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London you may wish to re-examine the numbers.
Loan notes amount to £816m
Buildings valuation as at 3/10/20 included Breweries and distribution properties transferred to CMBC in November.
Marstons have a 40% interest in CMBC
Property valuations done by Management and not Professionally signed ( values could be higher or lower)
NAV is circa 72p.
Your figures look great but will they stand up?
Buying a business now when it has ‘no sales’ is ideal if you expect it to have sales in several months time. If you wait you’ll end up paying considerably more. Ideal time for these sorts of bids imho.
Yes, you're right Parsley2.
I'm under no obligation to justify anything to you.
Have a nice weekend.
I bought in at 68 some while back. I see some expect those who bought in sub at 75 to be happy with a 40% uplift. I don’t think that is correct and assume others in a similar position to me feel the same way. When I bought in, the investment was too risky for a lot of investors. I am hoping that my reward for that risk is that this will double, and would be prepared to wait for that. If it is sold at 40% uplift to my purchase price, I won’t be righting it off as a failure however. That’s my honest position.
Good morning all,
I've valued the pubs based on the fair value of the properties because that part of the business is loss making and have valued the brewery part based on the recent merger. All figures have been taken from the Annual Report for year ended 3 Oct '20 and I've excluded normalised working capital balances which would not be deducted from the EV.
(£m's)
Buildings FV = 1626
Assets held for Sale = 350
Brewery Business (40% share) = 312
EV = 2288
Bank Borrowings = -270
Securitised debt = -716
Sale and leaseback obligations = -362
Total = -1348
Price = 940
Let's say the offer ends up at 750m because the P/E firm would need their upside, this would translate to a share price of £1.14.
I hope this helps and it's going to be an interesting month especially if another bidder enters the fray.
Thanks
Peaks.....spot on. There are a few long standing investors here who have the financial future of the company at heart, Trent is one, not a Johnny Come Lately.
Parsley, I’ve seen you around on these boards a few times.
You come across as a condescending, pompous and self righteous little twerp.
Get over yourself please.
‘It’s not me you need to justify your investment to’
‘I’ll partially allow that’
Bore off.
2 x 500k delayed buys @ circa 87p printed after hours.!
Investors wouldn’t be buying those volumes at 87p if they didn’t think there is a good outcome coming.
Platinum will be buying based on NAV & future earnings potential post Covid.
Looking at MARS in its current guise is pointless Parsley ??
It's a bit more than just Certain outlets though Parsley? Morrison's for 1 have a good compliment of our products, as do Asda, Tesco. that's a lot of ale being sold, which as you suggest is going some way to paying some of our debt.
Parsley2, that's not strictly true, is it? there is no ZERO sales scenario. We're selling to all the supermarket chains for one, Cash and carry outlets, and therefore corner shops et al, so debt to a degree is being serviced.
I know that some among us hypothesized this could happen, but did anyone really see it coming?
I know it's early doors and nothing is certain, but still.
Pmoran agree with your final paragraph, however do read the loan agreements . The company have agreed not to pay a div attributable to the current financial year ( ends 30th September) In other words the earliest a div could be payed is Jan 2023.
William hill was different in that they had a solid reputation and a decent foothold in a market that was set to grow exponentially over the next few years as individual states legalised off track gambling. William hill share holders felt robbed of the growth opportunity its that was available to them and rightfully so in my opinion .
The opportunity facing Marston’s in the next five years isn’t perhaps as compelling as that which was facing William hill and whilst I have confidence that they can get the share price up to the £1.50-£2.00 level and Be paying a decent dividend in the next 12-18 months it won’t be without its challenges.
I held with an average of just shy of 50p until today when I added bringing my average up to 68p. I figure we could get an offer around £1.20ish and could potentially push higher than that if more than one bidder gets involved. If there’s an offer at that price I would probably be comfortable. If it’s less than £1.00 I’d be equally comfortable holding and waiting for the sp to get where I expect it to.
I think the problem will be that there are undoubtedly a lot of share holders who have got in at lower prices or long term holders who have averaged down so anything over £1 could well be acceptable to a sufficient majority.
do not expect mega bucks
In times like these Opportunistic investors (Asset strippers) , who are faceless, creep out of the woodwork. I am under no illusion that the bid will meet the expectations being posted.
The company has a huge debt pile, Ralph has got to face bondholders again in April ( the outcome has already been decided at the last meeting). He will be all to well aware the ongoing lockdown, with not certainty of an end, is putting the company on a ruinous course. The Brain's management agreement due to commence next month is unlikely to reap the rewards expected. The whole hospitality sector is in a mess , only those with robust balance sheets will come through to sunnier times.
Those who have got in below 75p may be saying "on no account will I sell". Lets see, Money talks.
The SP has been barely above 1.30 in the last 3 years when an excellent dividend was payed. We are in different territory now, so do expect mega bucks.
I think the same as you on price. I am a lth and used to receive £2300 a year divi on my holding a couple of years ago. Was always a good divi. I sold out at 130p ish and then bought back in before COVID unfortunately, but now have 94p avg. I hope Ralph doesn’t let it go cheap, I’m gonna miss the divi’s if it does sell. But I’m more than happy not to sell and reap the rewards over future years.
Bought in for long term investment, dipped in at various prices along the way up to 50p, looking rather healthy indeed with the jv in place. Really hope they stick to their guns after seeing/hearing their 5 year plan, bolstered up no end so can’t wait for the pubs to open and see the SP climb.
Cant see this happening with the joint venture with carlsberg already a done deal . A case of to many cooks spoil the broth.
Bough some at 85p as an opportunistic bet that a decent takeover premium will be paid. Down a grand already so not v well timed. (Serves me right)
Can’t see them accepting any less that £1.3-1.5 as would easily recover to those levels post Covid imo with the additions of Brains and the Carlsberg JV.
Much better business than pre Covid
What do the long term holders think/ want to happen?
William Hill was different in that Caesars had an ace up their sleeve, which meant that no one else could bid. This is different and other PE could look for a piece of the action. They have been alerted now that it is for sale.
I still think the best thing to do is reject the bid, management are doing a good job and the long term recovery, once pubs reopen, should take it well past £1.50 per share, with good dividends on the journey.
We might as well put a big for sale sign on the whole of what is left of British processing and manufacturing industry . The Government , if only we had one , should say a BIG NO to any take-overs during these difficult times. These people are asset strippers. We will survive once vaccines are fully rolled out . Leave us alone ! ( Long term holder)
VC companys may be flush with cash, they also know there is going to be a huge number of virtual destitute companys for sale in the coming months
Well that's what many of us hoped with William Hill, hanging about waiting for another bid, our money tied up, when we should have got out and got our money into another recovery prospect.
Private equity has a ton of money. They rather missed out before and were too cautious last year. Now with Covid end in site they are looking to do deals galore.
Yes agree , once the covid scale tips and everything begins to pick up , Mars will/would boom ,
now this sword of damocles has turned up
it’s bad news for the pi,s ( long term holders )
Obviously some will like a quick profit