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Been a while now for news have decided to sell on Thursday if nothing concrete turns up because although I might miss the prize I want to protect my savings and I think there is more than a possibility flow results are proving a problem anyway only 48hrs to wait
I’m not making any rash decisions, been here for over 2 years so will wait until the flo results get notified, then make a controlled decision.
GLA
TLM
Same as you Mike.
Sonangol wouldn’t even bother testing these wells if they didn’t have high confidence in them. Remember this is Sonangol’s flagship “return to onshore”for Angola project after divesting a ton of offshore assets (AET took some)..
They’ll release data when they release data .. I’m sure it won’t be too much longer.
Yes agreed Smkr. Sonangol is the biggest Oil Company in the whole of the African Continent.
They would not want to look stupid by spending a couple of months analysing stuff and then announce sorry nothing here !! would they- so just a question of time and patience and let the others sell if they are that desperate. GLA holders
I'm not saying there's nothing there to be found it's just how it all started with excitement with this new company outlook and now it's gone dead.
Morning Luke,
Well said, there won't be a company in Angola that knows more about Angolan oil and gas than Sonangol. The facts are all there in the drilling results for TO-13 and TO-14. If some don't want to wait for the results of the flow testing of these wells its each to their own. Sonangol didn't rush the drilling of these wells, so no surprise they're taking their time over testing too. Exciting times.
Regards,
Ed.
Morning Ed,
Hope you are well and looking forward to the Easter break.
I just wanted to ask you about possible scenarios for the flow rates, if you don’t mind.
If by chance the results were disappointing what would be the options?
We know there is plenty of oil down there and maybe even more Oil in place?
In that event would they try and stimulate the flow in some way, or would that not be economically possible?
Thanks Nige
Good morning Nige,
I'm good hope you are too! Yeah looking forward to the Easter break for sure, its always nice to get such a long break from the markets, unfortunately we are currently in the UK wet season it seems so it'll have to be indoor fun rather than outdoor fun. Hopefully we'll see some more spring and summer weather again soon. I hope everyone has a nice Easter break!
Well it all depends on what flow rates they get, one mans disappointment could be another man's gusher! Look at the oil price back in the 60's and 70's compared to where it is now. These wells were commercial back then:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262858/change-in-opec-crude-oil-prices-since-1960/
So for wells like this to be commercial they'll not need high flow rates at circa $85/bbl. The company recently described themselves as an E&P company and given the recent presentation then that's what I expect them to be. I'm still looking forward to a transformational year and beyond. Given the drilling results by CRCL and approved by the operator Sonangol that's what I'm still expecting. They should see better flow rates through modern completion and logging, but better still would come from horizontal completions so that is always an option as pointed out by CRCL.
2 mile horizontals and 20 plus stage frac are commercial at $85/bbl in the US and Canada etc so they'll have many options open to work on these redevelopments. They'll not need 2 mile horizontals nor frac on this field, I was just using an extreme example of what is commercial at $85/bbl (flow rate dependent of course). We know that the reservoir is highly fractured, we know that there is mobile oil down there which has returned to original pressure, its all in the RNS to date. So long horizontals or frac is like overkill on these wells imo, I'm still expecting them to flow naturally from these vertical wells. If they didn't flow it wouldn't take very long to find out, the recent presentation for 2024 flow rates would look very different and I doubt the company would be describing themselves as an E&P. I can understand that when a JV is planning a potential $140m development for FFD they may want to try a LPT to make sure oil saturation and pressure sustains flow and before committing to an EPS. Seems to me like that is what they're doing. When Sonangol gives the nod CRCL will update. I'm still eagerly awaiting that time, my guess now is likely after Easter.
Regards,
Ed.
Thanks Ed,
Yeah looking forward to the Easter break, whatever the weather we will try and spend sometime outdoors.
Great post as always, the board is extremely lucky to have someone with your knowledge to help us understand the technical side of it, so thank you for your input and the time you spend on here.
It would take me all day, to write your type of posts lol.
I just asked the question to cover all bases really, these flow tests seem to have taken a very long time, so hopefully all will be revealed soon?
The confidence shown by the company in the presentation and the way they now describe themselves hopefully bodes well with what is too come from the flow rates ? :-)
Thanks Nige
Cheers Ed, yes any doubters are free to go if they havent got any more patience. All the more cheap shares for the rest of us ! ha Cheers all
Ed
Thank you for posting. I really enjoy reading your posts just like many many others on here by the look of it.
Corcel still keep (re)tweeting about Tobias oil “export and transportation” and “highly fractured” and I am sure they would have kept quiet (a low profile) if preliminary results were bad as I’m sure they would know at least something by know unofficially.
N
Exactly my thoughts also, The Norseman,
Doesn't take long (testing wise) to report any disappointing flow results, otherwise it's wasting money and time which Sonangol would not contemplate I'd have thought.
Those Corcel tweets (almost ever other day) in highlighting the last presentation at a single page at a time (it's as if they are giving any investors a nod and a wink??? I could be reading it all wrong of course)
And it's a Thanks from me also Ed,
It's always interesting to read your viewpoints 👍
Hi guys,
You're welcome. I agree testing has been going on for around six weeks and the last RNS the company described themselves as a production company so its definitely looking positive. Sonangol as the operator sure will want the job done right, so they'll not waste cash just cause they have it. They'll also gather all the data they require for what could be a large project, multiple flow stations, many kms of pipe and even export buoy planned. So they need to get it right from the start, both these wells should provide plenty of data on how the field performs.
That's interesting that CRCL keep reminding folks through social media about what's going on (I'm not on twitter/X). With six weeks of testing you would think they would have a good idea about both these wells. Presentation does suggest that both wells will be produced in parallel so we could get an update on both soon. Agreed too that if things weren't progressing as per presentation they wouldn't keep advertising it. With trading volumes declining on the run up to Easter hopefully we'll get our momentum back again next Tuesday.
Regards,
Ed.
Many thanks again Ed, very-well said.
Thanks Ed,
Yeah it’s been a long wait.
it does feel a little nervy around the boards, so hopefully the company will update us very soon?
Do you think we may get updates on both wells close together?
Not sure how it works with moving equipment and stuff to the other well and how long the setting up takes?
Thanks Nige
guys ... exactly talk is cheap and one can write about the technicals and depths..etc etc ... but the market dos'nt like it and the share is falling.... 6 weeks plus and still no results ...come on whose codding who ... surely after this length of time with the wells be relatively shallow ...we should have results by now ...unless of co**** that the testing team have fallen asleep in the mid day sun ....
Fair comment Sarah....
Am I missing something, where is the oil, what changed from the 28th December when the following was published?
TO-14 drilling encountered high fractured Oolitic Limestones in the reservoir with good porosity values. Initial pressure readings support Corcel's predrill thesis that the reservoir has returned to its original pressure levels through active recharge of the system.
The TO-14 well found no presence of water during drilling, despite the fact that the offset TO-4 well had been reported to have watered out by the end of its production life, further indicating that the field has fully re-equilibrated.
Overall, the drilling results for the TO-14 well were positive, with oil shows found throughout the Binga reservoir in alignment with the distribution seen in historic production wells in the Tobias field, confirming both moveable fluids and the ability to reactivate production in the field.
Therefore, the consortium is proceeding to testing of the TO-14 and then the TO-13 wells, with the objective of flowing the wells and then moving on to the next phase focused on designing the early production system.
Good questions. Perhaps Ed might have some explanations which we can all understand.
Perhaps written favourably to promote the ANGP licensing round. Now unable to get the TO-14 to flow due to weather, delays and engineering problems on site. They don't know yet how to get the well to flow and still looking to identify solutions.. basically tried everything they can so far, but not giving up just yet..
The only guarantee here is that we will get weeks and weeks of complete silence.
You're here so I doubt that... and who's this we? You sold out.
There are a lot of very big sells going through as delayed trades - all in the millions - and a few buys going through but all in the low hundreds of thousands.
I do like watching those that have sold out, you see people for who they really are.
Dan, that’s quite an odd thing to post.
People sell / buy / trim down positions all the time, anyone selling still has a voice, in the same way that buyers do too.
Because you think everyone should buy and be happy with the latest RNS, and not have a negative view, doesn’t discount their opinion. We all have one.
People can turn bearish on a stock / the leadership team if they feel lied to, it doesn’t mean they should remain silent or always mention the positives on a company. It’s an open discussion board.
IMO the news is not good and those who want to lead others down the same path are often to blame for people losing their shirts.
If the RNS was positive and clear yesterday, I doubt you’d have angry investors here