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Worth remembering that the NHS co-developed the AIHL test.
How I understand it is the NHS have initiated and driven the development of a test that they need to solve a real problem.
Hopefully specialised commissioning will be under way from the start of the new tax year...
https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/annex-1-services-suitable-for-delegation-in-2024-25/
Specialised commissioning 2024/25 -
Services suitable for delegation in 2024/25...
"118 - Neonatal critical care services - NIC - Specialist neonatal care services"
We might be in that.
It has fallen since the Covid days of course, however there have been many many rises during that time. Also need to remember that it reached £3 from around 8p or so ...there are 2 sides of the coin.
Now things are very different, we have NICE recommended, world-first products on the brink of commercialisation. And with a currently rock bottom share price, the potential upside is once again looking very interesting!
The Genedrive salaries are inline with most AIM companies. OBD pays their CEO even higher, and they have about 14 directors lol.
Nissan, yes it can absolutely hit 22p this year. I think it will reach a lot higher if the 7 uk sites go live, the European site goes live, stroke marker gets full recommendation, we win the grant money, the FDA process gets under way… all and more is anticipated to happen this year and should result in a much higher share price.
That ensures and confirms they can still make drawdowns from the facility... £1.5m remaining to be drawn down.
The RNS was letting the market know they've received the tax credit and that they are looking for a longer term funding solution. It certainly wasn't released to deliberately crash the share price.
Correct - They still need to raise extra for FDA though and as they say they're looking for a longer term financing solution.
I also don't believe they released the RNS last week to crash the share price. The only thing in the news release that was new to the market was the positive news confirmed receipt of tax credit funding and to reassure that plans for funding (rather than going bust) were still the situation. Positive RNR1 test and stroke marker test news to come imo.
The board recently issued warrants at 6p to management staff (x5), it's unlikely they did that whilst thinking they will dilute the shareprice to 2 or 3p a few weeks later. Most likely there will be positive news to come imo. Afterall including the RIverfort mutual agreement facility they actually have 6 months of funding left.
Remember they still have £1.5m to drawdown on mutual agreement from Riverfort in addition to the £1.2m cash they currently have.
Positive news on both AIHL and the stroke marker test could result in a much higher share price from which to agree a new funding arrangement at.
OBD just did a large traditional placing with 20% discount. If it’s a Riverfort facility again then as with the existing facility there may not be any discount, the initial £2m was at 32p which was the closing price from the previous day.
I think there’s a good chance the share price will be higher than it is currently, when they announce a deal.
The interims will actually show sales for the first time in years at the Brighton hospital. We will find out if they received anything for the initial overseas orders too. I recall with the covid test, BC actually gave them 500k for the initial orders. If Cheek has continued with the same proactive approach as his first few months then I like to hope there will be several new positives revealed at the end of the month.
Good posts Neil and others. Regarding hospitals taking up the test, the situation is all the hospitals want it. Currently though they have to fund it themselves, through their charities or other means. As of November Genedrive are helping 7 other trusts with their business cases, with the goal of them gaining funding. These are hoped to be able to adopt the test this year.
The only details I know about locations are that several NICU hospitals across Surrey, Sussex and Kent are going to get it. Non-NICU hospitals will probably come later.
So my guess is the 7 hospitals are in those counties and will be getting the test soon.
Cheek said in November that he believes at least one overseas hospital will be using the test routinely by the end of this year too.
Specialist commissioning is still on track according to wallbrook, we don’t know the timelines but when it comes all the NICU hospitals will be given funding to be able to get the test straight away. The share price will imo multibag on that news if/when it comes.
Neil, I understand there is around £1.5m left to drawdown from the facility under mutual agreement.
The initial drawdown was £2m from £5m total available and they issued them 6m shares at 32p which I recall was actually the closing price the day before the announcement. So no, the dilution was minimal however the market cap was higher then.
They could definitely do something similar again, even with Riverfort or other partner.
My thoughts are there will be some positive news either before the interims presentation or during that will take the shareprice up enough for a decent funding deal.
MyIPA, I had confirmation recently that the company is still able to drawdown cash from the Riverfort facility on mutual agreement. So they still have £1.5m outstanding to drawdown from that which would give them another 6 months of cash for general business usage.
Yes this is the FDA raise that we knew was coming... they're seeking a longer term funding solution by the sounds of it which I expect may be a similar facility allowing them to draw down cash when needed. So they might initially drawdown enough for the FDA submission imo.
They also still have £1.5m to drawdown via Riverfort when they need to.
I expect the purpose of the RNS was to settle all the questions they've been receiving about funding and the concern over whether they would receive the tax credit before they run out.
The funding will be organised after the interim results imo, which should include some highly positive updates on both the stroke marker and MT-RNR1 tests.
Yes quite good news actually, there's clearly no chance of the company going into administration. FDA partner deal may well be connected to this.
That would make most of their current warrant worthless, as there would be almost no chance that the share price would go high enough to use them at the price they were issued at.
Roger, I think you might be right with the Riverfort strategy however they would need to buy those shares. I understand them to be options to buy shares at the warrant price.