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@the accountant How do you keep track/factor in the loss you've crystallised already? 61p is your average now, but doesn't include prior losses
The relevant metric is EV/EBITDA and therefore is not trading at 1x
Results are out on Monday April 22nd which is my birthday. I am not confident :)
@Hindy86 Don't worry, I don't work for HMRC :)
@Hindy86 I'm curious, do you keep track of your portfolio performance since inception? For example, could you tell me what % you are up since you began? (I don't actually want to know) I'm only asking because it became apparent to me recently that many people that I talk to cannot tell me, even though they spend countless hours researching positions. They have multiple accounts and have traded so often, they've 'lost' track of where they are. When I tell them to just take their current portfolio including cash and minus all of their deposits, I am met with a blank stare
Not sure how accurate the following information is, but this is what I have found on Tikr:
Mobico Group Plc expected to report Q1 2024 results on May 2, 2024. This event was calculated by S&P Global (Created on April 4, 2024).
The UK has a very uncertain outlook with more persistent inflation than Europe and the US. The UK markets have been shunned more since Brexit too
Https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/mobicos-disposal-of-north-american-school-bus-business-could-offset-slower-recovery-16-10-2023
If we use the assumptions from this article regarding the net debt/EBITDA ratio falling from 2.8x to 1.5x-2.0x, this implies a debt reduction of between £260m-£422m for the sale of the NA business. I've seen people mentioning a sale price of £1.5b, which seems extremely optimistic IMO and I'm not sure how this value was calculated?
Also, expecting this to hit £2 by Christmas, is absolutely delusional
"Moody's said it expects Mobico's total leverage "to remain material" at 4.4x at the end of 2023. This figure would correspond to a net leverage of 3.6x, slightly above the rating guidance of 3.5x."
Now this is concerning - after making progress on their Net Debt/EBITDA, they are now projected to swing back to higher levels. This is obviously why the dividend was pulled and the decision to sell NA bus.
I just cannot understand what has gone so terribly wrong in 12 weeks? I'm not concerned about bankruptcy risk, but this is one of the worst management calls I've come across in a while
What multiple and profit have you used for this?
Does anyone have a rough estimate of how much operating profit NA School Bus contributes to the overall numbers? I'm trying to work out how much profit the new leaner entity could produce. Also, does anyone have an estimate of what they think NA bus could be sold for?
Hi all - I've taken a look at the historical valuation of Mobico/NE. On a trailing MCAP/EBT basis excluding unusual items, we are now trading at 2009 levels (I've only got the closing MCAP for a given year so fluctuations throughout the year may differ). 2009 multiple - 5.13x vs today's multiple 5.25x. If we assume no multiple expansion at all, and Mobico hit £100m EBT in 2023, then the MCAP would be £525m. This equates to a share price of 85.6p. Incidentally, this is the price I bought my last batch of shares at. It therefore looks as if this really is trading at a very low valuation. Pre 2020, the average MCAP/EBT multiple was 12.9x. Even if we assume a multiple of 8x, which is a 38% haircut to it's history (albeit in a completely different interest rate environment), this stock could be worth £800m or £1.31 a share. A multiple rerating however, will not take place until the management restore confidence, and actually hit the targets they outline in their investor meetings
Based on what? What a ludicrous statement
Sorry, what is piffle? Care to add any actual analysis here or just going to throw around hopes and dreams? Even when the debt is paid, the business as a whole will generate less FCF as it has sold some of its business. Paying down the debt will help, but the earnings and multiple will ultimately determine the valuation going forward
This is called being realistic - I've been holding since September 2020. I'm still holding now and intend to for several years. PBT is now expected to be around £100m for 2023, which is the lowest since 2014 with about £1bn more in revenue
Fair point - but using EBIT/EV it trades at 13x. Again, not a screaming bargain as many people think when the company faces this many headwinds and has such awful management
£1.6b is the enterprise value and not the market cap. This factors in the debt and represents the entire business
After today's drop this trades at roughly £1.6b enterprise value. PBT for 2023 will likely be in the region of £100m, meaning this is trading at 16x EV/PBT. Unfortunately, that is not cheap for a company with this many problems. I recently added at 86p, but I will not being adding any more until I see an improvement in their execution and guidance, which has been appalling to say the least. I'm still amazed that their guidance was so far off and they've been forced to pull the dividend. Absolutely embarrassing to be honest. The CFO needs to go IMO, as well as the CEO
I find it absolutely shocking that a director bought 65k shares at £0.76 in August. The board really seem clueless, and for the first time since holding these shares for 3 years, I am really concerned about their competency
Https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/ba2-bb.asp
Baa2 is equivalent to lower medium grade