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Hey linnn. For that we first need to see the exact hedging schedule. let's wait until Mar 21st.
Sha.... Sha.... :)
Peter lowan and others who i may have missed ref divi .
The current price of Ithaca Energy is pricing a doomsday scenario!!!
In my opinion, this is a classic value stock and money on the floor for those with patience!
Hi tornado10
How much do you think the net profit will be for 2024?
Tamovv this price looks great now will add just a quick two min check to see all ok
1. K2 appraisal well (50% working interest) - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/656dc1c09462260721c56834/PETS_Output_-_DR-2373.pdf
2. Leverett appraisal well (12% working interest)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65b7674bc5aacc000da6841b/DR-2321-7.pdf
Let's hope for good results :)
Let's hope for
Timing as per peterlowen´s link.
Amound per share should be 134 mUSD / 1.010 m shares = approx. 0,1325 USD per share
SORRY if stupid question will we get a divi by end of may and would it be approx 12p .KIND THANKS
I personally was positively surprised by news of latest redetermination of the Reserve Based Lending facility, resulting in available $835M (Q3 was $765M). TBH I was a bit relieved to see the bank consortium not hitting the brakes on lending or restricting divi after redetermination, given Labour's threats.
To me this was a pleasant surprise!
Londoner, many thanks for your swift and comprehensive reply, very useful to me! It also makes me feel less like an idiot seeing others stuggling with posts here suddenly got cut-off because the use of "special-characters" ;)
I adapted your EPL estimate in my model, but was surprised by your low CT estimate first. I just checked the Q3 transcript again to provide the following quote by Iain Lewis: "So again, those total corporate tax payments are around $90 million for the full year, and we expect that to reduce next year. And therefore, we're in the low single-digit percentages in terms of our corporate tax position going forward."
I understood that 2023s 90 mUSD are about to reduce and will become a low single-digit percentage of profit before tax. So given my recent 1,4 bUSD EBIDTAX FC, profit before tax should be about 0,4 bUSD, low single digit can be indeed mean 10-20 mUSD, so I support your calculation (forever whats worth, I am far from an expert in UK taxation).
However, I updated my hedging model and lowered my assumptions for 2024 UK-Gas prices. At current 60 pence/thm my model forecasts a hedging gain of 170 mUSD, but only 1,3 bUSD EBITDAX now.
Does anyone has an estimate for 2024 financing costs? At 30th Sept. last year they stood at 142 mUSD, so close to 200 mUSD annual run-rate. However, currently there is no utilization of the RBL, so just 9% interest on the 625 mUSD senior bond. Thats 56 mUSD only and seems too low to me. I am certainly missing some leasing costs, so would appreciate any comment on this.
For the moment my CFFO (after tax) FC looks like:
EBITDAX 1,3 bUSD (at 80 USD oil, 60 pence gas, 65 kboe/d, hedging as per 30th Sept. overview, 20,5 USD/boe OPEX)
Financing 130 mUSD (just doubled my 56 mUSD interest of the 625m bond)
Tax (EPL+CT) 270 USD
CFFO 0,9 bUSD (what about decom. cash expenses? Do I miss these?)
Londoner, sorry for confusing you with my Rosebank Capex question. CFFO is before Capex, this is clear to me. I was just wondering whether high Rosebank Capex in 2024 could be potentially used to cancel EPL in the very same period, but its not possible.
Tamovv, I might be having the same problem you had earlier. I'll try again after removing a special character that might be causing the problem
EBITDAX provides a good insight to the EPL charge before allowances. I’ll spare you my workings, but I estimate a current EPL charge for Q4 between $42m-$57m, making a total for the year, $330m. However, the Q1 current EPL was high at $126m, which makes me wonder if that included a $72m refund of the 2022 payment. If so the current EPL charge for 2023 is $258m. This is in keeping with numbers I posted last March (?) where I implied the 2023 EPL charge would be less than $314m. Given the lower 2023 production and prices, and the higher CapEx spending, much less than $314m.
In summary, in 2024 I’m expecting a c. $260m EPL cash payment and ‘low digits CT’, which I going to surmise is $10m, for a total cash tax payment, $270m. Cash tax paid YTD (Q3) is $163m, and I don’t expect a Q4 payment. Therefore, a c.$100m additional tax payment in 2024 compared to 2023.
(I’d be delighted if anyone can critique that analysis.)
I’m unclear about your comment on CFFO and Rosebank CapEx.
CFFO is after cash tax payments and Decom spending, but before CapEx spending and acquisitions.
To be clear, after 30% dividend payments, 70% of CFFO is available for CapEx, acquisitions and debt repayments.
I missed a section:
EBITDAX provides a good insight to the EPL charge before allowances. I’ll spare you my workings, but I estimate a current EPL charge for Q4 between $42m-$57m, making a total for the year, $330m. However, the Q1 current EPL was high at $126m, which makes me wonder if that included a $72m refund of the 2022 payment. If so the current EPL charge for 2023 is $258m. This is in keeping with numbers I posted last March (?) where I implied the 2023 EPL charge would be
Tamovv, I wrote this in response to your 14:44, but after reading it a couple of times I decided it wasn't sufficiently rigorous and pulled it.
However, after reading your follow-up I will post but please treat with caution
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I wouldn’t assume that the $97m Rosebank investment occurred in Q4.
At Q3, CapEx was $346m. In the presentation CapEx on producing assets was $293m, so I assume $53m had been spent on Rosewell, leaving a balance of $44m (97-53) spent in Q4. Total Capex spend in Q4 was (392-293+44) = $143m, which equates to an EPL allowance $65m.
I wish the EBITDAX number of $1.7 billion went to a 2nd decimal to provide a more accurate number for Q4. At $1.70 billion the Q4 EBITDAX number would be $322m. I estimated $371m, but stock movements can be noisy and I’ve no insight into them.
EBITDAX provides a good insight to the EPL charge before allowances. I’ll spare you my workings, but I estimate a current EPL charge for Q4 between $42m-$57m, making a total for the year, $330m. However, the Q1 current EPL was high at $126m, which makes me wonder if that included a $72m refund of the 2022 payment. If so the current EPL charge for 2023 is $258m. This is in keeping with numbers I posted last March (?) where I implied the 2023 EPL charge would be
Somehow need to challenge my own statement unfortunately. They didn´t explicitly mention to have spent the 97 mUSD on Rosebank during Q4 only. Thus, it´s possible that their 2023 CFFO was lower than my 1,2 bUSD estimate and the positive impact of the investment allowence could have been (partly) included in the 280 mUSD current EPL tax at 30.09.23 already.
Looking forward to any comments here regarding 2023 EPL burden payable in 2024.
Fully agree! Can´t wait to see their updated Hedge book end of March. Hope they logged-in some additional 80-82s $ for oil.
Balance sheet remains strong with further deleveraging in the period
o Adjusted net debt of $677.4 million at 30 September 2023 (31 December 2022: $971.2
million; 30 September 2022: $1,143.6 million)
o Group leverage position of 0.37x adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDAX (30 September
2022: 0.61x)
• Second interim 2023 dividend of $133 million paid in September 2023, taking the total year-to-date
dividend payment to $266 million
• Significant build on hedging book during the quarter, with 10.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (68%
oil) hedged from Q4 2023 into 2025 at an average price floor of $77/bbl for oil and 140p/therm for
gas at 30 September 2023, with attractive winter collar ceilings of approx. $88/bbl for oil and over
300p/therm for gas for the six month period to 31 March 2024
• Building on the PROTECT arm of our Capital Allocation Policy, Foreign Exchange hedges of $200
million placed at an average rate of $1.23: £1 (of which $150 million was placed following period
COMPARED TO ENQ who hedged at 60
Solid figures, costs per barrel seem to be under control. Hope they can manage below 21 USD/boe for 2024 despite expected drop in production. Hope management will guide accordingly end of March.
Glad to see the 97 mUSD Rosebank investment in Q4. To the tax experts here, do you think thats sufficient to have avoided additional EPL tax burden for 2023? At the End of Q3 ITH was at 280 mUSD current tax (hope this will be the final EPL charge for 2023).
They didn´t disclose CFFO (after tax) for 2023 today, but I expect them to have achieved 1,2 bUSD (having the 100 mUSD Rosebank investment in mind plus further reduction of about 100 mUSD net debt. in Q4). Thus, 30% of 1,2 bUSD are close to the 400 mUSD dividend they´ve finally confirmed today.
Not a single word about Cambo today,...hoping for some good news soon. Nomination of new partner or at least extension of that end of March deadline to avoid a desaster.
I agree to Tornado when he was saying the market might value ITH based on sales or EBITDAX multiples, rather than dividend potential. I feel not uncomfortable with my 240-250 mUSD 2024 dividend FC. If management includes such a ballpark number in their official guidance end of March I see this approaching 1,50-1,60 GBP. DYOR.
Solid figures, costs per barrel seem to be under control. Hope they can manage
Https://www.cityam.com/ithaca-energy-scales-back-north-sea-investment-due-to-energy-windfall-tax/
I hope you mean 150!
Picked up a few more gla . IMO 1,50p by results
Dividend confirmed. Trading in line with previous expectations -
Let’s hope the market likes it!
It's going to be interesting today 😃
I'm especially keen to see if our estimation was correct. And wonder if they'll avise on 2024 divi.