Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Wealthtrasfer
I can understand your concerns but why we associate groupo buying with cosmen? Nothing changed significantly. Only we don’t believe we will be able to sale NA business. We don’t believe margins will increase and we don’t believe interest rate will come down.
And that’s what shorts know they open lower with margin and keep it lowers while selling to each others and that’s the reason some just go above 0.50% and appear on the screen.
Hybrid is not a big deal and within time frame it will sort out IMO.
This is a big company they former CFO which shows negligence has kicked out. Cosmen and other don’t like loss.
Keep faith.
Accountant, yes IME main market stocks almost always recover over time. I avoid AIM stocks like the plague as those ones can wipe you out overnight. Patience is the name of the game usually. I'm sure this will come back. My outlook has always been 5 years on this one so i'm not in a panic at all. I see no real reason to. The SP is being shorted which i've seen so many times on stocks also. The shorts will cover at some point. They are taking a risk too!
I wasn’t going to look… but 5% down again today, I couldn’t resist! Ballantye post is spot on and something I cannot get my head around also. Spending £70-£80m on Grupo didn’t make sense unless returning high margins above 10% which from the numbers in the press is nowhere near. We don’t know the price, we don’t know the returns, we don’t know the structure of whether it was a cash deal or not!!! It appears to be a vanity project that Cosmens have been courting for some time. It doesn’t send a good message to investors concerned about debt. the lack of information / communication again is typical of the problem.
We’ve heard about standing tall and not bed wetting etc and that the board are doing their best (which is mostly true and they are dealing with inherited issues and macros out of their direct control) but it’s the lack of care towards the shareholders that concerns me as much as anything. How do you stand tall when we don’t know what’s behind some of these not insignificant decisions. We are all aware that the board isn’t going to communicate day to day operational issues but an £80m spend when cash is so important with no communication at all, other than “by the way we’ve just bought Grupo” is unacceptable.
We need more communication particularly when things are this bad so we can have an informed decision of whether we want to ‘stand tall’ or take a rinsing.
It feels like we are currently cut adrift.
Absolutely, it will bounce back. Over the years, I have learnt main market stocks (esp shorted stocks) always bounce back esp when they are undervalued. Our market cap is now below £300m!
I was in EDV, AAL, RR but look at where they are all now. This all sentiment driven at the moment but it will come back. Find me another company which can generate £3bn+ revenue. We are just lacking cost management, which is primarily made up of our finance costs, but hopefully there is light at the end of the tunnel with interest rates scheduled to decrease and with our new incoming CFO.
JG, yes it does look quite similar to the THG actions. Frustrating but they'll bounce it back up again!
As I said in a previous post the macro will pummel MCG and it is playing out now in front of your eyes - new low just set at 48.38p - you have got to hope the Dow comes back in the afternoon session or low 40's are coming down the pipe
gla dyor etc
The recent acquisition of Grupo recently for around 80m Euros and the other smaller acquisition of the transport services provider in Portugal is where I’m beginning to question what is going on behind the scenes! Both sit in ALSA and clearly the Cosmens made a case for these explaining how they are the growth engine so should be allowed to continue. This capital allocation is not what the market wants to see given (similar to the dividend issue) and is jeopardizing the wider business given how paying down debt should be the priority!
I’m in deep here as well and been averaging down but I’m in over a quid, and these drops are just painful. Although less so that a 4% drop today is significantly less at today’s price compared to 2 years ago!
Good luck all - I will be holding and wish I had the conviction not to continually check the share price multiple times a day!!
Has plenty of revenue but can’t deliver a profit, suffocated by extortionate interest costs.
Only option is a rescue now
Even if/when this does happen we don't know it will be nil, just under the 0.5% reporting threshold
Apologies, I misread it. The change is 0%.
Paddyboy
They're going to attack this just like they did THG, until they show several quarters of improvement, I can see us in the 30s very soon.
Despite all the buys going through they're dropping it at will.
Bottom drawer job for a good while
Where do you see they have reduced to 0%?
It seems like Qube have reduced their short position back to nil.
The Cineworld comparator is a boring old chestnut. Cine was doomed long before it went down. Due to C19, no product to offer, no revenue, huge debt. It was dead long before it finally had the last rites!
2.2 est 2.5, further carry over from yesterdays US CPI, FED BEHIND THE CURVE
Sold some of my holding will buy back in if hits 30s as high chance we will go under 40p especially if there is a bad HY report and we will find out in next couple of weeks if the shorts start to increase again. They're rarely wrong and get leaked info. Don't think this will go bust as a few have said interest payments are under control and will eventually get a low ball bid maybe even as low as 60p.
Ignore the noise on here, at the end of the day you should make your own decision as its your money at risk. Very easy to get sucked into opinions on here especially by a few individuals and saw how easy people got manipulated on the Cineworld board. Look how that turned out.
That would be blatant insider dealing
" Based on what we are saying here it will be NA sale at any value, or RI guaranteed. SP indicates the latter."
SP could be shorting now but knowing a NA sale is coming later in the year ... hence "shorting" ...
need to see what happens after the Quarterly Options finish at the end of June ...
" The value in use of the North America division exceeds its carrying amount by £315.4m (2022: £225.9m). The increase is primarily result of the reduction in the discount rate and increase in the long-term growth rate."
Agreed, it’s financial engineering to improve leverage components. Also interest payments on hybrids can be pushed back and it’s less senior in the capital structure vs other bonds…hence a company has to pay a higher rate for them (usually 300-400bps)
Well they spent £41.1m on dividends in 2023 which will not be repeated within 2024 so that is technically a saving from the cash flow financial cost expense
Based on what we are saying here it will be NA sale at any value, or RI guaranteed. SP indicates the latter.
" This was begun Oct 2023, they said sale prospectus would be prepared and binding offers invited in the first quarter,..can we safely assume interested parties would have submitted an offer by now? "
John33,
They merely made an announcement in October 2023 - " Strategic decision taken to prepare the North America School Bus business for disposal "
" they said sale prospectus would be prepared and binding offers invited in the first quarter "
they said they had "appointed advisers to prepare the North America School Bus business for sale, with an intention to commence a sale process in early 2024 "
In the results dated 22nd April 2024 they said :
" At the date of issue of these Financial Statements the Directors believe that the US Bus sale plan is not progressed sufficiently for the Held for Sale criteria to have been met."
They stated the sale preparation was - " Progressing well"
A hybrid has no maturity date or a very long maturity, but it has a call date ... Seems like playing with words to get debt off the credit profile
Schmoky, they would lose the equity component and hence just be paying premium rates for a normal bond…this only happens in distress when a company has no other way of refinancing.
JG, why would they buy back the equity component…again…the equity component has nothing to do with convertibility or traditional equity as such…the equity like component is due to the fact that a hybrid doesn’t have a due date
https://wealthmanagement.bnpparibas/en/insights/news/7-questions-to-understand-corporate-hybrid-bonds.html
OK, learning! And what happens if not called back?