Member Info for CJ39

Don’t sell out too soon here. This was over £11 a share a year ago and things are looking a lot more promising recently, it simply has to get past £8 this month.

Monday marked 7 months since TCF/EVG issued the dispute notice to Stalicla. Do you think it’s acceptable that they have not updated shareholders about what is going on here? After all it’s the shareholders who own and fund the company.

The board here believed that they fulfilled the criteria for the $500k milestone payment over a year ago now. After almost two years since the deal was signed only $500k of the $163m has been received. I do wonder how legitimate this deal really is, it does not seem like Stalicla could ever afford to pay $163m plus royalties and why would they when surely they could just buy TCF out if they wanted SFX-01? The market cap here is currently £3m. I personally feel like the only possible positive outcome here now is if Stalicla try to buy out TCF, it could well happen if SFX-01 is deemed effective to their projects.

I do feel like people who are invested here have been really unlucky. This share looked so promising two years ago, they signed a deal worth $163m, they had £10m in the bank and advised they would receive $6m by end of 2023. They had the Juvenesense deal. They had many workstreams for SFX-01. They were trying to sign up more deals for SFX-01 and were trying to get big pharmas to trial SFX-01 for them.

Absolutely everything has gone against them. I remember saying I wish I could see into the future to see how this share pans out, I never expected this two years ago. I hope something positive happens over the coming months but with money running out it’s starting to look very concerning here.

This is a nuisance I recently sold here at 640p but I just knew this had the potential to increase significantly from here. I think this can recover to 800p quickly, it’s undervalued.

I had a feeling I’d regret selling these at 161p.

I had a buy order set at 46p so never got in. But buying in at 50p would see a 33% profit already. Personally not interested in buying in here until I see the half year results.

It probably wasn’t a million but I do remember in 2023 the loss for the year was over £4m and was significantly higher and they did state this was due to:

The increase in operating loss compared with 2022 reflects escalation of manufacturing activity and commencement and completion of the clinical work in the Phase I/Ib trial, less £442k in revenue from the Stalicla deal.

As for the shelf life of the tablets, I can’t find that but most medications I’ve used have a shelf life of 24 months. But I’m only making an assumption on that.

I found this in full year results June 2023:

MANUFACTURING PROGRAMME

Following a competitive process, a new supplier of the key intermediate material for the synthesis of SFX-01 was contracted. The new manufacturer has extensive facilities and capabilities. Circa 25kg of product has been successfully manufactured in good time and at a competitive price. A further 25kg is expected in H2. This will be sufficient for clinical requirements in the foreseeable future.

That’s 50kg of SFX-01. 50kg = 50,000 grams.

There are 1000 mg = 1 gram. Therefore they have 50 million mgs of product. The tablets are usually about 50mg based on most medication. Therefore 50m mg divided by 50 mg tablets = 1m tablets.

What is incorrect about that?

DS, just point out one of the things I said that is incorrect and I will try find the information to back up my point.

Good results as usual. Also surprised to see this down this morning, especially with the FTSE 100 index up.

I’m not currently invested, the reason being I’ve been caught out many times buying Aviva when it’s trading at the higher end of its range. And with the FTSE100 index trading so high I’m reluctant to buy in, it always seems to get knocked back down due to some global event. It’s only last September this was at 365p and was below 440p for a whole year. Never trust the share price here but looking for a favourable entry point. This is not favourable right now

Good question about is this new company they paid a million pounds for (correct me if I’m wrong there) going to generate any income. I’m not sure I’ve read about any income stream. It was obvious they bought this as they had run out of work on SFX-01, you don’t hear much about that any more. Didn’t they produce millions of tablets of it? They’ll be out of date soon. I think Huw had a stake in this company TCF bought, if he did he’ll be enjoying his windfall.

Friday gone marked 6 months since the board issued the dispute notice to Stalicla with regards to missing milestone payment and clarification on payments of the $5m due to be paid when this goes into phase 2. The only update on this was one line written in the year end results. I think we all agree that this deal with Stalicla is over before it really even began. I only lost £3500 on this share, i know it’s not much compared to some but £3500 in £10 notes would be very nice. Commiserations to those who also lost money due to this deal.

I really believed this share was going to set me up nicely when I bought in just after the Stalicla deal was announced in Oct 2022. I had renewed hope 6 months ago when EVG issued a dispute notice to Stalicla about the missing $500k payment. Now I think this share is completely done, I don’t see any income at all between now and next Spring when it looks like the money will run out.

If you’re holding here I would recommend just holding out as I’m guessing most people are down so much that it’s not worth selling now.

I agree with LWHL, it’s impossible to tell. I’ve seen share prices rise significantly in the past on shares when they are recording heavy losses and carrying significant debt, it made no sense to me. This share has increased significantly in the past since the William Hill acquisition, so it could definitely happen again. Personally for me I don’t want to invest here until I know things are improving. They made a loss of over £50m last year and the net debt increased. Not sure how they can find this extra £50m a year to stop the losses and start reducing the debt. A first half year profits warning just adds to the desperate situation Evoke are currently in. Definitely one to watch at present.

I’ve set a buy order at 46p but have no idea if this will reach that or whether it will go lower. For me it seems pointless buying right now, we’ve already had a profits warning for first six months, we know the company has over £1,700,000,000 of debt and the interest on this debt is swallowing profits and we aren’t going to get full year results for another 8 months.

For me it’s such a shame that the board made the catastrophic decision to acquire William Hill minus its American arm of the business for an eye watering £2bn, it was no way worth anything like that. It felt like the Glazers buying Man Utd even though they couldn’t afford it, but they used the profits of the club to pay off the debt and it worked. But William hill will take decades to make £2bn plus interest.

Evoke recorded a £56m loss last year, it’s a huge amount of extra money and cost cutting to find to stop the losses.

It may seem a good buy in price at 57p and if Evoke turn things around it will be but for me it feels like the share price should only recover once there are signs that Evoke are breaking even after paying off debt and interest repayments.

What a shame the board saddled the company with this enormous debt. They were making tens of millions of pounds profit as they were each year, they should have aimed to grow by improving their sportsbook, marketing, etc.

I was going to write earlier in the week but didn’t have time. The share price made it past the mythical £5 mark this week but it was hard to have much confidence it would maintain that level or rise further. Aviva was always trading between 360p and 470p for years, bouncing between the two. It’s only last autumn we were still at 360p and for a whole year below 440p, despite the company performing well. Lots of us felt the share price was unfair at 360p and few people had confidence it would improve much.

The results last year were good and the FTSE100 index has been soaring so it has been no surprise the share price has traded between 460p and 500p but can you really have confidence buying at £5 that it will rise further or stay at that level?

I’m not currently invested here, I’m watching a few shares waiting for the right price. It’s hard though with the FTSE trading so high, if that was to fall back it would take prices down with it. But I’d buy back in here if it could drop to around 440p.

A lot of big sells today. Someone knows something.

I’ve set my buy order at 46p.

LWHL, fancy seeing you here. We both share the same opinion on TCF. Interesting share is Evoke. I love betting company’s shares, I usually dip in and out of Flutter but that’s been trading high for a while. I am watching this one closely, trying to work out what will be its lowest share price. I don’t think this is it. They have a lot of problems and having some very tough times, it would not surprise me to see this go quite a bit lower but you never know with shares.

I managed to make quite a bit on William Hill when it fell down to 29p but I had bought a new car and kitchen just months before and used most of my savings. If only I had pumped that money into William Hill I would have made a fortune. Still kick myself to this day I couldn’t capitalise on that.

I find it impossible to predict the share price here. Last year this reached 130p a share despite the same issues as now at half the price. It really is so hard to value this share. Evoke have debt of £1,718,000,000 and the interest on this debt is crippling them. Between the end of year results for 2022 and 2023, their net financial position worsened by £24m. They are in a lot of financial trouble. For me it’s one just to watch, if they can turn things around and start making profits it is one I’ll want to invest in.