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Harmonica, I expect the Oil price to be up tomorrow.
Sky News said the drones were attacking Israel around 1:30 -2:00 am Israel time so around 11:30pm UK time. They were well on their 9 hour way when you posted at 21:39 13th Apr. If Sky News are correct, and their times are not the most accurate I find, then the drones left Iran at c. 14:30 UK time to arrive near Israel c. 23:30 UK time.
Hey Mark, all good thanks, and hope the same for you.
Now that would be nice, I'm going to get in there early and give my Xmas 25 price hope of 777 then!
Hi Cong
I hope all's well with you. It is always a pleasure to see posts from you.
With the caveat that nothing is certain with the energy sector. I would certainly hope that BP share price starts with a 7 by year end 25.
Hey Mark, what you hoping for by end of 2025?
Hopefully Israel won't go full out and have restraint, if the kid dies though that may decide things. Let's hope nothing happens and tbh I'd rather oil just stay at 90 for now
..... a year or so. I hope by the end of 2025
Have a great Sunday all.
Mark
Good morning Redbluerhino, Darren Taylor & Howardzz
Redbluerhino - great comment and posts.
Isreal is a rogue state. Their disproportionate destruction of Gaza and their campaign of genocide in response to October 7th is testament to this.
The west's mealy-mouthed concern for the two million people in Gaza at the same time sending Isreal the bombs and bullets to kill the carry out their campaign is shameful and abhorrent. In this live situation nothing can be ruled out and all possibilities are possible. However, I do not see Isreal wanting a full scale conflict with Iran and Iran certainly does not want a full scale war with Isreal.
With the US election six months away, Biden will be telling Bibi any significant response that could escalate to an all out middle Eastern war and the consequences for the prices at pumps - and therefore his re-election - in the run up to that election is a red line for US support for Isreal. Biden has turned a blind eye to sanctioned Iranian oil 3mbpd being sold to help keep a lid on price and will not allow this to be jeopardised.
I
Isreal have achieved their aim in bombing the Iranian embassy. I agree with your opinion that focus is now off of Gaza and the political pressure is lowered on Bibi as Israeli unity in the face of attack will take precedence. This has already been achieved at no real cost - one child injured - I don't see any strategic advantage in a wider conflict for Isreal. Maybe Rafah campaign permission could possibly be a bargaining chip in this death game.
and so to oil, the market will be calculating all the possibilities and probabilities with 'buy the rumour sell the news' fear of the unknown being replaced with the known, I would not be surprised to see lower oil prices as s result when the oil market opens.
That said, I do see this situation as a short term side show as far as oil is concerned. I agree also with Darien's comment regarding the importance of Opec's 'management ' of supply and the resilience of demand that is set to grow into peak season as more influential in the medium to long term so any fall should soon be recovered going forward.
I would not be surprised to see $100pb+ before the end of 2025 once the election is over and limited global supply comes into focus. Prior to the election, possible releases from the strategic reserves in the US and possibly China will be used to depress price but will be temporary.
I guess I should mention BP !
I note some investors have recently sold. Enjoy your profits anyone who has decided to sell. It is fully understandable, following the repeated peaks and troughs experience from May'23, that concerns of a further repeat could be just around the corner. With previous selling opportunities around the peak 560s followed by 20% drops I can understand why some are selling and taking profits.
Personally I have no intention to sell any BP for the foreseeable until true value is achieved maybe in
Iran hold the upper hand here on oil price direction as they control the sea passage of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is what could and will cause a major oil spike.
I see this going higher than $100 .
Americans are talking about $120-130 already last night on CNBC, and Bloomberg.
Don’t want it to happen, but it could easily burst too.
Furthermore, if there is an Israeli response, it may warrant an Iranian response, at any point in time this may include limiting the freedom of navigation in the strait of Hormuz.
I think oil has already reacted in the way you describe. it shot up to $92, and now back to around $90, the longer term issues are to do with OPEC cutting production,
Understanding*
Mark - agree with the first part of your understand about the Iranian response being more of a symbolic response. However, I’m not sure how much the Israeli’s can be restrained in terms of their response (we’ve seen evidence of their rogue behaviours in Gaza contrary to American requests) - I also think that Israel sought this conflict to take the attention away from what is happening in Gaza and portray a wider conflict of the West vs Iran to relieve some of the pressures they are under from their allies.
Mark - but won't Israel want an excuse to attack Iran? That was the whole point of the Israeli attack on Damascus- to provoke Iran into war.
Morning all
This was a telegraphed attack. Iran advised the US hours before launching their attack and may it clear that their retaliation is now over. I expect a symbolic response from Israel if any at all.
Paradoxically, this huge telegraphed retaliation for the Israelis attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, that was planned to fail or cause limited damage to Israel, could see the price of oil down on Monday as the oil premium for the unknown is now known. If the Israelis response is token or none., the price of oil could be down monday. I don't see this action as the start of a regional war or $100pb
Have an interesting Sunday all.
Mark
I can't control the stupidity of the human race. I can't control the oil price. I can control what's in my portfolio.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
That's great then
World destruction versus a better oil price
Priorities
Oil price over $100 incoming
I think you have to take this as bullish for oil price - a destablised Middle East means only one thing for oil prices.
I thought the reaction from Iran would be a bit more muted rather than a direct strike. But it seems like they have taken an escalatory step and the oil price will follow upwards if missiles follow the drone strikes.
With news breaking that Iran has launched drones against Israel, will this cause the price of oil to go up further or is that priced in?
Apparently, these drones will take hours to get to their targets, so Israel will be ready.
Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13302327/MARKET-REPORT-BP-rises-reports-UAE-bid-energy-giant.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.251142991.834452962.1713039623-829466088.1679172563&_gl=1*1k0plny*_ga*ODI5NDY2MDg4LjE2NzkxNzI1NjM.*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTcxMzAzOTYxOC44Ny4xLjE3MTMwMzk2MjkuMC4wLjA.
Cheers aff. Nice one
Scooby
The cash is paid in a normal dealing account as well as a share dealing ISA account.
The interest is paid daily in both accounts.
Affmead, is that interest also paid with cash sitting in an isa account or only the usual share dealing account?
On Friday US oil majors drop 1-1.8% across the board.
Though suppose they gain on the geopolitical gibberish in Asia.
I have seeing the discount between US v UK oilies gain in the current quarter.
The discount on P/E to our counterparts id say by calculations has to be between 20-25% over the last couple of decades .
On a different but will have a direct impact is interest rates.
I can’t see interest rates being reduced thus yr at all, it’s far too risky on the inflation aspect.
Inflation will obviously pick up with lower rates, which we don’t want to happen, so believe me, rates are to stay this way for LONG period as we first knew.
The world has to pay for their mistakes.
Governments should never have reduced to zero, that was a dumb plan, but hey I don’t work for inept BoE or FEds who has this problem now.
It would have given governments tools to use further down line LIMITING thus bubble effect they have manifested, and profited from.
Iv still got my 2500 holding h3re, not adding to it until the next total collapse happens in markets.
Truth hurts, but we will have something happen when no one knows
Hl share ISA do the same, not 5%, maybe 3. Can't remember exact amounts