Investing Matters Podcast - Episode 3 featuring award winning tech innovator Elizabeth Gooch MBE is now LIVE. Listen here.
Yes, from the presentation it sounded like they were getting close to concluding the question rounds and satisfying the authorities. I would initially expect 50p+ on approval, but likely much higher over time, especially with CTDA approval hopefully about to be granted.
So much negativity on this board! It's clear imo that it is traders looking for a low entry. There is zero chance of a placing at the moment, a relisten to the presentation is all that is needed to confirm this if anyone is starting to doubt. When these approvals start coming the shareprice will move swiftly north.
I think there is a good chance CTDA will land this week, when it does it'll be 40p+ in minutes. The DAM deal should prove to be very lucrative, we just need that dam approval :)
“South Africa's daily Covid cases soar 467% in a week with 16,055 new infections and hospital admissions surge 365% to 279 amid Omicron wave - as country warns its R rate could be 3.5“
“ Public health experts in South Africa and the WHO have insisted cases are only mild and vaccines should still be highly effective against the strain, despite a lack of data. But UK Health Security Agency epidemiologist Meaghan Kall warns that data currently suggests Omicron may be 'worse' than Delta.”
Also worth bearing in mind most hospitalisations happen 10-12 days after first being infected so it’s still too early in most countries who have only just started seeing Omicron. The percentage of Covid cases in general that result in hospitalisation is around 2% I think, so wouldn’t expect any severe cases yet.
Hopefully it turns out to be really mild, but going by what’s unfolding in South Africa it doesn’t look like it.
It is interesting how dificult it is to buy online at times this morning. With all the stock sold over the past few days market makers shouldn't be short of stock, if they are then there must have been or perhaps still are some massive buys in the background. Either that or the mm's are simply trying to weed out the weak holders... in otherwords they're trying to give the impression there is less buying demand than there is.
Yes 3 days since the big drop, it looks like the dust is settling and I expect we should see this building to a decent bounce now imo. Colin's questions and answers in the next couple of days should dimistify a few uncertainties.
Colin was simply saying that he believed it was imminent, it’s difficult to take that out of context haha. He also acknowledged that he was wrong.
What we need confirmation of is whether their tests works with Omicron. The vast majority of LFTs are expected to work, nevertheless confirmation is needed, and will likely boost the share price.
People taking Colin’s comment about not being able to see where the demand will come from, out of context and twisting it. He was talking about tests for the government. And this was 1 day before Omicron was all over the news, quite obviously with cases now expected to rise there could be significantly more demand.
Huge upside here on any positive news.
It's staggering to see how rapidly Omicron has spread in South Africa. The scary thing is if this new strain is much more infectious than Delta and causes a surge in new cases, then even if a smaller percentage of these cases (vs Delta) result in hospitalisation it could still be a much larger number of people in hospital and cause mayhem again.
The government will want to make sure they don't run into a shortage of tests. We'll have to see how things pan out, but I do think it's more likely now compared to last week that the government might see it prudent to renew or draw up a new contract with ODX. If not we can use their facilities anyway so either way things are looking positive.
They've only found one PCR test that can be used to actually differentiate Omicron from other strains...
From WHO website...
"This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs. The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa. Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage."
Lol no of course not! What I meant was in response to your "if/when approvals come" doubtful sounding comment ...that I believe the government might speed up the CTDA process in order to have high quality tests available asap to try to control the spread of Omicron in the most effective way.
A different potential scenario, if the new variant causes a massive surge in testing demand it is possible the government might relax certain regulations temporarily to meet testing demand. Who knows... it is just a thought. The FDA relaxed their processes for Emergency Use, so it is quite plausible.
If anything the new variant will speed up CTDA approvals. The government will want the highest quality LFT and PCR tests to be available in the UK, not held up by new regulations... they might even temporarily relax CTDA.
Demand for testing is about to increase so it's also worth remembering DAM can sell our tests in Europe and Mexico right now.
LFT testing will obviously not be replaced by PCR testing, demand for both will increase as more new cases increase. PCR testing, though much more expensive simply has more accuracy so is often used as an extra layer of security to confirm cases and variants (used after a positive LFT tests). Some PCR tests can be used to detect virus strains.
"Several labs have indicated that for one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) and this test can therefore be used as marker for this variant, pending sequencing confirmation. Using this approach, this variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges in infection, suggesting that this variant may have a growth advantage."
New cases were going up even before Omicron, if this new strain takes hold like it is doing in SA then testing demand (both LFT and PCR) is bound to increase. Absolutely huge numbers are testing positive now in SA. ODXs government equipped facilities may prove incredibly useful ...and lucrative.
They didn't pretty much write covid off in any way at all. On the contrary they were very positive and enthusiastic about the DAM partnership, the increasing sales and otehr upcoming commercial partnerships that are waiting on approvals. I can see a huge bounce in shareprice now.
It's also interesting and very worrying to consider that even if it turns out that Omicron has a lower percentage of severe disease compared with Delta, the fact that new cases in South Africa have shot up 10-20 times the usual daily rate in just a few days means that the number of severe cases will likely still be far more than we have now with Delta (in other words even if a tiny percent of Omicron cases are severe it will still be a large number due to the sheer number of people infected). That's assuming the spike is caused by the new variant.
If Omicron is responsible for this huge spike in cases then it must be much more infectious than previous strains. New daily cases have increased by 10-20 times the usual daily amount in the past few days. They've seeing an increase in moderate to severe cases in youths too.
Even if the symtoms turn out to be milder than recent strains, the disruption to the economy due to increased infection rate could be significant. The pandemic is most certainly not over.
The BOD had no idea Omicron would be in the picture the next day.
Reintroducing PCR testing won't reduce the demand for LFT testing, both will be used and demand for both methods will increase significantly, they compliment each other. Naturally PCR tests are way too slow and expensive to replace LFT tests, so both will continue to be used.