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Tricky, you won’t see a TR1 because RF never held on to their shares long enough to establish a holding large enough to warrant a TR1 in the first place.
Tricky not knowing what she’s going on about .. somethings never change
The RNS gave me some reassurance on two fronts. Firstly, it was an attempt to buoy up the SP and keep up the interest which indicates that the placing is not a charade to disguise going private. Secondly, the RNS confirms the company's view that full recommendation is expected. Therefore, the company at least has not heard anything since to indicate that the final recommendation will be any different to the draft.
Yes the RF deal was bad and led to the slide in the SP. However, it was confirmed they hold no shares and GDR has now clearly decided against any further drawdowns so that's the end of it. Good riddance.
Hardman report:
From recent Hardman report:
Genedrive
As the old saying goes: “if it is difficult to understand, it is almost certainly detrimental
to shareholders”. Never has this been more true than in the case of Genedrive (and
more recently, Sareum). Although I accept that the board was probably in a difficult
position with a shareholder list of mostly retail investors, but desperate for cash, the
loan facility announced in March 2023 with Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC Ltd
(Riverfort) is extremely complex. After more than 35 years as an analyst, I consider
myself reasonably financially literate. However, I can honestly say that I have read
this agreement at least 10 times and I still do not fully understand it!
In summary, Riverfort made £5m available to the company. £2m was drawn down
immediately with the remaining £3m available for £0.3m monthly drawdown subject
to certain conditions being fulfilled. The loan capital is being repaid through the
issuance of new shares to Riverfort priced on a specific calculation (reference price)
and can be sold in the market, based on a series of conditions related to daily
volumes traded. On each drawdown, Riverfort also receives warrants equal to 40%
of the drawdown at the recalculated reference price, exercisable at 140% of this
reference price. The following table shows what has happened to date.
In my opinion, this deal is very bad for shareholders. To date, the issue of shares to
repay the loan capital represents dilution of 32.3%. The main reason for this is that
Riverfort is not a long-term shareholder, as evidenced by the fact that it sold down
its holding of 6.5m shares received in April to only 2.95m (-55%) by July. Even
though it has received more shares, its holding is not disclosed as being >3.0%
declarable threshold. Therefore, it is continually selling shares, which, in turn, causes
the share price to fall, making the next drawdown even more expensive.
Based on the current share price, Genedrive will need to issue an estimated18.25m
more shares and a further 8.0m warrants, which would provide the potential to raise
another £0.85m. dilution of 56% and in the
event that all the warrants are exercised, this would increase to 78%, but potentially
raise a further ca.£2.8m. However, given that most of the warrants are out of the
money, there is a high probability that the warrants will not be exercised.
Amazingly, Sareum announced a similar deal with the same investor in November.
On the evidence of GDR, guess where the share price is going!
I get the Hardman report through my subscription to Research Tree. I think I can get in trouble if I share it directly because of the subscription terms.
Published Jan 12th 2024. Overview of 2023 page 13 and 14. The author says it's the most complex finance arrangement he's ever seen and the way the warrants and shares are issued (warrants represent 140% of the funds awarded) the deal as a whole is a 78% dilution. He includes a chart which shows that Riverfort just sell relentlessly as much as the agreement allows.
Great if they're out. I will watch for a Tr1. When SAR got them out they told the market formally.
RF no longer hold any GDR shares. It was confirmed by CFO Russ Shaw in the recent Investor presentation. They made it clear they didn't want to go to RF for any further funding so as far as I'm aware they are already out. The damage to the sp was done over the last 12 months though. A hugely dilutive raise done 12 months ago would have been far far better than the deal Budd put in place. I will never understand how the Chairman Gilham let it through...oh but hang on, the Directors can now buy shares at 1.5p rather than say 15p. Stitch up for lths if ever there was one.
@ TM - The only Hardman report I see was published in 2019, would please share the report you are referring to?
@trickymatters, might be worth checking out the last investor presentation. James cheek and russ indicated that they believed that riverfort had now sold out completely, barring the warrants they hold. Whilst not conclusive evidence, I generally read that as they were no longer in the picture so not holding the SP back (fund raise aside of course!). Worth a watch
I wanted to get back in prior to the NICE guidance for your stroke marker. But I have just read the Hardman research note. Grim reading. The author who is an accountant says the Riverfort deal is barely understandable but it's a terrible deal for shareholders. Then he shows that Riverfort have just been relentlessly selling vs any buys, there's a formulae attached to this, so they will sell vs a proportion of the volume whatever it is.
It means GDR survive but your sp can barely rise and will ultimately fall because Riverfort don't act like investors. SAR has just got rid of them after less than a year. Because they had the same experience. GDR have got the goods. They should be able to raise themselves by now at a decent interest rate. You guys need to get them kicked out. It's just some billionaire ripping off ordinary people.
HARL are experiencing a similar fate. £900 million worth of signed contracts. They need £100 million to support work in progress but now they owe the same to the US private equity firm who have also smashed their sp in half.
Why people think the Tories are the Party for investors I don't know. Shocking stuff imho.
Hope it works out for you. Hope Cheek is maybe working towards kicking them out. I will buy in if he does but otherwise too scarey. Such a shame. Brilliant and much needed products.
Answer the question Cheeky will you take the company private??
I'll just assume all of america had a lay in today
The market doesn’t trust Gilliam and the 3 amigos !
Great endorsements from both Profs Newman and Prof Bridgewater excellent work Genedrive team
Well I was expecting some positive RNS to land, to convince RI's in a timely manner over the line. this one is pretty mediocre but when one has a large salary to protect...i d be releasing an RNS about the fragrant smell of my fart frankly. Tiger you get the prize for buffoon of the week, saying it will multi bag to 20P + in weeks, followed by saying "nobody knows for sure" hhaha.. clown costume in post.
Hahaha what a clown, not heard wait for the americans to wake up for a while
Systemzero, very good advice there.
Tiger...bit of advise.. don,t take Doctor Death,s essay seriously...he,s a snake in the grass...
Roger, that’s what I keep wondering… why have they imposed a minimum amount or nothing policy? The only rationality in that for me is if they have a plan B organised that will also give them the minimum amount but just at worse terms (more dilution etc).
Roger thanks for your post and apologies for sounding optimistic ... I am also in the red as well by the way .. no one really know what will happen here , the partner in the USA, the NICE approval and then the placing .. it could go either way .. all these post here are all speculations and most a idiots spouting rubbish against each other .. which is no use to us .. lets please all endeavor to post like roger ..
Doctor Death .,back to his old tricks...he wants to buy in lower than 1.5p...so is scaremongering...with his long winded essay,s
My only concern is how quickly some brokers will allocate the new shares. If some get them immediately and sell (assuming price above 1.5) and others have to wait a week it’s not going to be very fair.
That said I would have thought most people will hold at least until the NICE news July 10th for a bigger profit.
The Point I am making is that they will get the NiCE appoval , and hence this is why buys are coming i now .. and this is a clear sign the placing is def O/S ... they knew this and hence BOD made a play to keep the company in his control rather than get IV .. or loan .. or partner .. this is now a safe stock and will return 20 p in july for sure ..
Tiger, I know you’re optimistic here but I read your post - there are buys coming in their thousands - and then saw there are actually 142 trades in total. Please post sensibly. Many lths here who are seriously in the red and we don’t need senseless ramps like that. Is fascinating to watch from the sidelines and for a moment there I thought I’d missed the boat. As soon a ms the buying started some quick fire sells appeared so I think there are many jumping in for quick day trades.
What happens if they can only raise 80% of what they were seeking? Surely they still go ahead with it all and hopefully the forthcoming good news will help stabilise the mcap and see them through to a less dilutive raise early next year..?
Honestly think after some initial selling once 400m new shares are dumped on the market the sp could go on a bit of a march as we approach July 10th. Full Recommendation and confirmation that the NHS will confirm its adoption plan within three months and things could look very interesting.
For now though I still see it as too risky to buy on over 1.5p