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Is that Sonangol's friends?
Or were Sonangol asked (nicely) by Corcel to bring out a progress update on the well testing late in the day and to make it a very confusing and poor update 'so their friends could get in cheap'.
Some bonkers posts and theories here.
Morning Sienna,
I even said yesterday with the declining volumes of trading on the run up to Easter I wasn't expecting an update until next Tuesday. Imo they should have held off as the RNS is inconclusive. It suggests they need an engineering solution to test the most productive zones in the well so testing is still ongoing. They haven't said specifically if these engineering solutions include a sidetrack, if it were mechanical failure or a well integrity issue. RNS is very vague, but it sounds as if there are still untested zones down there for whatever reason.
They currently have £9m in undrawn notes and are in the process of selling those Ni assets so still remains cheap in my view currently. The fact that they're still planning on well completion suggests its far from over yet and the market sure does like to overreact at times. They should have really held back under the cover of the operator until they had a clearer update of what is going on.
Regards,
Ed.
And maybe avarage down. this is delay, not suspend or burst or administration.
Morning Ed,
It was a shock to that kind of RNS for sure, no one saw that coming .
Considering work is ongoing and they still have to test the other well, it seems an overreaction to me.
The market cap is now only £8mill .
Thanks Nige
Certainly not good news.
Yeah maybe they released the RNS at 4pm on Wednesday night, because it is actually good news for the market, and everything is right on track, and they are just allowing all their friends to get in on the cheap before this rockets to 36p.
Gla.
Ed.
Good to see you comment this morning.
A number on Telegram have commented on the bad timing of the Rns . A little under 30 mins from close of trading. Also like you said they should have expanded more on operations. But a number said it was oversold yesterday. Its unfortunately another wait when most of us expected quick movement during 1st quarter. I topped up just after 8.00. Only 100000 at 0.48p. Im gonna see if they reported it as a sale of buy.
Keep posting please.
Where's the $10m come from? It does not cost $10m to drill a well.
Goodness me I wasn't expecting a late RNS, have read it several times today so far. Its a hard one to interpret for sure. They say they're having difficulty flowing TO-14 yet are competing the well not abandoning it? They continue to test the most productive zones, the well testing continues and they haven't started testing TO-13 yet, weather delays etc. They're also progressing the engineering work too. As well they retain their position on the recoverable from the field. Its just a pity they didn't mention how much of the well had been tested and how many of the "productive zones" remain untested. It leaves more questions than answers compared to prebivous releases. But reading it several times suggest everything is still ongoing at both wells.
Regards,
Ed.
Yeah, and someone asked the question a while ago about the costs of getting into production as outlined in the Presentation. The plan was for 14 wells at a total cost of $ 28 Million - was that net to CRCL or the total costs? I noticed that neither the 'resident expert' (who seems to have gone missing all of a sudden) or anyone else bothered to answer such a stupid question. The answer however is that this is a cost net to CRCL with each well costing $10m. Not that it matters much unless they can get these wells to flow oil as production plans will be irrelevant.
"So the question is where are they going to get the money to pay for all this drilling and testing" You've just answered your own question.
I must say for somebody who's apparently being invested in here you don't know much.
Very disappointing RNS and it looks like the oil that was easy to extract has long gone.
Personally, I won't buy back in here unless they can get this oil to flow.
According to the Presentation these wells are costing up to $2M net to CRCL per well so they will have some serious cash to find. The EXT Loan Notes are the only source of funding at the moment and they are convertible at 0.8p which is probably going to be considerably higher than the share price. So the question is where are they going to get the money to pay for all this drilling and testing.
Perhaps written favourably to promote the ANGP licensing round. Now unable to get the TO-14 to flow due to weather, delays and engineering problems on site. They don't know yet how to get the well to flow and still looking to identify solutions.. basically tried everything they can so far, but not giving up just yet..
Good questions. Perhaps Ed might have some explanations which we can all understand.
Am I missing something, where is the oil, what changed from the 28th December when the following was published?
TO-14 drilling encountered high fractured Oolitic Limestones in the reservoir with good porosity values. Initial pressure readings support Corcel's predrill thesis that the reservoir has returned to its original pressure levels through active recharge of the system.
The TO-14 well found no presence of water during drilling, despite the fact that the offset TO-4 well had been reported to have watered out by the end of its production life, further indicating that the field has fully re-equilibrated.
Overall, the drilling results for the TO-14 well were positive, with oil shows found throughout the Binga reservoir in alignment with the distribution seen in historic production wells in the Tobias field, confirming both moveable fluids and the ability to reactivate production in the field.
Therefore, the consortium is proceeding to testing of the TO-14 and then the TO-13 wells, with the objective of flowing the wells and then moving on to the next phase focused on designing the early production system.
Fair comment Sarah....
Bought on the drop... will probably add if they drop it more and then we'll likely see a lot of buyers and then the same point made over and over: this wasn't an rns of note, except to crash the price on little trading and to give interested parties a cheap in.
that's what i'm banking on, anyhow.
And you will see at least one dip and one spike.
whatever the bottom price is going to be here, there will be new buyers. there will also be existing holders who feel they've been burnt by the share/BoD/predicitions/lies!
all i can say is, winners don't win all the time and it's the same for losers. obviously, at either end there a buyout and admin. but between those two points there's going to be opportunies from every disaster. it's hard t take small profits when you really, really want/believe/trust those that 'know' more than you who say there's much mor to come.
only real lesson to learn is to cut losses as soon as possible, at the risk of missing on a bounce and take money off the table and sit on it while you work out what's actually going on!
great when it works, miserable when it doesn't!
but it's not the end... it's not a race... the horses just keep going round and around.
gla.
You can take the update in different ways: 1) They note TO-14 is still being tested and; 2) They are still exploring creative solutions to carry out a flow test from drill sites. 3) They are still trying to find ways to get the oil out of the ground.
Its fair to say I am generally bullish given this share revived from 0.25 to 1.4 before the recent fall back. I would like us to receive good news. The bod have a 20% stake in the business they want good news as well. It is hard to sit through days like today, it really could not have been predicted. I am bullish but also a pessimist which is why I am no where near all in. Even so, I would like some more positive news. Given where we are that will make a big difference.
Not great news and there was alot of negativity building. It does make you wonder if its all been a bit of a smoke and mirrors. For all I read that was good about Mr Karam , the comms could certainly be better.
Would love to hear from the resident experts and outlooks.
I only held a small amount but was hoping I could get a new car out of it. Now I have a decision to sack this off or just hang in there and write it off in a way.
First venture into AIM so maybe the lesson is if it seems to good to be true then it is.
Maybe just a small step back and plenty to be optimistic about still.
Watching with interest
The way of many explorers. Luckily I sold a load over 1 to 1.40p but I had a good freeroll and I dont think we will see anything like those prices for a good while.
Mkt cap of 10 million? Based on what? Just the start of the fall. 15p to 25p is on the way. Who wants to buy a no flow i Angola in these punishing small cap mkts. Lets hope for a bounce to 60p please!
It does beg the question why the Twitter PR has been in overdrive this last few days.
...........pattern of failure regarding Corcel. The bod pumping out an over optimistic picture again, only for it to fall flat on its face again¬ Won't be putting anymore in here, until the bod shpw the capacity to come up with tangible results.