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One thing is clear almost every shareholder is agree that the company is being run by Garat is doing well in these circumstances. There is no need for change of CEO. Now let’s wait for new CFO and interim result. I hope this ship will turnaround eventually.
Kando
What are you smoking mate?
" Looks nicely set up."
for what??
Good price action today. Looks nicely set up.
Well it looks like all we can hope for now is no profit warning before HY in July, and then no profit warning from July until October, and shorts don't manage to aggressively short this too low.
A lot to ask for given recent events, and probably several more months of languishing.
What a diabolical investment choice.
Qube research is a first for them over .5%
Must be many undisclosed under .5% .
Potential low bids received for NA somehow shorters in the know, couldn't possibly happen could it? nod to pile the pressure on the sp.
Highest level of short interest at the moment.
It is so crazy to think the highest level of short interest its at all time low in share price.
There might be positives in the update but there will be negatives as well.....
Until a positive RNS later in the year arrives??
I admire the optimism, the way this company is going, it's just as likely that we, shareholders, get completely wiped out!
Can't hide my disappointment either, what a sorry state of affairs watching this imposter carry on. 90% increase in votes against the CEO compared to 2023, but from such a low base it's still peanuts without IIs joining in.
Obviously got his city mates to put a few buys through this morning to save him the ignominy of the price crashing into the 40s just as he was about to address the AGM, but business as usual resumed in the closing minutes of trading I see.
This will dwell in the 40s until a positive RNS arrives later in the year. It's a hold for me, I'm not chasing it lower, but neither will I sell. Time to sign off for the summer, even if it's looking as grey as my mood out there!
A pretty much unanimous approval. Quite remarkable. Perhaps now he's finally agreed to sell something to address the debt the II's want to roll with it.
Ignorance (not knowing how to vote) or apathy on the part of PIs. For the IIs, probably as simple as thinking no-one better for the job. Alternatively he could be seen as 'their' man. Needless to say, I'm a bit gutted by the overwhelmingly one-sided result. I did my bit. Not going to sell but looking like the 40s are inevitable now.
Talk about turkeys voting for Xmas, I assume they'll be ready to back him in a cash raise as well.
Not sure what to make of it really.
The sp is like a ski slope through most of his tenure, everybody is well underwater, yet 416 million votes for keeping him in.
Is it reassuring that most of the IIs are happy to run with him?
Are they all in collaboration to wipe out PIs or is that too far fetched?
There cant be many shareholders on here that voted as Garat still at 99.5%
Wealthtransfer
ZUM have beaten Durham (MCG) recently at a bid higher than Durhams (incumbent for 15 years) for around 70m$ worth of contract. Stated by the school board as being worth the extra due to the services and technology ZUM are offering and the levels of driver availability.
I looked into ZUM recently and it looked like they are selling school buses services with AI technology. It sounds like vapourware but lets not underestimate the credulity of school supervisors.
Their problems with Bus driver availability are the same as with Durham
I don't think liquidity at least for now is the issue so dilution is, at least in my thoughts, the least likely outcome.
The only outcomes are we either successfully sell off part(s) of the business to at least repay the Hybrid (and a bit more for investment) or there's a fairly low ball offer from the Cosmens. I cant see anything else playing out (such as dilution) that would be acceptable to shareholders (especially the Cosmens who hold the cards).
Where does the SP end up under each scenario is impossible to guess but I would assume £1+ and potentially better under the scenario of a decent NASB sale.
Which will happen first and when?
But it is soul destroying, day after day, often happens the equity ends up worthless in similar situations, or dilution which is bad as well.
The further it drops it is starting to look like a lost cause and Captain Garat should be thrown overboard for dereliction of duty, is just waiting for the debt ice berg to hit and take us all down.
John - the sum of the parts is still worth multiples but if that isn't the game for the current board then someone else will do it (and keep the uplift) unless the board can turn it around and quickly. It currently all rides on NASB or Cosmens get what they wanted but Im guessing the price they would have to pay to get ALSA wouldnt be worthwhile and they would be better taking it all and breaking it up.
Several posters said that if the individual parts were sold off the sp would be worth multiples yet it still languishes and drifts ever lower, clearly the market must think otherwise.
You would think major shareholders would put pressure on the board for a breakup to recover some value but no. With each passing day the equity is looking worthless and as with all stressed heavily in debt companies, D4E is often the outcome.
Lara - agreed a low ball offer doesnt have to be accepted but when the SP is managed down to such low levels a low ball offer in the context of 18 months ago looks very tempting to many today (im not one who would be tempted and hope large holders also wouldnt be). This is a scenario that I was concerned about on here when many were saying we didn't need to sell assets to reduce debt and that this was a panic situation and we dont want to sell off parts of the business. Well we are now here! I sincerely hope it doesn't happen as I'm very under water but its a very real possibility. I also recognise this could all turn on a sixpence but Ive stopped holding onto wishful thinking and am focusing on worst and real world reality.Im stuck in an all or nothing situation now. If there is no sinister agenda here then I am still hopeful of a return to some normality over the next 2-3 years but not to levels previously hoped.
This conspiracy we were discussing some months ago, only logical explanation why cosmens want Garat in post is to continue destroying the sp.
Or he knows something we don't and is comfortable
Looking at NASB offer and ZUM highlights problem we may have achieving a full bid. ZUM have beaten Durham (MCG) recently at a bid higher than Durhams (incumbent for 15 years) for around 70m$ worth of contract. Stated by the school board as being worth the extra due to the services and technology ZUM are offering and the levels of driver availability. National Express LLC (and the state brands like Durham) are in managed decline without the investment needed to compete with the newcomers looking to upend the existing school bus market. This is what Garat alluded to as the reason to sell, as school bus needs intensive investment. If Zum are winning the bids the question for them and others is do they accelerate their growth by acquiring the likes of NEXLLC NASB businesses and brands or grow through wins on merit, over time. The original $1.5bn guide from Goldmans for NASB looks over egged on that basis and thats likely why the sale is delayed. The focus of Hybrid repayment may bring the aspirational price down to more realistic level.
Agree wealthtrasfer, but 70% cannot force to sell at lowball offer. And a lowball offer in a scenario when interest rates are going down and NA business are gaining pace will not be fruitful either.
So looking at the share price movement since 130pm I gather that Garat kept his job and that there’s radio silence on NA or any other kind of news that might help the shareholders?