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Yes some challenging targets together with a bullish forecast for the coming year could work wonders. A savvy BOD might certainly do that. Let's see if they have their wits about them this year.
Added a few, we're due news on a few fronts in the coming weeks...
Confetti season for the BODs let's see if they can show some restraint or even set big sp targets for rewards this year
As I see it this is a bottom drawer stock with a patented medical grade producr that could provide safe and effective treatments for Cancers, Autism and perhaps Alziemers.
With an MCAP that bears no resemblance to the Stalicla deal or the possible upside....
Waiting for the catalyst to start sending the sp into orbit
THIS IS a bottom drawer stock imo and therefore just Take a peek in every now AGAIN ..
But everyone to their own views
Down again today and after so much steady buying I am surprised. Proinvestor seemed pretty positive about this stock but if there is no news on Monday, I will sell the few I have and move on.
Thank you for your response and note all your comments.
Showjumper
Always take the postings on these boards with a large pinch of salt and carry out your own due diligence. Everyone that posts have their own agenda, negative, or positive. All you have to do is check the posting history of certain posters here to see their irrationality and emotional behaviour.
I share the same belief as you and see Evgen as significantly undervalued. It goes without saying though, Evg is still a high risk, speculative buy. We cannot be too far from news with an update on Phase 2 trials and IND application must be close.
I have a few that I bought at under 1.8p as I hear news is due but reading the thread for the first time most seem negative, still a good risk/reward at this price I think.
.... next year. ?
The usual process would be to have a pre ind submission meeting with the FDA. Sulforaphane is naturally created within us so I doubt it will be rejected by fda on risk from chemistry, especially with the phase 1 trials of SFX01 completed and all the data available from evgen. Stalicla will need to agree the protocols for the trial. Once they submit the application its 30 days for fda response. The main issue imo is stalicla deciding to delay the STP2 trial to focus on STP1. But everything I have read says they expect to enter both trials this year.
I hold these bought around 8p. This is a toss of the coin job now. If Stalicla gain Investigational New Drug status with the FDA milestone payments are triggered and EVG receive monies. This might spur interest from other pharmas into SFX, and lead to other tie ups. If no approval from the FDA, Stalicla likely to drop the trial and EVG left with no collaborations or trials of substance, and worth zippo.
Interesting comment CJ39 I can see both sides of the argument but as you say if the market thinks the sp should be under 2p then it is!.
I’ve got to agree with King Alf. I don’t understand why anyone would be positive about this share unless they are ramping or trying to comfort themselves with this investment. This share was 20p five years ago and is now not much more than 1.5p and yet where is EVG at? They seem as far away as ever from getting SFX-01 to be commercialised to treat diseases/disorders. And when you’ve got only about £3m in cash and the only income being either a share placing and/or the Stalicla deal which we know so little about it’s a major problem.
Proinvestor, you write like one of these liberal lefties believing you are right in your summary of EVG but the share price just like the mess the Europe is in speaks volumes that you’re wrong. If EVG is such a great business and has so much potential please tell us why the share price is at the lowest it’s ever been. EVG could be a good share many years down the line but right now it’s clearly not.
I'm glad you find my post so interesting, you can try to discredit me but my share price prediction over the last 3 years speaks for itself. Can I ask, are you employed by Evgen to put down any dissenting voices. Is that what the new strategy is when they said they were working on plans to add to share holder value. Back in the early days money munch used the same tactic as yourself, drown out any negative posts with loads of long winded individual posts.
Keep polishing mate, you'll need plenty of elbow grease with this company.
*May as well just randomly type a number.
I do have a good chuckle reading your posting history though. It is full of the most ridiculous, uneducated nonsense, so I thank you for providing some light evening entertainment.
Your valuation of OBD was a gem.
“It's always difficult to get a true market value, but if we look at what we know
Analysts at Shore Capital said: “There are approximately 47 million men in the relevant 50-80 age range in the key US market and 25 million PSA tests per year, and a further 10 million men in the UK. The medical need for an improved test is clear.
I saw a video posted on here where the company stated the product would cost around £100 each.
57,000,000 x £100 = 5.7 billion.
Divide that by the share issue you're looking at £41 a share. Admittedly this is a very simple and quite frankly overly optimistic analysis, but it gives us some indication.”
This is not how you do valuations, not remotely. May as just randomly type a number. Oh dear.
Kingalf
It is Proinvestor, not overly hard to get someone's name correct.
Investors have differing time scales, long term investors do not care for short term fluctuations. There is a plethora of examples where a company's share price had dropped, and the shareholders have remained content in their holdings. The large tech companies all crashed hard during the dot com bubble. Look at the GFC and read what Buttet says.
Therefore, you cannot explicitly state that it was a ‘regrettable trade’ for Kight without knowing his long-term intentions. Secondly, long-term investors do not ‘trade’. But it is clear you’re not an investor, but a trader, and a rather poor one at that.
1. ‘I went long at 4.50p a few months ago, my punt was based almost solely on Kight holdings and nothing to do with the underlying product.’ You did no due diligence on Evgen, still have no real understanding of what they do, but think you know best? Oh dear.
2. You have tried to compare SFX-01 to sulforaphane you can buy on amazon. Products that have not been approved for medical use and are not as bio-available or stable as SFX-01.
3. You state that ‘there is nothing stopping any large pharmaceutical company using Sulforaphane to develop their own remedy’. This shows you have no idea about the patents, protection and the exclusivity pharmaceutical companies have when developing new compounds.
4. You have provided anecdotal evidence based on the fact that you know someone with autism. You have no scientific knowledge, no deep understanding of chemistry or pharmacology but you seem to believe that you know better than the scientist, who are experts in their field and at the cutting edge of medical science? The arrogance is astounding.
According to your logic anyone who have a relative that has suffered/suffering from a medical condition is more qualified regarding the success of possible future treatments? So, the entire pharmaceutical industry is going about drug development the wrong way? They should be asking relatives of patients what they should be doing and the compounds they should be researching. I'm sure you've shared this with big pharma and you're well on the way to becoming the world's first trillionaire?
5. You say my cash predictions are out of line, when the board have said cash runway till the end of 2024. You have been harping on about raises for the best part of the year. First it was a Q1 2024 raise, now it is Q2. Which is it?
You, like CJ, do barely any research or due diligence, have a poor understanding of pharmacology and the pharmaceutical industry. But you both believe you know more about the possibility of neurological disorder treatments than the doctors who have sent their lives dedicated to it. The delusion is unreal.
You have been burnt here as your uneducated trade didn’t go the way you wanted, and you stay here deramping and spreading false information. Move on, it will likely be
I've seen some rather daft posts on her over the last few years, this one tops them all.
"Multiple times I've seen references that Kight will be dissatisfied and wishing he had never bought his shares. To this point I would say that none of us knows Kight personally and so cannot suggest how he may or may not feel about his Evgen investment"
He bought in at around 7p and the price is now 1.6p. You really do not have to know Kight personally to know that this is a regrettable trade, arguing differently just highlights your ramping status.
Your cash projection are also way out of line, the bods themselves have said they will run out of funds by the end of 2024, how can you possibly think they'll still have 3m by September 2024.
You stay away for a few weeks and you suddenly have new rampers coming on board trying to polish a T- - d
Cont.
Evgen are a small, clinical stage bio-pharma. I honestly don't know what you were expecting with regards to funding and cash runway. When you compare Evgen to its peers, it is well funded. It is extremely common for Aim listed companies to raise every year, or multiple times a year. Evgen last raised in March 2021, almost three years ago. I don't believe the bod would attempt a raise a this share price and at this point. Any raise would require shareholder approval and I don't see them getting under the current circumstances.
The only way I would see a raise be proposed in 2024 by the bod would be if one of the below scenarios played out:
1. Stalicla milestone payments delayed into 2025
2. Stailicla abandoning SFX-01
3. As part of a separate out-licencing deal for another target indication (cancer?) at the request of the partner to ensure sufficient cash runway
4. If during the course of the next year the share price see a large uplift
5. If there is interest to take a stake at a large premium to the prevailing share price
Situations 1 and 2 would be devastating for shareholders. However, depending on the environment, carrying out a raise as a result of situations 3-5 could be in the best interest of shareholders.
So no, a share placement at this price does not guarantee investor will not be able to profit, if it is carried out for the right reasons. Anyone who thinks buying shares in a small cap, clinical stage bio phara is not high risk needs to assess their investing strategy. Buying such companies is perfectly reasonable in a well balance portfolio, keeping your asset allocation percentage in said companies low. I do not see it as a problem being high risk, it only becomes an issue if you fail to comprehend the risky nature or invest too heavy where-by you cannot afford to stomach the potential loss.
I never stated that you wanted to buy in cheaper, only that it was clear that you couldn’t stomach the loss. In hindsight you probably should have not invested here and should have carried out better due diligence. No company can guarantee they will have income or be profitable.
I, like most investors in Evgen, am sat on a paper loss. However, I am currently unworried about my investment here. The entire market has been in a downwards trend recently, but I’m confident that we will hear good news from Evgen in due course.
CJ
With regards to Juvenescence it is impossible to know exactly the reasoning behind them giving back the licence to SFX-01. However, if you take a look at their website, which has been recently updated, it appears that have a change of business direction. Their pipeline of drugs all appear to be pre-clinical and their road map dates from 2023. This suggests that they have shifted towards more traditional pharmaceutical drug development as opposed to the nutritional approach. In fact, trawling their website, there is little information on the nutritional side, of which they held the license for SFX-01. I do not believe they handed back the license because SFX-01 was ineffective, or unsafe, but because it does not fit within their new direction after their re-organisation and re-prioritisation.
Yes, Evgens aim is to partner with large pharma companies, as is the norm for small bio-pharma. Trials are extremely expensive and it is not unusual for phase 2 and 3 trials for oncology drugs (which is one area SFX-01 is attempting to target) to run into the tens of millions of pounds. Due to the large costs involved, small phara companies often cannot afford the up-front costs so partnerships are a great way to source the funding - hence the importance of Stalicla funding the entirety of the clinical development costs for neurodevelopmental disorders. On the flip-side and due to the large costs involve and fairly low chance of success, the partnering company needs to carry out vast amounts of due diligence and this is why partnership deals move so slowly.
The delay in the Stalicla deal is disappointing, but delays are not uncommon during the complexities of getting new drugs to market and in this instance it is entirely out of Evgens hands. They had to state that 'up to' $5.5M in milestones is 'expected' in 2024 as it cannot be guaranteed that the payments will come to fruition, even if the bod is almost certain they will. I would say it is far more probable that Evgen will receive full $5.5M before the end of 2024, and as such a fund raise at this time would not be required.
Stalicla Announcements:
November 23, 2023
Advancing Neuroscience: Pioneering research on Dementia
We are thrilled to share the exciting news that our latest review article: 'Re-Addressing Dementia by Network Medicine and Mechanism-Based Molecular Endotypes,' is now freely available at the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease.
This collaborative effort reflects the dedication of our team and underscores our commitment to advancing the field of neuroscience and contributing to the ongoing discourse surrounding precision medicine in not only neurodevelopmental disorders but also in neurodegenerative disorders.
https://stalicla.com/news/press/stalicla-advancing-neuroscience
I see the Firefly Nuroscience Nasdaq listed merger as perhaps a signal of much bigger things ahead for Firefly, Stalicla and Evgen...
Successful Sulforaphane ASD trials then onto Alzheimer's Disease trials...
'Beneficial Effects of Sulforaphane Treatment in Alzheimer's Disease May Be Mediated through Reduced HDAC1/3 and Increased P75NTR Expression'
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5410605/
Seems like an obvious path to me...
Pro investor, I still stick with my comments that SFX-01 has potential, although my confidence has waned somewhat in the last six months, for example why did Juvenesense pull their plug on EVG? My problem with this share is that despite years of work already the company appears to be so far away from securing any commercial deals to see money streaming in. They have said themselves they are hoping to find larger pharmas to form partnerships with to do clinical trials but no news of that happening this year. .
Look at the Stalicla deal, 13 months down the line and only $500k received so far. There is such a cloud of uncertainty of when next payments will be received, originally it was supposed to be by the end of 2023.
My whole problem with EVG is that only has such short term funding. Even if they get $5.5m from Stalicla that will only last one year. A share dilution at this share price wipes out any chance anyone can make money from investing here and given you agree it’s a high risk investment that is a massive problem.
I am not deramping looking to buy in cheaper. I would only buy in if there was news of some great deal with a guaranteed income stream.
The first link is more interesting imo given it's talking about Firefly's BNA platform being used in the upcoming STP1 and STP2 (SFX-01) phase 2 trials, which could suggest further refinement of phenotype subgroups within the patient group already identified by DEPI. It's clearly going to be an interesting and perhaps complex trial.
Geneva, Switzerland – 27 March 2023, STALICLA SA and Firefly Neuroscience today announced a partnership to further validate EEG-based biomarkers in biologically enriched subgroups of patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).
https://stalicla.com/news/press/firefly-neuroscience partnership was announced
I thought I'd see what Firefly were up to and they've been busy:
WaveDancer Announces Merger Agreement with Firefly Neuroscience
16 Nov:
Merger to create NASDAQ-listed, commercial-stage AI-Enabled medical technology company focused on bringing FDA-cleared Brain Network Analytics platform to NASDAQ Capital Markets
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/11/16/2781725/0/en/WaveDancer-Announces-Merger-Agreement-with-Firefly-Neuroscience.html
Interesting move... ?
Cont:
Some of your comments that prove your comments are poorly researched and should be taken with a large pinch of salt:
“Imagine if kingalf was Einstein’s mate, he’d say don’t bother with E=MC2, it’s not going to work, invent a board game or something instead.” and ironically after you sold you posted “my neighbour is autistic, I can’t imagine a broccoli tablet would cure him either.” - So initially you accepted the research published by the company, but now your ‘belief’ is more notable that the actual science after you sold? Interesting.
“Do you think Stalicla thought lets give SFX-01 a go for the fun of it, we’ve got no idea what this white tablet does but we’ll pay them $500,000 up front and $5m once phase 1 is completed to see if it does anything? The chemical compounds of the drug were identified to benefit their primary drug. You seem to think these scientists are a bunch of wallies who just try things for the fun of it.” - You should ask yourself this question now CJ.
“Decent cash runway? They had £5.0m as at 31/03/2023. They posted a £4m loss in the year ending 31/03/2023. If they burn through money at the same rate they will run out of cash by the end of May 2024.” followed by “But the cash reserves are better than I expected. I expected about £3m left in cash by end of September. It looks hopeful that a share placing can be averted next year” - So the bods expectations of cash runway are more accurate, CJ from the LSE BB? Who would have thought that!
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion and both positive and negative discussions are important on these boards, however, it is far more fruitful if you kept to the facts.