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Started: Hockerdo2, 18 Jun 2024 19:47
Last post: Hockerdo2, 18 Jun 2024 19:47
Has Henry ford started running the company?
no, after what happened, monitoring relationships is not the issue. Look are the company, focus on the company.. and then the company will grow (please let it grow). It is up to the LSE to monitor their business.
Just an opinion, what do wonderful people think?
85.33 $
Started: spights, 18 Jun 2024 15:43
Last post: spights, 18 Jun 2024 16:14
Chinese Refinery Runs Disappoint Again. Chinese refinery output slid 1.8% year-over-year in May to 14.25 million b/d, driven lower by maintenance overhauls and shaky refining margins, with throughput in 2024 to date staying flat compared to the 2023 average of 14.48 million b/d.
Tensions Fly High in West Africa. Niger has shut off oil exports via the 1,240-mile pipeline connecting it to Benin’s coast, having loaded only one cargo since its launch, after Benin arrested five Niger nationals for allegedly entering the Seme loading terminal under false pretenses.
US States Defy White House’s Decommissioning Rules. The states of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi sued the US government to block the Biden administration’s proposed rules that require offshore producers without sufficient reserves to provide some $7 billion in decommissioning funds.
Russia Becomes Europe’s Largest Gas Supplier Again. Overtaking the United States, Russia has become the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe despite having curbed pipeline deliveries to a trickle, accounting for 14% of the continent’s imports in May.
Serbia Makes U-Turn on Lithium Mine. According to media reports, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is readying to approve the development of Europe’s largest lithium mine at the Jadar site in the west of the country, two years after Belgrade called off Rio Tinto’s (ASX:RIO) megaproject.
Saudi Arabia Hunts for Mining Deals in Chile. Saudi Arabia’s mining minister Bandar al-Khorayef is expected to travel to Chile in July, as the Middle Eastern kingdom is nearing deals to source lithium abroad and potentially enter Chile’s mining sector.
Singapore Offers Rebates for Oil Refiners. As Singapore is preparing to launch its carbon tax scheme, with costs estimated at around $1 per barrel of crude or a quarter of current refining margins, the city-state is offering refiners rebates of up to 76% in 2024-2025 to remain competitive.
Chinese Solar Producers Beg for Government Intervention. Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have asked Beijing for immediate government intervention to halt a plunge in prices of solar cells and modules amidst rampant overcapacity, having already plunged 50% last year.
UAE Eyes Rapid LNG Growth. Abu Dhabi’s state oil firm ADNOC has taken a final investment decision on its 9.6 mtpa liquefaction terminal in Ruwais, having already signed three 15-year term supply deals with Germany’s SEFE and EnBW as well as China’s ENN Natural Gas.
Strikes Rattle Argentina’s Upstream Industry. Sending shockwaves across Argentina’s prolific Vaca Muerta shale play, the Latin American country’s oil union has called for strikes this week to demand higher salaries just as production in the country rose to multi-year highs of 680,000 b/d.
- Oil markets were eagerly anticipating the start of peak driving season in the summer, but gasoline demand so far has been mostly disappointing, with US consumption some 2% lower year-over-year.
- Asia has been the first continent where gasoline weakness led to refinery run cuts, as a glut of light distillate supply has pushed Singapore gasoline cracks below the $5 per barrel mark.
- While US gasoline cracks are notably higher than elsewhere, currently around $22 per barrel, the high US refinery utilization rates create a lot of downside for gasoline, especially as gasoline stocks are the highest since 2021 for this time of the year.
- The pressure on gasoline might increase further down the line as this year’s two main refinery newbuilds, Nigeria’s Dangote and Mexico’s Olmeca, are both delayed and will not start up in time for the summer season.
Market Movers
- US refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) agreed to sell its 25% stake in the Rockies Express Pipeline for some $1.28 billion including debt to privately owned Tallgrass Energy which owns the remaining 75% stake.
- Commodity trading giant Trafigura has agreed to pay a $55 million fine to settle charges of fraud and manipulation from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, having traded misappropriated Mexican gasoline.
- French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) sold its Brunei upstream business to Malaysian exploration firm Hibiscus Petroleum for $260 million, using those funds for further Namibia drilling.
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Oil prices have gradually recouped all their losses following the OPEC+ meeting and ICE Brent has silently moved back to $84-85 per barrel, without there being any notable change in fundamentals. Macroeconomics are starting to feel better, however, and should the U.S. Fed comments this week persuade the market that things will get better soon, the strength in oil could be maintained for longer.
Started: spights, 18 Jun 2024 07:07
Last post: Clued, 18 Jun 2024 12:18
Invstrat, what I'm looking forward to is Starmer's reaction when bigger oilies start leaving oil and gas production in the UK and even leave the UK as a tax resident !! SHEL is already selling one of their NS licences. Labour have a nasty arrogance and I hope they're brought down to size.
As suspected, he seems overwhelmed.
Just wonder how he will handle the incoming windfall tax which Labour will surely hit all successfull busineses with ?
Someone needs to tell our new CEO to pull his finger out...what appalling performance
Last post: WeirdPal, 18 Jun 2024 10:08
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1050040/bp-tipped-to-see-growth-from-us-shale-business-1050040.html
BP PLC's (LSE:BP.) American shale business will be a large part of the group’s growth over the remainder of the decade, analysts at RBC today highlighted in a note.
RBC, which rates BP at ‘outperform’, believes that the oil majors investment plans are shifting away from ‘transition growth engines’ (effectively a pseudonym for ‘net zero’ projects) in favour of upstream business, albeit, RBC notes that this has yet to be formalised as a strategy by BP.
BP up just over 1/2 %.
More positive headlines again for oil.
Oil Prices Jump 2% on Improving Demand Outlook
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Jump-2-on-Improving-Demand-Outlook.html
Think it’s now a case of pick the people writing the reports you believe and follow where they go, as there are so many conflicting reports,even in the same day.
Started: meoryou, 17 Jun 2024 15:52
Last post: meoryou, 17 Jun 2024 15:52
UK supermajor BP has resumed exploration activities offshore Brazil with the drilling of the first wildcat in the prolific pre-salt province in more than 10 years.
According to data from Brazilian market regulator ANP, BP started on 13 June drilling of the Pau Brasil exploration well in the production sharing contract of the same name in the Santos basin
Started: LeeRex, 17 Jun 2024 14:13
Last post: LeeRex, 17 Jun 2024 15:15
You can also bet your next Divi's that Russia would not accept responsibility for the clean up either.
I wonder how much environmental impact this illegal war that they started has created as well..
They really are a stain on this globe and have been for Centuries.
At some point there will be a major environmental catastrophe involving the shadow fleet.
Every year old ships are getting even older.
Ship to ship transfers only add to the risk.
Unfortunately it will probably happen in the worst place possible.
Interesting it's taken this long to consider the move, and absolutely seen as escalatory by Russia if they can do it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-aims-limit-shadow-fleet-russian-oil-tankers-2024-06-17/
Started: spights, 17 Jun 2024 06:11
Last post: spights, 17 Jun 2024 08:34
Just gone positive
Started: eviking, 16 Jun 2024 10:08
Last post: getafgrip, 16 Jun 2024 17:31
Maybe HR will end up with an overflowing mail-box! At least any employees who feel that they have been shafted by the management or directors, will have confirmation of whether this assumption is correct!
Eviking, interesting situation and don't know what to think tbh except wondering has BP's BoD totally "lost the plot" and that it is illegal to retrospectively demand employees to reveal employee relationships outside the scope of what's required under their present employment contracts. It also begs the question " doesn't the BP HR already know the law around employment contracts ?" BP are just asking for information on the relationships, not saying that they must end or one party must leave, but the way in which it is being done begs the question "what type of culture does BP have and how satisfied are BP employees ?" Gotta wonder how some of these managers get to where they are, earning too high salaries, when an ordinary shop assistant or fast food operative would probably have more sense to do a better job with the right opportunity and training !!
Started: meoryou, 14 Jun 2024 15:05
Last post: Clued, 16 Jun 2024 16:39
Y11-shx, how many shares is that ? If it's an awful lot then I hope a fall to 450p so your purchase boosts us to 500p again !!
If this hits 450 I would buy all my shares back
NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) -BP's BP.L 435,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Whiting, Indiana, refinery plans to conduct a major turnaround in the coming months, an industry source said on Thursday.
The company had no official comment.
Started: jamtart1, 14 Jun 2024 20:45
Last post: jamtart1, 14 Jun 2024 20:45
If the tories had not wasted so much money like the f#cked up 100bn railway there would be no need for such a tax on the oilers.
Hey Lee, yea I saw that about 2030. I just don't understand how it is feasible. Elec are still way to expensive, your then got issue of mechanics qualified and people who can't afford them, charge at home and prob increase in maintenance costs for both elec and petrol. They should be using incentives, not ridiculous stone wall dates. Also this is all after the rich and their kin got free terminals installed at house on taxpayer money and now people down the other end have access to nothing.
Hi Cong, I made a post just the other day regarding similar situation about 2030 Car Bans being introduced again with Labour...
That the Car Manufacturers can't plan due to our Broken Flip Flop policies and differing Parties Mandates, be it Oil, Green mandates or even the level of, what is a woman.
Labour are proposing to raise just over £6 billion across the next parliament through increasing and extending the Energy Profits Levy - a ‘windfall’ tax on the profits of oil and gas companies. Labour acknowledge that this revenue would be temporary. Rather than frequent change it would be preferable to get a long-term regime in place. This could include permanently higher tax rates that would lead to higher tax revenues when oil prices are high without the need for windfall taxes."
Quoted from a website.
Is there really anymore for them to take? When will the excuse of "windfall" tax be replaced by "money grab" .
Started: scoredagainsteps, 14 Jun 2024 14:19
Last post: MarkGo, 14 Jun 2024 14:41
No fairness here.
18 food and beverage corporations made on average about $14 billion a year in windfall profits due to the pandemic in 2021 and 2022
28 drug corporations made on average $49 billion a year in windfall profits due to the pandemic.
42 major retailers and supermarkets made on average $28 billion a year in windfall profits due to the cost of living crisis.
Nine aerospace and defense corporations raked in on average $8 billion a year each in windfall profits due to the Ukrainian conflict.
None are charged windfall taxes and pay 40% tax in the UK
North Sea Oilers that suffered multi billions of loses during the pandemic years have to pay 75% soon to increase to 78% Tax with removal of tax incentives.
Make it a even playing field what about tescos 2.5 billion plus profit and many other companies are they paying windfall tax .. No there not
Started: MarkGo, 13 Jun 2024 10:39
Last post: MarkGo, 14 Jun 2024 12:27
morning all
he who pays the piper........
eia's independence relies solely on us government funding and support. no funding, no eia. so just as the uk universities took 'funding' fom chinese government linked organisations for research and then they released study papers on the unlikely origin of covid being linked to wuhan province, there is some pressure to please their pay masters, to push an overly optimistic renewable energy narrative and not the rock the boat on hydrocarbon supply and demand.
all in well paid by the tax payer and comfortable in their agency roles i am sure.
their revisionany system of reporting enables them to subsequently rewrite history and look like a viable and reliable data source in hindsight and the show goes on.
by way of example and following on from the eia 2030 outlook. i have been studying their '23, '24 and ' 25 outlook in light of their warning and revision upwards of a substantial oversupply of oil by end '25 and their revision downwards of demand growth in '24 and '25.
what i noticed is their long term demand orecsst for 23-25 has remained the same. how can this be ?
well, retrospectively they have been amending upwards actual demand for '23 from their estimates and it looks like there is still 7-8mb of actual demand not amended yet.
so what is the point of publishing estimated demand that repeatedly ends up as incorrect ? what is the point in the weekly estimates at all ? who's interests does it really serve ?
turkeys don't vote, we all know that, but if they did.......
have a great weekend all.
mark
utlookhave been studying past don't know what's more ea has been steadily revising down oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025. but then total demand stays the same because it is revising higher 2023 oil demand.
at some point, you just have to believe iea is full of ****
While that massive Elephant in the room called Russia, is still a shadow on the sector IMO..
USA ramping up Sanctions, no longer able to trade the $$$$ creating increased Inflationary pressures again on their economy.
India & China reducing trade and purchases since Jan/ Feb, while Refineries' are being targeted on a weekly basis by Drones.. All the while skilled staff are leaving the Russian Oil sector because of risk to health and I for personally hope they have to shut in production, causing permanent reductions in ability to produce, taking oil off the Global Market and reducing finances for their illegal war machine.. WIN WIN
Both IEA and OPEC have their respective agendas, I'm not sure one is any more reliable than the other...
OPEC's perpetual claim of shortages hasn't come to pass, and their latest meeting seemed to raise the white flag to Biden and shale producers. Only time will tell.
From the EIA short term energy outlook dated 11th June 2024
'As a result, we expect oil prices will increase to an average of $87/b in 4Q24 and $88/b in 1Q25. As global oil inventories rise during most of 2025, we forecast the Brent crude oil price will gradually fall to an average of $83/b by 4Q25.'
'We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.5 million b/d in 2025. Most of the expected growth is from non-OECD countries, which increase their liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.3 million b/d in 2025. The growth in non-OECD consumption is led by China and India, which we expect will increase consumption by a combined 0.6 million b/d in 2024 and 0.7 million b/d in 2025. In addition, we expect an increase in liquid fuels consumption from non-OECD Asia because of increased bunker fuel demand driven by Red Sea disruptions and longer shipping routes for tankers. We expect increases related to bunker fuels will contribute around 10% of total oil consumption growth in 2024. In OECD countries, liquid fuels consumption stays relatively flat in 2024 and increases by 0.3 million b/d in 2025.'
Hi Clued
Just briefly, check their record over recent history. It is riddled with incorrect forecasts. They are part of the establishment when required and part independent when not. Their get out of jail free card is always that they publish estimated data not actual data therefore 'genuine' opportunity for wiggle room and adjustments.
I am not a conspiracy nut job. There are many influential, respected organisations and analysts who are suspicious and discard the EIA reports. As a government agency they also have a track record on the run up to elections whatever colour is in government.
Let's it for me.
Have a great evening.
Started: meoryou, 14 Jun 2024 12:11
Last post: meoryou, 14 Jun 2024 12:11
Started: meoryou, 14 Jun 2024 07:22
Last post: meoryou, 14 Jun 2024 07:22
Started: spights, 14 Jun 2024 06:57
Last post: spights, 14 Jun 2024 06:57
Started: spights, 13 Jun 2024 18:45
Last post: spights, 13 Jun 2024 18:45
Last post: spights, 13 Jun 2024 18:37
Hi Mark all good .
While there has been no official confirmation from the Houthis, the private security firm said the ship was “aligned with the Houthi target profile”, an apparent reference to a connection to Israel or its allies.
Since November last year, the U.S. Maritime Administration reports that the Houthis have launched some 50 attacks on vessels in the maritime area, with three sailors killed so far, one vessel seized, and one sunk. The U.S. has responded with an airstrike campaign against Houthi positions in Yemen, which the Houthis claim have killed at least 16 people. Washington was forced to relocate weapons to Qatar, diverting them from its base in the UAE, which had demanded that the U.S. seek permission before firing missiles at the Houthis from Emirati territory.
In March, the Houthis threatened that they would expand operations beyond the Red Sea, targeting Israel-linked ships traversing the Indian Ocean en route to the Cape of Good Hope. This is the longer, more expensive route being used by vessels attempting to avoid the dangers of the Red Sea.
The Gulf of Aden feeds into the Arabian Sea, through which vessels pass as they take the long way around the Horn of Africa.
Started: meoryou, 13 Jun 2024 14:29
Last post: meoryou, 13 Jun 2024 14:29
Started: MarkGo, 13 Jun 2024 12:10
Last post: meoryou, 13 Jun 2024 14:10
Would you believe an independent government agency,or someone with vested interests in keeping oil high, ad talking up demand ( that’s OPEC by the way).
Oh that’s a hard choice.mmmmm
I think I go with OPEC,their track record is so much better.
But just like the boy who cried wolf if keep saying it,
One day they will be right.
But perhaps by then no one will believe them
Aha no not surprised, I do forget about ai and it's larger / other implications, is a interesting point to consider
Cong
Just add, I agree with your view on EIA, you probably will not be too surprised to read ! The EIA global view is too US centric and influenced. I see very little from them on global demand of Non-OECD countries.
Oil consumption in developing countries that are not part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has risen sharply in recent years. Non-OECD oil consumption increased more than 40 percent with China, India, and Africa and the Saudis and with India and Africa only using a fraction of what they will need to develop at present.
Add the boom in energy requirements for AI in the west.
Mark
Cong
Just add I agree with your view on EIA, you probably will not be too surprised to read ! The EIA global v
Hi Cong
You are welcome. Always pleased to read a post from you too.
Started: Auson, 13 Jun 2024 13:53
Last post: Auson, 13 Jun 2024 13:53
'This confirmed that the EPL will permanently be disapplied if average oil and gas prices are both at or below the ESIM price threshold for 2 consecutive quarters. The ESIM price threshold was calculated using a 20-year historic average to the end of 2022 and is set at $71.40 per barrel of oil and £0.54 per therm of gas. The government will introduce legislation to remove the EPL if the ESIM is triggered.
Whilst the key parameters of the ESIM have been set, the government would like to engage with a variety of stakeholders to discuss the technical detail and practical application of the ESIM. Firstly, the government would like to build a better understanding of whether its preferred approach on the data source and parameters to calculate the reference price is appropriate. Secondly, the government would like to discuss the frequency with which it checks whether the ESIM has been triggered and the best approach to ending the EPL, as well as any transitional arrangements. Thirdly, the government would like to discuss the legislative approach to ending the EPL if the ESIM is triggered.'
Hi Spights
I hope all's well with you.
F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function"
Navigating the opposing views, views that I am always open to consider, I start by cutting through the view to see if the author or organisation has an agenda. Be it the EIA with their political influence or a Sun newspapers 'exclusive' article on 'Harvey Price's new eye problem ' with the article funded by Miss Price through her PR agent to keep the ' out of date model ' in the public's mind.
Onwards and upwards
Mark
ALEX KIMANI
Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
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By Alex Kimani - Jun 12, 2024, 7:00 PM CDT
StanChart has forecast 1.68 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.41 mb/d in 2025.
StanChart has reiterated its previous assessment that not only can the markets absorb the extra barrels by OPEC+ producers but that a deficit is likely to appear in the latter part of the current year and carry over to 2025.
Following the post-OPEC+ meeting selloff, Standard Chartered pointed out that there’s no justification for selling at a pace that even surpasses during the pandemic
The big oil price selloff in the wake of OPEC+'s decision to unwind 2.2M bbl/day in voluntary production cuts later this year has been corrected. The announcement led to front-month Brent falling to a four-month low below $77 per barrel (bbl), good for a hefty $8/bbl decline from the previous week’s high and over $15/bbl lower from April’s YTD high. Thankfully, oil prices have largely managed to pare back the losses with Brent for July delivery changing hands at $82.61 per barrel in Wednesday’s session while the corresponding WTI contract was trading at $78.57.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered pointed out that the price undershooting was the consequence of a combination of several factors including extreme macroeconomic pessimism, speculative shorts and over-enthusiastic algorithmic trading that crowded out more fundamentally-based traders. Consequently, oil futures markets flipped to a net short position in Brent, compared with a net long position at the end of the previous week. StanChart has reiterated its previous assessment that not only can the markets absorb the extra barrels by OPEC+ producers but that a deficit is likely to appear in the latter part of the current year and carry over to 2025. The analysts have predicted a particularly large 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) deficit in Q3-2024.
On the demand side, StanChart has forecast 1.68 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.41 mb/d in 2025. StanChart’s latest demand growth prediction is 0.3 mb/d higher in absolute terms and 0.14 mb/d higher in growth terms than its start-of-year expectations. The commodity experts have come up with a supply model split between Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) signatory nations (OPEC+) and non-DoC producers, with DoC crude oil output further split between OPEC and non-OPEC signatories. They have used highly cautious assumptions about compliance improvements for the three main countries that have recently produced above targets, and assumed they will only converge gradually onto their respective targets. According to the analysts, DoC output is forecast to be slightly lower in Q4-2024 than in Q2-2024, even under a near-worst-case scenario of a very slow return to compliance and limited output compensation by the three countries concerned. StanChart has predicted that the scale and duration of the projected deficits suggest that market sentiment is likely to improve in the coming months.