The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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I sugest you read the Canaccourd brokers report.
Now that is a a juicy document to read !!
So happy being a GGP holder :-)
This is going to be fascinating to watch today. It isn't going to be pretty I'm afraid.
GLA
The given NPV does not support the current inflated mcap at all.
Why?
Outstanding economics delivered from just the first 14Mt of Havieron's South-East Crescent Zone
Greatland forecasted to become the 2nd lowest cost gold company globally1
Starter Mine carries the full project capex and provides a launchpad for early cashflow and
long-term growth
Disappointing!!
Niiiiiice.....
Greatland Gold plc
("Greatland" or "the Company")
Havieron South-East Crescent - Pre-Feasibility Study released
Outstanding economics delivered from just the first 14Mt of Havieron's South-East Crescent Zone
Greatland forecasted to become the 2nd lowest cost gold company globally1
Starter Mine carries the full project capex and provides a launchpad for early cashflow and
long-term growth
Absolute rubbish. You couldn't make it up...oh, you have...
Newcrests probably reports a dismal npv to crash the ggp share price and buy them out on the cheap. Been there before, very similar with sxx.
TT
There are some moving around here with their own agenda. Probably not even holding shares. They probably do know about the PFS, but any opportunity to sow doubt in the minds of novice and even LT investors will be taken.
Best not to engage I think...
You're right. Very frustrating though...
Yep at least it points out all those that are either trolling or simply not bright enough to grasp whats going on.
The problem is clear, yes the PFS is for Phase 1 but even when you look at the valuation based on $/oz and use it for a much bigger resources. We still not get nowhere near the current stock price. Newcrest reports net present value (NPV) of phase 1 of $228m for 100% of the project. Which values Greatland stake at $68m (£50.8m). This is based on 1432k oz gold and 62kt copper which gives 1742k oz gold equivalents. In the resource estimate from 10 Dec 2020 the total resources at that time was 4200k oz gold equivalents. Based on Newcrest valuation showed today of $130/oz ($228m/1742k oz), the total resources would be valued to $549m ($130oz*4200k oz) (100%) and $164m for Greatland Gold share or 3p/share. This resource will grow but even if it doubles we are looking at a valuation of 6p/share for Greatland based on Newcrest valuation methodology
Good afternoon all, from a very hot day in SE Asia.
So... what a fantastic report and presentation by NC.
As many have said, the PFS was up to early 2021. Don't lose sight of that fact...
Lots of news flow to come for the rest of the year and December should be a special month. Just a few weeks away...
It would be crazy to try and trade this over the next few months, if at all, in my opinion.
I'm sure that any sells will be mopped up and moving forward the institutions will be watching more and more closely, ready with serious cash to invest.
Don't let 'em take your tickets folks...and ignore the trolls that will no doubt appear!
GLA
Thanks to those who have posted on this point already!
I don't often get wound up, but, I just can't understand why some people still just don't get it about the PFS cut off, despite it being discussed here for weeks, nay months now. It has been made patently clear by Shaun Day, on numerous occasions, and, in fact, having to clarify it to shareholders.
He stated, yet again a few weeks ago:
"The PFS is due out in the second half of the year and that's really well advanced. Again, when we've talked to the market about this, it's based on a point of time. It's based on where that..the cut off for drilling was around 1st March this year, so all of the drilling you've seen for the last 6 months is upside on top of what's been captured in the study and really it's going to be a segment of that...It's really focused on the fast start."
We all know that the upgraded MRE, expected in early December is something completely different!
GLA & DYOR!
This is a major milestone passed; and work on the FS has already begun. I didn't see the Newcrest presentation but I understand they emphasised the "base for future growth" point and clearly expect much more in the coming months and years; and explained why the PFS has to exclude the inferred resource.
The headline figures for NPV and IRR will not impress on a quick read. But anyone close to the Havieron story should know that:
- for regulatory reasons, the PFS is based only on the 14Mt of indicated ore reserves; and excludes 37M of inferred resource (albeit that the former has a notably higher grade)
- the cut off date of February means that the PFS has necessarily excluded all drill results since then (so little more than the initial MRE of December; and of course none of the inferred resource)
- drilling results in 2021 confirm a high-grade ore body of about/at least 600m deeper than the resource covered by the PFS ("SE Crescent Deeps") - so there's perhaps 100% or more at lower levels under the existing SE Crescent
- expansion drilling covering Northern and Eastern breccias and the newly-christened North West Pod provide lots more scope to expand the resource
- Canaccord in their note of June remarked on the drilling to date yielding 6.5k oz per vertical metre, which supported their estimate of resource of 2 to 5 times the existing resource (the December 2020 MRE which is much more than that covered by the PFS).
So, the mine will be built and Newcrest will proceed to 70% and perhaps to 75% in return for payment to GGP; there is so much more to come (and soon - next drill results in a fortnight; increased MRE later in 2021). Traders and others may focus on the initial NPV and IRR, which are probably lower than they expected for the reasons above. But I think this will do well over the medium term.
The NPV reported by Newcrest is considerably lower than all analyst estimates out there.
NPV of $228m gross for Phase 1, gives $68m (£50.8m) net to Greatland or 1.29p/share. Its phase one only but 1.29p per share in NPV for Greatland looks pretty grim.
What’s the general opinion on share price action today up or down?
Listened in last nite and had a good read this morming, what was emphasised throught out the PFS is the potential size of Havieron the gold and copper at depth happy days ahead.
Assay results are due.
You understand the concept of a loan?
Strudel,
I didn’t realise we had to pay NC the 50million back!
Ignore me, those dates related to resource estimates
“ This Mineral Resource estimate is based on drilling completed by February 2021.
Since the initial Mineral Resource estimate an additional 45 drill holes were completed between November 2020 and February 2021”
CC
MH01 .. exactly people need to remember that this is just a small portion of what we have, the AISC will come down and the IRR will rise ( both considerably ) the more they confirm in the future !