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Hindy, I didn't say loads & i agree it's not a day trading share because you need 10-20% swings daily IMO to make that viable. A fair few trading this now short term as far as i can see. Each to their own!
Oh, I totally agree. I would imagine that they would have announced the U-turn with a good deal of reluctance. And I also agree with you that they may have had their hand forced on the issue as well.
But the failure is nevertheless on them.
Anyway, while it remains a strike on their record, so to speak, it is in the past.
To the other poster - this is not/has not been a day trade stock (to my mind anyway) - but it has offered some satisfactory swing trades over the time I have been here.
Without which, my core holding would have been gathering dust, under water (and its real cash value/technical purchasing power further diminishing, like our fiat currency, ahem), so no apologies from me for my strategy to this end :)
Same lwhl we was discussing this recently.
Paddy it doesn’t necessarily have to be such a high percentage but yes stocks that move. A lot trade Tesla for example, because the average daily range is around $6.50 so say you come in pre market and it’s only moved a $1 or $1.5 you would know straight away you could have a decent move coming depending on which way it breaks out long or short.
Back to earnings, we are down roughly 20% in the 20 days leading up to them. Now unfortunately you can’t see the expected move on earnings realease like you can with u.s stocks but say we had an expected 20% move coming (up or down) on earnings release it has already made it to the downside so imo it would take something absolutely horrendous to take this down big and keep it there and not get bought up.
I still think the markets have a little more downside yet personally, may is historically a slow month,sell in may go away all that malarkey. So if we move to the upside and it struggles to hold its gains try not to get emotional we may have have to wait for the main markets to start curling back before we do.
That’s my thoughts
Hindy, well, yes i have swing traded a few shares in the past CPI; Cine; IAG spring to mind & i've usually done okay really. 10-20% gains in a few days isn't bad but i only use small amounts at any time. Not my thing really though. I prefer the long approach as not really labour intensive. This one has really wrong footed me & a lot of others i think but i think what you're saying is probably correct in that the bad news is pretty priced in here now & for this to tank big would take a really poor RNS release. Interesting to see the price action here tomorrow as well as the stuff always gets leaked out. Nonetheless i'll be buying on Monday i think either way as for me these shares are just too cheap IMO!
I agree. And then you have the Middle East stuff, which will also impact everything of course, on top of the 'sell in May' cycle. Thought calmer heads had started to prevail, but then I read the news headlines this morning. Sigh.
Anyway, GLA and until the next update here, will probably sit on my hands. Probably :)
When we expect this results to be published?
Middle East Iran/Israel on the surface, now, just looks like Alpha male bravado .... seems neither side actually wants to take things into war.....just a shame grown up manchildren need to have tit-for-tat exchanges with missiles...
Results are out on Monday April 22nd which is my birthday. I am not confident :)
Let's just hope they wanted the weekend to top and tail a few things and get news out there Monday alongside the results! Urgency and this management team do not go hand in hand so the announcement and quick release seem strange.
Joseywales
as has been posted ...99% of the presentation was already in the bag , no doubt weeks ago...being then held up by the German Regulator changes
so..in affect the final tinkering of provisions and re-writing of text regarding Germany wouldn't have actually added much ..... and .. it seems pretty obvious that behind the scenes they have been pretty frustrated by the hold up and the delay in getting 2023 behind them...
I suspect they cant wait to get these Results behind them... in all fairness ..and they probably have far more Urgency than what the auditors and Regulators have unfortunately allowed them
I really expected shares to rally after the rns given it removes a tail event of them delaying earnings again…famous last worse but I think it will take a very bad update and some nasty surprises to push the stock even lower…believe that the stock will rally a lot on a decent update/outlook and jump in case there is a positive NA update…just added 25% to my position…
gla
HV, i suspect a lot of peeps just waiting for Monday update. I'd expect even an RNS just confirming everything in the last one with no hidden delights will push it upwards. The fear of a DOCS day will be putting off people committing funds today!
Not wanting to raise the old intangibles chestnut again but the price:book is looking a bit crazy here now!
How so?
Yeah, I see a downside of max 10% on disappointing earnings but believe it could rally as much as 50% in case of an NA sale…20% in case of a positive outlook…let’s see
Net Assets: £1.4bn, Mkt Cap: £360m. Doesn't stack up!
Getting ready for Monday. Bottle of whisky still drown sorrows or champagne ? Probably a coffee that’s a bit 😕
HV, i really hope you're right on the 50%. I've way too overweight on this one anyway so adding more at this point is probably not best. Will see what we get Monday!
'Not wanting to raise the old intangibles chestnut again but the price:book is looking a bit crazy here now!'
I think you have to consider that old chestnut if talking about NBV to MCAP though, since it is such a huge wedge of the balance sheet and makes the financial position quite weak. Remember the last impairment wiped a big £260m off the balance sheet just like that; yes I know it can be reversed depending upon the CGU performance and expected economic benefit potential, still a concern for me though.
Not trying to be a Debbie downer as I am also overweight here. Hoping for the best whilst expecting the worst!
As i understand it the impairment costs were factored into the last earnings statement. The Balance sheet in itself, now that the short term debt has been refinanced actually looks very similar to the balance sheet back in 2018. The big difference being in the earnings hit from the impact of Covid. Barring no black swan events if they can get the earning back on track to the 2018 levels this could do well again. A long road ahead here though for sure!
"expecting the worst..."
Anyone thats been here for a while is expecting the worst, as that has been the experience over the last 2-3 years - covid aside. The market is also fearing the worst, based on the experience, which is why we are back at the pandemic fear lows.
I'm expecting nothing much on NA, a small loss for 2023, revenue growth to £3.15b and forward guidance of £250m - £300m adjusted profits for 2024 with a statutory profit of about £75m - £100m. That will be a good result for me and put us back on an upward path. In 12 months if they can deliver that and they should be able to if nothing much changes and the price increases fall through to the bottom line without further inflationary pressures on costs then even with the debt repayments we should return to business as usual. With the exception of a large external event beyond the boards control, I think this is a path that can and will be achieved.
2023 should've been an incredible year for revenue. Travel has seen an absolute rebound - industry wide. The only thing that concerns be is their cost basis - if they've managed this well, results should be strong. Forward guidance should also be positive for revenue... again challenges on profit side. Who knows... I'm underwater, but hopeful!
Hopeless value that’s exactly what I expect on Monday too
On that basis just bought some more…
"The market is also fearing the worst"
On that I would say that the investment Funds that the share price growth depends on, are currently invested elsewhere with better dividends and maybe less finance cost impact...so...for now..aren't even looking here
Funds will pay a lot more for this once they have the proof of recovery of margins and Operating profit recovery .... we are in the " see it to believe it " situation
It is easy to knock the price down when there are few buyers around ... which this share has had for a while.... unloved without a firm Update
Unfortunately the Investment Bank traders and Hedge Fund Hyaenas will no doubt pounce if the BOD do indeed miss margin expectations ... and are unable to demonstrate current H1Trading is showing further margin, cost control, and overall progress
I am tending not to expect any main impairments ...need though to see what things like the FX Derivatives trade at....gains or losses
I am more inclined to think things are past the worst of H1 2023 and as such "overall" moving in the right direction
As previously suggested I am looking to end of H2 to see the overall recovery situation rather than at this stage
I believe everyone is cautious and very little has been leaked. I’ve added an extra 5k… I might get my fingers burnt for a small while if it goes south but I can’t see it being at these levels for too long. I can wait.