Member Info for CJ39

It does seem like the delay so late in the day before results is due to a significant development - either with a proposed takeover offer from Bally's being taken off the table, a firm offer being received by Bally's or a new interested party declaring their interest.

I can understand people selling large holdings, spooked that the delay is due to bad news but I think those large sells was just that - spooked investors. It was interesting to see the share price rise in the final hour despite sells far outweighing buys but I do believe Bally's desperately want Evoke, they seem very ambitious and want to grow significantly in Europe and have a history of acquiring distressed gambling companies. Evoke offers the perfect opportunity, I don't believe for a second that they are losing interest. Bally's paid Nottingham Forest £8m to be their shirt sponsor for one season only, would they do that just to promote their casino and bingo businesses? The people who watch football are more likely to be interested in sports betting.

I don't believe the year end results are going to change anything, the results appear in line with expectations, the profit before interest and tax will be impressive but the finance costs will be huge and end up with losses for the year, I think we all know that is going to happen. I believe there is still value here in Evoke and I am definitely not selling out at 41 pence!

Wisdom, what’s your average share price here? It’s certainly easy in hindsight, I wish I went all in at 20p knowing I could have doubled my savings (minus CGT). I hold 40,000 shares at an average price of 24.1p so I know I’m in a fortunate position but this is the most positive position Evoke has been in for quite a while. I am so pleased with the Strategy Review, we need expertise to determine what Evoke’s best course of action is, having the two financial advisors on board now at this critical moment is a huge bonus. I still believe Evoke can turn this around but we’ll find out from the strategy review if the experts believe it can happen or not. If it’s not possible then the sale is the best alternative and it sounds very promising to me. Why would Bally’s sponsor Nottingham Forest when they have so little involvement in the UK betting sector? They clearly want to enter the UK market, I think they are desperate to get Evoke, it’s a bargain for them. It’s just a shame we don’t have another interested party involved to push the price up.

But that’s never going to happen Jepson as everyone would sell out. No one is going to buy in at 48p if there is an offer of 50p looming. There is still risk here. Also the offer isn’t cash it’s shares in Bally’s which is not as appealing as cash.

Wisdom, if I was you I would definitely sell my holding in this share. I know if I felt like you do I’d be selling up. Trust your instinct.

I wouldn’t be concerned by a one off £100k sale, the seller may have bought in at 20p - 25p and taking the profits. If there are problems with the deal there would be a lot more activity.

The guy from Bally’s being interviewed seemed very keen on acquiring Evoke and to enter the UK and European sectors. Whilst Financial Times seemed to think there is scope for Evoke to get a higher price.

Even if the offer does not materialise we still have the strategy review which I remain hopeful can help find a way for Evoke to turn things around. I’m feeling confident still holding this share.

People wrongly seem to think it’s accept this offer or go bust. At this point we do not know if thats the reality. If I was paying my mortgage back at £2000 a month I’d be financially crippled and couldn’t manage to pay it back but if I renegotiated my mortgage to pay back £1000 a month for a lot longer I would be just fine. Does anyone know if that’s not an option because I haven’t read such a thing.

Newbie, I definitely am not saying this offer is fine but I said it’s better than no offer. It will firstly protect the share price for the time being and it gives Evoke a further option. If Evoke received no offers then it would have no option but to continue. You know where I stand on this, I want Evoke to turn this around themselves if it’s possible to refinance the debt and streamline the business further.

I am really pleased that Evoke are still working with their two financial advisors, their help in determining the best course of action is invaluable.

Not sure why anyone would sell out at 40p today. This offer gives Evoke further options, I only want them to accept a takeover offer as a last resort if they can’t refinance the debt. I would also like to think they would haggle with the price rather than take their first offer.

Well my take on this is that I would have liked the offer to be 70p minimum however it’s better than no offer and it does give Evoke clear options. If they and the two financial advisors think Evoke can turn this around by streamlining the business, refinancing the debt, then they absolutely must not accept this offer. On the other hand if they believe they cannot turn it around then great we can sell up and cash out, albeit at less than what we had hoped for but it’s better than losing all our money.

Will be interesting to see what price it opens up at tomorrow. I am guessing around 45p and it should increase in the morning towards 50p.

I think 75p seems a realistic takeover offer if they really want Evoke. It would make sense for them to acquire Evoke, I see that they are Nottingham Forest's shirt sponsor and obviously want to tap into the UK market far more.

PhotoAlbum… that’s a fair comment if you assume I was being serious.

Newbie, I think it may be worth you considering selling out too, it’s not good for your mental health being so on edge by this.

May be this is too big for you so early in your investing journey. This is big boys stuff, you’re dining at the top table discussing shares with Chambersiain and I, maybe it would be better to watch and learn and ask questions along the way?

Chambersiain, Ironshield and I all believe in this share is going to come good but lots believe it won’t. My advice is do what you believe is going to happen. If you don’t believe this is going to come good you should sell out. If you believe it’s going to turn around then hold or buy more. Trust your instinct.

I agree with chambersiain. Of course it is frustrating that the share price has dropped in the last week again from 38p to 32p, had we known what was going to happen we could have made a good amount of money by selling out and then buying back in. However last week when it reached 38p there was a lot of speculation that a takeover offer had been received and no one is going to sell out at that point but within a few hours it had dropped 10% and no one at that time knew why. But we now know it increased a lot simply due to Ironshield buying 27m shares.

The drawback seems inevitable therefore because nothing has changed from when it was at 25p. The share price here is only going to move on from these levels once we have the outcome of the strategy review and year end results.

It really is pointless dwelling on the share price before then, it is irrelevant what the share price is right now unless you are here simply to try and make short term gains from the ups and down because if you are holding medium or long term then you’re not going to sell out even if it reached 45p.

I don’t think you should be so negative Newbie. Evoke aren’t in a great place for sure, hence why the share price has gone from £4.50 in Sept 2021 to as low as 19p in recent months. I think the year end results will have positives in terms of excellent revenue and profit before interest and tax but it is inevitable that they will record a loss due to the size of the current debt repayments. The strategy review should be positive. Evoke have worked with two world class financial advisory companies over a number of months to try and find the best way forward. You cannot tell me that two leading financial advisors cannot find a solution to a company with assets worth approx. £2bn who are making hundreds of millions of pounds before interest and tax each year. This strategy review was vital and a very smart move.

If I was you Newbie I’d just relax, lets see where this goes once news is released. As chambersiain has also said – you should have some confidence that things are going to turn around as Ironshield have bought an enormous amount of shares who specialise in making money from distressed companies who they believe can be turned around.

If Ironshield call it right here, which I really hope they have done, they would definitely be worth following in future to see what shares they believe have a lot of value in similar distressed companies. They seem to have a good track record.

Newbie, offers are always welcome for Evoke, that can only be a positive and raise the share price but I would only want Evoke to consider any offers which are too good to turn down. I’d be extremely disappointed if they considered an offer of something rubbish like 60p a share.

The share price this evening is at 32p with a market cap of £144m. That would imply the value of Evoke is the £1.81bn debt plus £144m, just short of £2bn. But what if Evoke re-finance the debt to affordable levels and start reducing the debt from profits made? Over the last 18 months reported, Evoke have made £245m after all costs and tax but before finance costs, they can afford to repay this debt, no doubts about it. If Evoke can pay the debt off at an affordable level, streamline the business further from shop closures and any other savings they can find, maybe also look to be more creative with their marketing which they spent £268m on last year and try soften the blow of the new taxes, what could the potential value of Evoke be worth if they are on course to clear the debt? If the debt reduces the market cap has to increase.

Entain have twice as much debt as Evoke but because they can afford it there is no problem, their market cap is £3.7bn and yet their revenue is just 3 times more than Evoke. Entain’s market cap is 25 times that of Evoke. People will argue Entain has a far broader operations globally which is true but the American market has become extremely challenging whilst European countries are also raising the tax on gambling companies significantly as all European countries are skint.

Back in September 2021 Evoke had a share price of £4.50 per share and a market cap of £2 billion. I believe Evoke can finance this debt and eventually be worth at least £1.5bn again. £1.5bn market cap would be £3.33 a share. Hence why I want Evoke to turn the business around themselves rather than take a poor 70p a share takeover offer.

The fact Ironshield have analysed Evoke extensively and bought 27m shares last week shows that professionals believe Evoke can turn this around. They wouldn’t invest over £6m in Evoke shares if they think this is doomed.

Well that was nice to see Ironside Capital Management purchase 27 million shares in Evoke last week, hence the rise in share price as opposed to rumoured takeover talks. This is encouraging as Ironshield state that they focus exclusively on European corporate credit, seeking attractive risk-adjusted returns through disciplined research and deep capital structure expertise.

We seek to generate absolute returns through the construction of a portfolio of extensively researched fundamental value and restructuring opportunities.

The investment process focuses on short to medium term events which catalyse value realisation. It is a bottom-up multi-stage fundamental analysis approach with continuous re-assessments of position level risk/reward calculations and the impact of macro risk factors. The team is one of the most experienced European Distressed teams in Europe, with a multi-year track record of successful collaboration.

This is exactly the sort of the company we wanted to see investing in Evoke, they will have done a lot of analysis on Evoke’s finances and situation and clearly believe Evoke will come good and that this is am attractive investment. This just adds further to my confidence in this share.

Sad for those who lost their jobs but shows the state of our high streets, government and councils do nothing to help businesses. But it’s good news for Evoke, cutting out loss making shops effectively increases profits.

Sorry Newbie, looks like you were right that there was something happening today, I wasn’t concerned at all when it was 35p after last week’s sharp rise but it was concerning this afternoon when it kept dropping. However, it did recover somewhat to end the day above 34p which is slightly re-assuring. How does one interpret that? Was the drop due to panic selling at seeing the share price fall? Was it due to leaked news that wasn’t positive? Either way, the bounce suggested that the news isn’t as bad as it was made out to be. There haven’t been any large sells showing after hours which is also reassuring. If it really was bad news I'd expect to see some large sells which may have triggered the share price fall.

Interesting about shops opening later tomorrow, I saw someone write that on Friday. That suggests that staff are going to be informed of some significant news which will impact them and if so it sounds like a RNS will be released in the morning. It is a concern that the share price dropped quite a bit today if there is news tomorrow, if it was positive news that had been leaked it would have surely increased the share price today. But what can we do as investors when we have no information what is going on, especially after last week’s sharp rise? You would need a crystal ball to make the correct decision in terms of hold, buy more or sell.

But what I would say is that if a buyer has pulled out it should not be seen as the end of the world. If you want our shares to make the most returns for you then it has far more potential if Evoke resist a takeover and continue to operate with all their assets. This is a fantastic business, they have two brilliant assets in 888 and WMH. They have made £245m profit after all operating costs and tax but before finance costs in the last 18 months. I want them to re-finance this debt, pay less each year but over more years so that the debt becomes manageable. If they reduce the debt by using their profits it will keep increasing the value of the company and share price. They can afford to pay this debt off with profits like that. Of course these profits will be hit by the changes in April but they can make changes to soften the blow.

We will know more tomorrow, fingers crossed it is not bad news. I still really believe in Evoke, they have options and working with two top financial advisory companies in Morgan Stanley and Rothschild & Co you’d really like to think they can work out the best solution to make this succeed.

Well I think if there was bad news it would drop sharply, not by 2p.

You don’t want to get too concerned by short term drops in the share price, it’s going to happen, it simply has to, if share prices only went up or stayed the same then share prices would be all thousands of pounds per share. You need to just believe in your decision and stick to it regardless of rises and falls. I believe in this share totally and it’s only after news of what’s happening going forwards that the share price will really adjust and at that point I’ll look at whether I buy more, hold or sell. I’m very happy with my investment here.

You are reading far too much into the fall in the share price this morning Newbie. We went up 33% last week, it’s not going to go up in a straight line, it will have fall backs which will make some people sell out but it will keep rising. I gave the share some thought over the weekend. I bought in at an average of 24p so I was over 50% in profit but no way am I selling this. I truly believe this share can only go one way - up!

I still think the board would be crazy to accept any offer. They made £293m profit before finance costs and tax over the previous recorded 18 months. This is a money making machine of a company, all they need to do is refinance the debt so it’s affordable to pay back.

If any potential buyer can pay off the debt they’ll have a fantastic business here which will pay for itself in probably 15 -20 years.

I had doubts about the UK betting industry but I think this is the place to be. The American betting industry has become hugely challenging with predictions markets taking off whilst the rest of Europe are also increasing gambling taxes as everyone is so skint.

I bought in at an average of 24.5p so this is doing well for me but it still seems crazy cheap. A market cap of £159m for a company with assets of somewhere around £1.75bn - £2bn and making hundreds of millions before interest and tax.

The board did say they want to get value for shareholders so if they do sell you can’t see them accepting anything like the current share price, it would have to be at least double this.