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OMG let's see who's valuation is correct in 6 months ??
Double the Mcap have you tottaly lost the plot !! Are we in mad season already I know mayor holders here need to dump as much as they can at this ridiculous inflated stock price.
And when they are finished this will tank to 80p in a heart beat maybe lower with Brent looking in a bear market.
One more thing: Ithaca's shareholder's equity, as of June 30: $2.508B.
More than its current market cap.
No brainer!
This was double checked today. Even after the EPL raise they intend to pay $820M in 2023+2024.
Such dividend yield is a no brainer.
Should be twice its current market cap.
DYODD
@itsaponzi, @tomo1985, @thehicksdter - You all seem to be pretty unfamiliar with the new Ithaca. It's simply not the same company you know.
First of all, after it bought Marubeni and Siccar Point - it now has $5.4 billion in deferred tax losses. so it's going to pay only EPL taxes for a while. Any comparison with competitors which pay RFCT should therefore take that into account.
Second, compare Ithaca's hedging position with that of HBR for example. No brainer.
Third, If Ithaca manages to develop Cambo, Rosebank, Marigold, Isabella, Tornado, Fotla - it's EPL liability would be very small.
Fourth, just look at its Captain EOR-2 project, that will in two years almost double its current production, adding ~40KBOED.
So a simple comparison between current levels of production across NS oilies - is naïve at best.
DYODD. I suggest you start with its H2 results presentation: https://investors.ithacaenergy.com/sites/ithaca-ir/files/2022-10/ithaca/reports-and-presentations/h1-2022-results-presentation.pdf - and then go on and read its prospectus: https://ithacaenergy-files.fra1.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/Documents/IPO-b2f4d6/Ithaca%20Energy%20plc%20-%20Final%20Prospectus.pdf
I studied it for hours. I can't see how it isn't worth at least twice its market cap right now.
I used to own this years ago when it got bought by Delek. It’s now been relisted at double that price, so has a long way to fall before it’s fair value. Although I note it’s already fallen 20% from its IPO.
They won't let you short this either!!
They know exactly where this is going .
Anyone buying this will lose at least 60 to 70% of their investment in the next 6 months.
AIMHO
Itsaponzi exactly. NS oilies are only really valued at cash at the mo. Nothing is given for production. Serica enterprise value barely a couple of hundred million for almost 30k boepd. Double that and you get Ithaca's production which suggests 400 million would be a fair shout. That doesn't even take into consideration the debt here.
Got in at around 200p.
The mcap doesn't justify the production when look at other NS oilys !! This will rerate to a 80 - 100p to get inline with others.
That's why it's a no brainer short
I am not a holder of Ithica here. But there is no such thing as a no-brainer short. Especially today when the NS get certainty. Could get a nice upward move followed by a down to a new lower oversold price.... you never know.
This is a no brainer short down to a 100p !!
And again at £200.686.
IPO price £2.50 just a few days ago.GLA.
Just purchased some through AJBell no problems.(£2.12)
Tried again today on interactive investor, still unable to buy!!
Tried on ig market too, same story!!!
Unconditional dealings started only yesterday. I guess today or tomorrow ppl would be able to buy.
On the contrary. Any development lowers the windfall tax liability.
And Ithaca has deferred tax assets of around $5B, so in the coming years it's going to pay only the windfall tax. With Cambo, Rosebank and Marigold development, its EPL liability would be low enough for it to profit from.
This is all true, of course, as long as the investment allowance remains in tact.
Why would any sane company develop in the North Sea any more ? How could Cambo be worthwhile at 75% tax or whatever rate the chancellor feels like on a particular day?
I was trying to buy these in my isa and sipp at 205p but wasn't able to. Not sure if anyone managed to buy?
I guess more than 10% off the ipo price of 250 is good?
Thanks
Seems a terrible time to be a producer in the North Sea. Most assets soon to be rendered worthless with increases to the already eye watering windfall tax.
I guess the idea will be to totally destroy North Sea production so that the Scots won't go for independence. Will also move production away from the UK to other countries so we can destroy our own industry just to virtue signal with net zero. What wonderful politicians we have!
Seems like Goldman got a pretty sweet price for them as i read they were angling for 2-3 billion.Just gotta hope the uk government don't stuff up north sea opportunities.Good to have some new listed cos that aren't 'growth' with more than a few decent ones having been snapped up this year.
I suspect they might try the same thing again.
Basically shorting their own company.
The only way I might get back in is if it really tanks to ridiculous levels and seems a bargain.
As George W. Bush said "fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.”
Same, I was a bit cross having had my shares taken away!
ITH would be a lovely diversified at the right price to say HBR. All stocks go from overvalued to undervalued and overvalued again so maintain that I have no bias for an company.
I held these last time. I seem to remember being stitched up just as it was recovering.
Welcome! I'll be watching this one like a hawk. Quite similar make up to HBR - oh the woes of HBR! Wonder what ITH have to offer that HBR do not - fundamentals are not as strong, although you look quite diversified.