Buy back 20% of the stock and you increase EPS by 25%

- Buy back 33.33% of the stock and you increase EPS by 50%

[This doesn't take into account the loss of income if you sell assets to raise money for the buy back.]

My point is that the differential between the % bought back and the increase in EPS rises at an exponential rate. Buy backs of a few % are nibbling at the edges. Buy backs at a NAV discount on a grand scale can see earnings increase markedly, provided those NAVs are real!

I guess what I am saying is that there is a time to be bold if you have conviction in what you're doing. But I appreciate this is a £2bn fund, not some investment manager's side project.

Guitarsolo

Thanks Krusty/ Monkshood. I've only got 3.96p penciled into a spreadsheet so I should be happy whatever! It has been a good year, which it won't always be. You have to take the rough with the smooth with TFIF, any enjoy the bumper payouts whilst they are here.

Guitarsolo

Having had a read through of the results, they are broadly what one might expect.

- NAV being hit by the discount rates

- Investment Advisors' fees to be ameneded from 1st July to be 50/50 between market cap and NAV (basing it all on market cap would have been fairer to shareholders but 50/50 is a start).

- "Shareholder returns" increasing to £200m from £60m over the next year. So I read that as an extra £140m being directed towards the buybacks (although they don't rule out other ways to return funds to shareholders). If that purchased another 120m shares to add to the 45m they have already bought, we'd be over 8% of the shares in issue and it should start having a material impact.

- Dividend for next year of 8.58p and 8.78p for the year after.

- Dividends paid quaterly from July onwards.

- Some further disposals, some potential investments (but note INPP to no longer have first refusal of the Investment Advisors' pipeline).

But as Silverblade points out; "We now have an entire infrastructure fund sector who cannot invest in actual project activity because buying their own shares represents a higher return."

It's not just infrastructure, renewable ITs and many REITs as well! What a strange world we live in.

Guitarsolo

All looks typically solid. Made in favourable conditions mind, and increase in profits driven by CSM release (but CSM also increased). We get the usual 3% increase in the dividend (it is nice for some things to still be predictable). All in all, very acceptable.

A gentle rise (5%+) into the results. Possibly read across from other insurers. Hopefully it bodes well from some solid results on Thursday.

This deal was announced last summer, but has now completed. https://www.insurtechinsights.com/cinven-set-to-finalize-3-8-billion-sale-of-viridium-to-allianz-led-consortium/

I don't really know Viridium but it's grown rapidly over the last 12 years since it was bought out of Lloyds Banking Group (if I recall). At the time of sale it had 3.4 million policyholders and Euros 67bn in assets. That compares to Chesnara's 1 million policies and £12bn (say Euros 14bn) of assets. So it is something like x4 the size. (Very basic arithmetic)

CSN's market cap is £410m (say just under Euros 500m), which is 1/7th of the Viridium deal.

It's very hard to know if we're comparing apples with apples here, but it supports the view that CSN is undervalued.

Guitarsolo (LTH)

Towards Results Day!

27th March

Do try to get some sleep beforehand!

Legalwolf, it strikes me that you expect a pre-DFS company to have a post-DFS level of certainty. Life's too short!