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Brent & UK Gas prices recovering from yesterday with also a weaker £GBP versus $USD here
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
Is that realise a surprise to you, all North Sea companies have said the same, its a clear message to UK government, if the latter dont make the North Sea investible, the UK O&G companies will be taking their investment elsewhere
The First Half Results say:
"Until the fiscal regime is improved, as a direct result of the Energy Profits Levy, investment across our operated and non‐operated portfolio has and will reduce, including the deferral and cancellation of certain 2023 and 2024 projects, impacting medium‐term production outlook, with production in 2024 expected to be lower than 2023 levels."
Is that a cause for concern?
Its another third, so 133 mUSD. Remember this from the last conference call.
Timing for the rest is shortly before Year End.
Looking very much forward to the results on Wednesday. They should suffer more than harbour from lower energy prices compared to last year, because of less hedging.
Crazy to see them paying 400 mUSD dividend this year, compared to HBRs 200 mUSD but 3x production. Would be interesting to hear if they comment on future dividend development at ITH. One of the last presentations gave general guidance in terms of percentage of CFFO, so with EPL still in place I think they have to cut to 200-250m from 2024 (just avoided to cut this year to not totally screw up IPO investors...).
Still one of my favorite stocks even though it fundamentally looks significantly more expensive then HBR. Like the management team at ITH and also at Delek Group. They just were a little unlucky again with timing of the siccar point purchase, could have bought it for 30-50% the price a little later... :-/
It has only just been updated, Tamovv. I’ve been checking regularly is well.
The remaining divi is about $270m of the $400m that they committed to. Not sure what the payout proportion will be at the interims.
Sorry, just seen Ithaca finally released it on their own website. I swear it hasn´t been there on yesterday already :D
Londoner,
Many thanks for providing that date. I wasn´t able to find it.
Could you please share your source? Looking very much forward to their Interims.
Interims next week, Wed 23rd Aug. You'll get your answer on the dividend date.
Anyone know when the next divi is?
Https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=67c0f6c2-5a9b-4633-8e6b-dd08726c05df
Https://www.ft.com/content/407b834e-a503-4de9-acab-fcf88d76dbb3
Anyone know when the next dividend payment is due, is it likely around Oct-23
Here on ITH and on TRAC today......what do we think this will rise to today?
"Norway's parliament in 2020 introduced temporary tax incentives to encourage petroleum investment at a time of low activity, triggering a rush of applications from energy companies."
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/commodity/WTI-2355639/news/Norway-approves-more-than-18-bln-in-oil-gas-investments-44211297/
Meanwhile, Tweedledum and Tweedledee compete with each other to stifle investment in very necessary UK resources.
AceOfClubs
Why the hostility Deadly? I have the previous poster on filter too so had to log out to check. He is a vagrant troll who flies in from time to time.
I want ITH to do well because we have mutual interest. Where are the retail holders of this stock - there is little message board activity here? Anyway, there is a point to this post. Yesterday on Politics Live from 1:32.50 (you can get it on BBC iplayer) Nick Thomas-Symonds Shadow Secretary for Trade said that whilst the Labour Party would honour Rosebank coming into production because it would probably be past the finishing line when they take the baton they would not be granting the same facility to Cambo.
EnQuest also have two large fields that could impact the industry and reduce our import bills which will carry on past 2030 even though NTS said that Labour would be promoting a "clean energy sprint towards 2030" in energy terms when "our reliance will be on home grown renewable energy". If NTS thinks that the renewables which currently supply (say) 20% of our energy needs will replace fossils by 2030 then he is delusional. Another Welsh windbag.
I think every retail holder of oil and gas stocks involved in the North Sea should write to their MP pointing out the idiocy of these kind of statements and the damage they are doing to this country.
Pls no HBR and ENQ bagholders here!
Floated at 250p which was a ridiculous valuation!!
True value here is 50p to get inline with likes of harbour and enquest in the NS !! Mcap £1.6b when Harbour is £1.9b and production 3x more just doesn't make any sense .
Give it time the drip will be a slow death here over time ..
One to watch.......
One to watch ....
Tamovv,
Looking at this section from your post:
EBITDAX 2023E: 1.800 mUSD
- 120 mUSD financing costs
- 660 mUSD DD&A
Accounting profit before tax: 1.020 mUSD
Corporation tax (at 40%, without applying tax losses): -408 mUSD
EPL (35%): -449 mUSD
CFFO: 822,5 muSD (30% equals 250 mUSD, so nearly sufficient to close to gap to the 400 mUSD divident target this year)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Your interest is in the Cash Flow From Operations (after tax) number. What was that number in 2022?
The presentation slide 23 has net cash from operating activities at $1.723m. This seems to me to me the metric for determining dividend payments. The slide doesn’t include tax payments but if I deduct the $184m tax charge from EBITDAX I get $1,732m, so isn’t that essentially the calculation?
The 2022 tax charge of $184m, included $131m for the EPL, leaving a $53m conventional tax charge. My understanding is a ‘net deferred tax asset’ of $392m should result in a low level of conventional tax in 2023. But I’m not an expert in oil taxation, e.g., where does $53m in 2022 come from? Next month’s Q1 numbers might help. In the meantime, I’m going to focus on the EPL charge.
I don’t see where you get EPL $449m. I have $283m. But rather than looking at the detail of my EPL calculation I think it’s worth reflecting on the $131m 2022 EPL charge as a point of reference.
2022 EPL is paid on a cash flow from Ops number of $1,723. Abex and finance costs are non-deductible, but lease principle and CapEx spending is deductible.
Given your 2023 EBITDAX $1,800m is below the 2022 number $1,916m and 2023 Capex guidance S420m is above the 2022 number $381m, and both movements reduce impact of EPL in 2023, then grossing the 2022 EPL charge will set the limit for the 2023 EPL charge.
2022, 7-month CPL charge, ((131*(12/7))/25%) = $898m equivalent FY EPL liability before 25% rate.
For 2023, 35%*$898m = $314m.
Therefore, based on guidance and current oil& gas prices the 2023 EPL charge will be <£314m.
* On the lower Q1 production I’ve revised my 2023 Q1 EBITDAX down to $475m (same as 2022 Q4)
Please forget the below, I had a massive formula mistake. Seems like I shouldn´t be working with Excel after being a night our partying...
Sales 2023E (at 72 kboe/d and 85/85 oil/gas): 2.237 mUSD
Net Sales (after positive gas heding effect): 2.362 mUSD
EBITDAX 2023E (19 usd/boe and 62 mUSD admin): 1.800 mUSD
I have to correct myself in another point, which has a non-minor positive impact. My approach regarding financing costs was way too unsophisticated and resulted in an error. Despite catching myself to be on the rather too optimistic side, the finance costs posted below are way too high (I could have noticed that 200m at 1 bUSD net debt. doesn´t fit, even in a rising interest rate environment):
The 200 mUSD financing costs in 2022 did include a non-cash part ("Accretion"), as well as it has to be recognized that net debt. was higher mid of last year, so some banking charges should disappear in 2023. The senior debt. is stable, so I will carry-forward these and adjust the other parts as follows:
Financing debt 2023E should consist of,
Interest for Senior notes (625m): 62 mUSD
Interest for RBL and other charges: 50 mUSD
others: 8 mUSD
Total 2023E: 120 mUSD
EBITDAX 2023E: 1.800 mUSD
- 120 mUSD financing costs
- 660 mUSD DD&A
Accounting profit before tax: 1.020 mUSD
Corporation tax (at 40%, without applying tax losses): -408 mUSD
EPL (35%): -449 mUSD
CFFO: 822,5 muSD (30% equals 250 mUSD, so nearly sufficient to close to gap to the 400 mUSD divident target this year)
From 2024 at 78 kboe/d and 85/85 USD/boe CFFO could improve to 1.280 mUSD, so depending on a potential price floor a 30% dividend distribution rate can be sufficient to keep 400 mUSD. Please forget what I´ve posted on yesterday.
Nevertheless, without a proper price floor, CFFO remains below 0,9 bUSD even at potential 82 kboe/d in 2025.
So my general statement, that 400 mUSD dividend could end up a "one-off" this year remains intact. Really seems like some fiscal support is needed to maintain the 2023 dividend.