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Does anyone think this will soar when vaccine is approved?
68.5p - thats why you wont see 80p
Pubs cant make profits with SD rules in place - Lockdown isnt over, and likely continue in NY
Ill pick up decent amount at 55p - but keep day-trading between 65/73
GLA
This wont unnecessarily help if regions go into level 3 and pubs can not open. Still not a full reopen for us just yet.
We will have plenty of customers wanting to spend money however as we can go not allow so many in . I.e 30% capacity . It makes it impossible to create sufficient revenue to pay wages and make profit
Can see a numbers of problems, if as you suspect the Company will go Contractual, would you not be covered by Distancing Rules, which alone could make opening un-viable? Playing Devil's Advocate, how would you operate assuming tables are pre-booked, you order provisions to meet orders and then Christmas Eve you have cancellations, do you take the risk and open whatever.
This may seem pernickety but many Landlords will be wrestling with the issue of shall I open or not..
We would normally open 11 till 3ish yes , normally staffing isn’t an issue however in my case they don’t benefit from working, quite the contrary . It is infact their view that they run the risk of contracting covid from allowing large groups from varying households to gather. I have to agree with them. Unfortunately I feel the plc will start quoting contractual responsibilities and probably breach me and kick me out. We will wait and see
Leppington it is good to have the views of a Franchisee, and I tend to agree with your position. It makes no sense to open a business purely as an exercise in Public Relief, you need to be profitable.
Unless I have missed something how many Pubs have opened fully on Christmas Day? In my experience they only open until 3.00pm ish to serve Christmas meals and getting staff to work can be another problem especially in a year like this.
What is your take on this Leppington?
The Camerons pub in my town was told to close some months ago and told to expect to be closed until March. I'm surprised the same has not happened to the Marstons pub. They have never done food and have for a long time survived on being packed full on Friday and Saturday nights.
Oh and for the stakeholders information I too own some 52k shares so my decision is not taken by the promise of higher returns.
I suspect I will be lead down the path of corporate bullying but unfortunately for them I’m no pushover
Leppington
A very interesting take on the issues facing all stakeholders in MARS.
From a shareholders point of view with promises of easing being counterbalanced in other reports of longer closures in higher tiers I guess the old adage of "if in doubt do nowt" is pretty fair, as a franchisee you highlight the real problem, why work for less than nothing, or at best, nothing ?
I suspect I know what I would do though, as per the old investment adage in the preceeding paragraph.
I actually ran a Marston franchise, for me the operation is completely not viable on any of the proposed tiers. Therefore I probably won’t reopen. The consumption of food whilst drinking will kit work . It will only force more to stay closed. Marston’s on the other hand are in a win win situation as far as franchise and retail are concerned. Operators are responsible for staff wages which makes it easier to stay on furlough, even through Christmas. The 5 day break at Xmas opens up moral and safety issues for me. Do I put my staff and myself at risk just to allow the plc to make money while I lose. Any opinions??
I cant see why we wouldn't at least see some form of increase
Absolutely no chance of seeing the 80's next week or anytime soon.
I'm hoping we will see 80s next week with the lockdown coming to a end on the 2nd. The BBC are reporting that the 10pm curfew will also be relaxed in most areas which is good news for this sector.
Looks like lockdown will end on Dec 2 and pubs will be open until 11, also a potential total relaxation of rules over the xmas week itself..
Promising stuff for hospitality!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-55029401
Vaccine will take months to get out - then its with the older not the pub spenders.
SD will continue through 2021 making pub numbers limited through winter /spring
Xmas will likely only be a respite - more January/ Feb lockdown likely after the increase spread over Xmas
Investment graphs go out the window IMHO at times like these - esp. in an industry reliant upon social mixing
Just my opinion, but Ive just got out of £20k at a profit whilst leaving my £3k for the long term
Unsure why it would be 55p with the vaccine being introduced and the busy xmas period on its way
The only way to have played this stock of late is to day trade the swings - huge swings.
The period before Carlsberg JV were a little scary but swings were so large you could keep taking profit.
I do think it will be £1 plus in LT but I believe it could be 55p sooner (at which point I will add LT). I've got a small (£3k) investment in my ISA which I will leave for LT and trade the swings.
Sage had a 13% fall today, so anything is possible. Although as a larger company, theres a better chance it will bounce 5% next week
GLA
Hopefully the PM announcing a return to a tiered lockdown in his announcement next week will push the markets up instead of down
Looks like my rating on Mars of 73p is now more reliable on CPI - never mind chaps you are always one step behind.
I totally agree re the BBC, I have given up with both their TV & radio news services. I certainly get the feeling that people are not generally bothered too much with this lockdown but are much keener to just get on with their lives, despite (or because of) our governments seemingly constant changing of tack, but whether or not this bodes well for pubs to open from Dec 2, I haven't a clue, tbh. The Oxford trials seem still to be going ahead well & I see no reason why a few weeks delay will put them at a disadvantage that Pfizer now seem to be in due to the difficulty of mass distribution at low temperatures. I think we need to ignore this background noise & just hope that licensed premises can reopen soon as far as Mars is concerned. But that, sadly, is in the hands of the politicians which rarely augurs very well.
Thank you guys, I intend to be here for the long term as I can see 100+ being achieved in the post pandemic world, but yes I also think the oxford vaccine results will be released before Dec 2nd and that will be the ultimate game changing one for the UK. Not to mention the Pfizer one being approved and distributed very soon.
5 weeks behind? I closely monitor the Lancet as I believe the BBC (Bullsh*t Broadcast News) gives a negative view on everything. It could be sunny outside and the BBC will still focus on saying its not going to last long. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is the effort from Oxford and the trials are being documented very well, it was only earlier today during an interview Dr Maheshi Ramasamy stated the results are very promising in P3 of the development trials. The interview was via Oxford official news press release and ends with promising news that in coming weeks they will release data showing efficacy rates. This will bring the uptick for sure. AstraZeneca will ensure that their efforts are published on the best platform and I would guess BoJo will comment on such news via a broadcast as this is his project. Giving Oxford Ac. & AstraZeneca the best light will be part of a Brexit strategy too, leaders in global pharmaceuticals.
There was no hoped-for jump in prices after Oxford vaccine news to-day, the Oxford vaccine being the one we can get the most of, because all the news told us is that they are about five weeks behind everybody else, so that takes us to after Christmas.
So keep getting the Marston's bottles in, lads, there are plenty in every supermarket. Are there any distillers or wine merchants that Marston's have an interest in?
The Spanish variant of Covid we have already, it was spread to all the richer countries in Europe by idiot returning holidaymakers.
The Danish Mink variety is hopefully thought to be extinct already, thankfully, because those same idiot holidaymakers had probably put Denmark on their wish-list for a winter break.