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It does have debt, but not unmanageable for the size of company it is.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/transportation/lse-nex/national-express-group-shares/news/national-express-group-lonnex-has-a-somewhat-strained-balanc
also, as someone else already pointed out, it wouldn't have been allowed to pay a dividend unless its creditors were satisfied that it could pay down its debt. so give your deramping a rest.
The reason this is dropping is due to algo trades by shorters .
Can’t believe this is legal ,
Just getting hammered so they can make £££££££.
The company has huge debt. That's why it's sinking. Sub £1 incoming.
Hadn't realised stock closed so low yesterday. Very bearish market. Nasdaq needs to adjust back down.
Maybe National Express interesting to takeout. Stock so low. Company recession proof. Secular growth trend.
Yes this is nicely oversold now. However I also think this and some other shares are just suffering from general flow of money out of uk equities. Let’s just hope for a good set of results in July to light this one up.
@paddyboy - I got in on that KCT today. Just brutally punished for obvious news and jup selling stake which is more linked to their own funds woes.
779,901 shares@105.70p ...... blimey.... someone buying to then close a position as NEX peak season nears ?
I think this is near the bottom (hope so).....new month..turned tide !!
Not yet at the previous lows. It reached 66p in 2020.
GLG and Systematica who are both short selling this seem to believe/know the board are hiding skeletons....has anyone contacted Investor Relations or the Board?
Interesting new concerns about the debt level.
NEX reducing their gearing ratio from 3.6x to 2.8x between the last 2 fiscal years. Their target is between 1.5-2.0x. One more fiscal year like 2022 and their gearing ratio will come down to their target range. Considering how decent the reduction in gearing was, I believe the dividend was justified. If gearing remained the same or increased, and then the dividend came back, then I'd be concerned.
I will also add that the lenders blocked NEX from issuing any dividend if their gearing and interest ratios were outside of certain ranges (page 53 of the annual report). Their improving gearing ratio (3.6x -> 2.8x) and their interest ratios (6.3x->8.6x) meant that they were permitted to issue the dividend according to the covenants and conditions of their lenders.
What exactly is it that people are so afraid of?
Mans & QD - like me, I think he’s more likely just fed up of repeating the same thing. What’s the point? I feel very comfortable, like many others. This is a long term investment. If you want to sell, then sell…. If you want to buy then buy…. Nothing I, paddyboy or any other real investors on here can say which will ever convince you otherwise…. Think I’ll stop responding too.
Uncrossing Trade consistently shaves another 1-2p at the close here. Crooks....FCA = ??
@Locky
I've just watched the webminar again from the last trading statement, there wes absolutely nothing of concern, if anything, the presentation was very positive with deep analysis offered in every aspect, good growth, new contracts, positive cashflow etc. I'm actually astounded why has fallen so much, I mean I understand debt refinancing is now more expensive but their incoming payment in November is already bridge and they have over 500m of undrawn facilities.
The f...ing hedgies & shorters are making traditional investing a game not worth playing anymore, they are destroying retail the w..kers
As an aside, National Express have been planning the Mobico Group name change for some time as it was registered to them since Jan 22, so they've been thinking about this move since 21 or earlier.
Loads of shares are down in fairness. I dropped a lump sum in Feb @127 as I expected positive results. I think my buy was justified but due to incompetent central banks (and no doubt shorters) Im down 17%. Could have been worse, I’m always tempted by our miners, especially in the high inflation environment. AAL down 30% and RIO down 20%. I’ll be topping up tomorrow as I’m really sold on the future of this company (even if directors aren’t!) and see it going from strength to strength throughout the cost of living and environmental crises.
Quickdip - we all perform our own level of research & take our own acceptable risks.
Personally I’ve done ok so far.
Okay everyone so here's the deal:
First off, I do not want to act like I know everything, I just want to say what I think is common sense. So in relation to the name of the company, it makes sense to change the name as a lot of minor news about National Express particularly is impacting the company greatly as a whole. Take a look at the several day strike action and how it affected the stock price compared to Also achieving new contracts in Portugal for example. Durham School Services, which is responsible for a large of the group's revenue, was disregarded when there was a lot of more severe issues like labour shortage but the stock price was not as volatile when the news came out. In regards to the stock's valuation, just because it is priced this way does not mean that the market does sees it as overvalued, they are just applying the discount rate of the risk. For me, I do not see a risk when 80% of debt is fixed. Sure, the current and acid-test ratio clearly shows that there is a problem with debt being due soon, but that does not mean that the company can not manage it as many other companies had debt issues that were way worse like RR, but they managed it in the end. Many people talked about dividend payout and how much that costed the company and how it is not well covered. In regards to that, it is clear to me that management feels ready to pay out as they also payed 4 times more that amount investing in a new electric bus fleet for NEX west midlands. Why would management spend money on dividends and 300 new electric buses if they believe that they are really desperate for cash? The current stock price clearly disregards the massive positive news we got for the past year with lower fuel costs, expanding new contracts in Portugal, winning a record 1 billion euro contract in Germany, and record number of coach passengers. Point is, not everything is about director purchases or the several day NEX West Midlands strike or stupid minor news that comes and goes here and there, it is about the new huge achievements that this company is accomplishing but sadly, it seems like for the past few days, people forgot about all that in the light of the current economic issue that the world is facing. Keep in mind that the CEO previously stated that the cost of living crisis was one of the main drivers that made people switch back to more affordable transportation. That with the fact that the new bus fare cap incentivized by the government, will help boost bus passengers. The only reason why this company is where it is at right now is because of its long term nature of having such a low profit margin with a high revenue relative to its market capitalization. This is why a covid lockdown or any other costly issue like the wage rise for bus drivers can impact profit. My average is at 170.8 and I will not sell as I believe that this company is 5 times the value of where we are right now when debt issue is resolved and profit margin is at a better rate.
Coach tickets on Uber with 10% back in Uber Credits
Geng
It's not strange it's just a cxxx share.
On my trip to Hull i was told only the holding name will change the National express over here will remain as will the names in other country they will keep there names but will be put under one umbrella Mobico Group PLC
well thats what the lady told me.
gla
So some of you think the sp will drift down to 60 and sells panic over possibility of share issue …
Why they would change the company name ? Really to continue the same way ? Why would they pay dividends? To mislead investors and be sued? I doubt it, imo it doesn’t make sense.
Agree quickdip bet his secretly sold a few days ago but just chatting nonsense on here
I’m guess Paddyboy sold up today. Gone from posting several times a day to not at all today.
I did sense some panic when I mentioned the previous rights issue.
We were up nearly 3%, now down 2.4%
So a 5% swing from the highs . Thats strange
Manz, they are not facts I recognise. The only part of the assumption that is realistic is that interest rates may well hit 6% and the market is wary of any company with debts because of that (and possibly the over paid bus drivers bit, in the UK anyway). The dividend is well covered and margin and revenue still improving so remains well covered unless there are new worldwide issues arising that we are unaware of. By lack of profit I assume you mean net pre-tax after amortisation of goodwill and not the underlying profit that is clearly there are growing? I posted a message about what I thought was one of the reasons that the SP wasnt holding up well with PI's and my main thought is that PI's look at headline numbers and not the underlying numbers which your point supports. My view is that your scenarios are not the reason the SP will go to 60p but not to say it wont for other reasons. Thanks
60p or thereabouts was a covid low and Interest Rates are going to surpass 6% and markets hate debt and this company has plenty of it. Overpaid bus drivers, a dividend they cannot afford and a lack of profits all suggest this is heading down fast.