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What he said.
'those approached for funding support who will have studied all availability Data'. I repeat: We have video evidence that the funds taking part in the placing only cared about one thing and that was the depth of the discount. They were clueless. He had no idea in any detail what was going on. Your generic statements don't apply when clout chaser Paul Hill caught one of them on candid camera.
PL. Many companies get away with Placings at much thinner discounts to the prevailing SP, why because their perceived risk factors are much lower, ours clearly aren’t in the eyes of those approached for funding support who will have studied all availability Data.. Professional investors are merely cold and calculated, unlike most retail investors who buy and suddenly fall in love with the stock, often losing substantial capital thus would be more appropriate to describe them as ‘clueless ‘. Witness the level of passion on this BB when finding AS has strung them along yet again, or heaven forbid someone has gone Short !
"Mondays results should be very interesting"
Not as interesting as Tuesdays though
We don’t know who the funds are yet!
We can’t generalise about their knowledge or reasons why they invested.
Mondays results should be very interesting.
I would suggest the SP is currently in part reflecting the markets confidence in the CEO and the CFO rather than the confidence in the science.
“You simply can't divorce the SP from this as it’s our only gauge to whether or not this investment will pay off.”
This is AIM of course you can divorce the SP to the science and potential, all you need to do is look at other companies on different exchanges to see what the value other pharmaceutical companies are that are comparable, you also need to remember our current phase 1 is extremely data comprehensive, normally phase 1 doesn’t include 10 plus biopsies etc. If people are using the current share price to gauge future company potential, they need to do more research imo.
Oxygen, that's complete BS. We have video evidence that the funds taking part in the placing only cared about one thing and that was the depth of the discount. They were clueless. In terms of expectations, they've just completed phase 1a and proven it's safe. Certainly at least matched their expectation. They were *expecting* to see DLTs and find an MTD. Given they've ended up going way beyond their expectation, that probably fits the bill to suggest the trial so far is beyond expectations. Next up optimisation.
Sorry, If we are back to the market is as thick as mince then that's a pretty weak argument now I think.
Ice, so why didn't the SP reflect this fantastic trial development? Why did it fall instead of rise (and that was way before the RI).
You simply can't divorce the SP from this as its our only gauge to whether or not this investment will pay off.
I can't see the point of a "cure" being found but a SP of 10p can you? And wouldn't you say if they have found a cure that the SP wouldn't be 10p?
Because then you have to admit that the SP reflects (in some measure), what the trial is "proving".
So we have had all the extra , surprising cohorts, taking more time than was ever forecast with an absence of any license deal or TO offer with a severely lower SP over the that time interval.
How does the reality support your analysis given mine is "total rubbish"?
I think the clinicians, oncologists and scientists understand the progress a lot more than the market. Targeting so good as can be seen in data they are able to go for 2 weekly dosing and as a first line treatment. There is no way oncologists would be recommending that if the data wasn't directing them there. They have a duty of care to their patients.
“That says to me (in conjunction with the SP,), that the initial start of the trial did not "exceed" any sort of expectation, as more patients were needed, more dosing, different rates, to try and "prove" it was worth carrying on”
That’s totally rubbish, the objective was to find the MTD in a safety trial. Not to mention the person that’s seeing the biggest response so far is one from the lower dose cohort’s. Stretching the imagination a little there Windy.
And that’s the continuing conundrum, the recent Placing that will have involved many with knowledge in this field,
haven’t shown the same enthusiasm towards the emerging data. Guess many bear the scars of previous CT’s that haven’t quite lived up to expectations!
Loveable, Thats the nub of it I think: ".... they initially planned for 4 cohorts and 12 patients and we had a delay to change the design to 7 cohorts but we also have 42 patients so much more data"
That says to me (in conjunction with the SP,), that the initial start of the trial did not "exceed" any sort of expectation, as more patients were needed, more dosing, different rates, to try and "prove" it was worth carrying on.
I think the 2WD has actually confirmed the disappointment (relatively speaking) from the initial expectations of the trial.
They have got results but it needed some pretty drastic on the hoof tweaking to see if the platform could be of as much use as hoped for.
Anyway, its difficult (for me) to square the SP decline over this length of time with a trial that has exceeded expectations.
Windy the data is exceptional considering it’s more than one patient seeing a response in a safety trial when they weren’t even trying for efficacy. The upcoming efficacy trials will be fully designed to maximise success. Platform concept been proven though (it works as designed and expected), that’s arguably even more exciting. There is nothing in the science and data presented so far that suggests they won’t have considerable success in the upcoming efficacy trials especially when they are designed around Dox sensitive high fap tumours. Nothing will be left to chance especially since the bar to replace the current treatment is so low anyways. Procedural formality imo.
Wyn the timelines have been poor at best but they initially planned for 4 cohorts and 12 patients and we had a delay to change the design to 7 cohorts but we also have 42 patients so much more data. The 2 weekly will likely mean 54 patients (4 cohorts) and given 2 weekly is more focused on efficacy it's a lot of data and info for large partners to take a real interest. Obvs not happy with this year and the awful raise but we're in a better place than ever before IMO.
What were you expecting then, other than 1 patient being on the trial this long showing a fantastic result (for him).
You think after all this time, all the dosing, all the cohorts, all the flip flopping around that this has exceeded what you expected when it started, then fair enough.
The patient with grade 3 sarcoma with near complete reduction?
What a relentless bore.
I hope they are paying you well Ronnie although I suspect not. Hopefully for you it is time based as you are on here all the time.
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You tell me, what has taken place that has been better than expected, given the incredibly high bar from when we started?
Time line has over run by years, causing more cash raises and dilution than ever contemplated. Results are partial, There is a lot of key info we don't know, but given where the raise was pitched I make the assumption that its "promising" as opposed to pardigm shifting (at this stage).
Just my opinion, but you may be one of those that simply doesn't care about this stock as an investment.
Timing is everything. But again, you and I might be talking about different things.
“ nothing to date has gone better than expected”
Are we looking at the same company?
Not not quite a binary play Sheps, as there is the DX division and that market is huge but in the short term that seems a ways off.
So its TX or bust (literally maybe?)
If W2D does go better than expected then I would expect a re rate to around 130-150p as it should com into the spotlight. From there if should trigger all sorts of interest
The potential down side that nothing to date has gone better than expected, and has co-incided with taking longer to, if not underwhelm, then weave on. This then makes this death spiral scenario more of a possibility, but I would expect at that stage it gets delisted and then bought out privately, bypassing the LTH's completely.
End game time now, as I said before. 18 months maybe , with some very key data releases along the way. No margin (imo) for any stumbles.
My "feeling" is given the ultimate lack lustre response of the market over the trial's time thus far, is that it isn't quite the magic bullet I perhaps thought. New platform with loads of potential, sure, but if it just trundles on then its years away still, with millions more to be spent before commercialisation, and as I say at the stage it will not be around as a PLC. (DYOR etc)
YES ,but on the back of this i cannot see AVCT ever getting to anywhere near £5 ,bought out early at a pittance