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BP’s ambitious share buyback plan is entirely logical because it offers excellent value for money. The company’s shares trade at just seven times forecast earnings, which grossly undervalues their long-term prospects.
With a possible dividend increase beyond the 4% hinted at, its cake and eat it time. With BP it always seems like jam tomorrow ( clever eh ) but I expect the next 24 months will be delivery of high expectations and rewards for shareholders.
One interesting figure from CFO was on buybacks. From 2021 to end '23 the buybacks were over 20% of total company shares excluding 2024 buybacks. This together with a planned minimum of $14 Billion of buybacks by end '25 is an enormous saving in dividends.
This is beneficial to board members, and excludes employee share schemes but this will be increase the value of my shares over the long run more than paying out dividends . I want a capital growth over the long term and I have calculated that should buybacks continue for ten years at the same rate, my shares will be worth around $110 BILLION as the only shares left. !!
Excellent work Happy and thank you for saving me much of the effort note taking while listening.
Ignoring the earnings misses on results this quarter, I remain very positive going forward.
Thanks for your service !
Mark
Analyst Q & A 1pm
They will also host a live question and answer session (Q&A) from 1pm BST/8am EDT to 2pm BST/9am EDT
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-reporting-and-presentations/quarterly-results-and-webcast.html
Here's Why You Should Bet on BP Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-why-you-should-bet-on-bp-stock-ahead-of-q1-earnings
Excellent rational posts on buybacks.
Just to add some numbers, BP announced in February an additional buybacks programme through to year end '25 of ' at least ' $14 billion, in addition to buying back bonds and increasing the dividend 4%pa. This also a minimum - last year dividend was increased 10%. Will capital expenditure of $16 billion ( $14 - $18 guidance) all based on $70 per barrel ( raised from $ 60 if I recall correctly)
Now oil may pull back from time to time - I expect we are seeing this presently which may determine the share price in the short term, great Q1 results or not, but I expect oil will go higher into peak season and stay in the top range of $75 - $95 for years to come.
For those who can hold for a few years or so. This is a fantastic opportunity.
Mark
Buybacks currently save around £1 Billion per annum in dividend payments and that figured is growing each and every year. The alternative view of bigger dividends now is a short term view and not one held by me or the large institutional share holders or else it would happen.
Dividends are money leaving the company for good. Buybacks are not only good for the company, they are good for shareholders with saved dividend payouts self funding future dividend increases and to increase the value , undervalued company.
Rather than increased dividends today, I am happy to play the long game.
Your welcome Clued.
Flawed or otherwise, the EIA data - with its accuracy issues - remains the ' best ' public information available to private Investors and small to medium institutions who do not have capabilites or resources to analyse all the feed in data. Larger institutionally investors with have their own independent reserch departments and analysts.
The reason the market reacts to this data , that is pre-released prior to publication to a financial cabal, is for financial gain. The data is a utilised as a critical component of the paper ( financial) oil traders strategy. The data and numbers in this EIA releases may not be right but there is still $$$$$$ to be made by reacting to them.
Have a grand day.
Mark
Morning all
Clued- The issue I have with the EIA is their methodology and their adjustment pattern that enables them to publish now and adjustment later. Now that would not matter if it did not have the subsequent influence over the price of oil.
By design ? Well if not then I would expect adjustments to data would be to overstated as well as understated published data.
The fact of the matter is that the EIA adjustments to US oil production has become consistently negative, indicating that US oil production is likely overstated and not only are supplies overstated, implied weekly oil demand has been understated. Surely, the flawed methodology could be amended to avoid this problem. The EIA's previous attempt at clarity in response to concerns of method was merely the substitution of one confusion for another.
My question is this. Is the EIA really a government agency doing its best in attempting to publish official data, or, is it under the influence of vested interests?
My opinion after studying EIA publications for the past two years alongside 'independent' data providers is the latter.
Have a great day all
Mark
Evening all
Looking forward to the manufactored market drama moving on. Federal reserve interest decision, Powell's cautionary words. The return of 50% of markets after today's International labour day market holiday and the US government's weaponised EIA oil demand data seen for the corruption of detail for political advantage. US Presidential election just six months away.
BP back in the 520's within days.
Powell's comments. Dov
Return of many European and Asian markets from International labour day tomorrow.
EIA's corrupted oil demand data seen for what it is.
Hi Jezzoo
That does make all the difference in regard to near term share price monitoring and I really hope you get your decision on timing and price perfect. Property purchase is stressful enough on its own so good luck with both.
I am hopeful that the current share price fall is very short term. The Fed's interest decision is a current factor and that the oil price will bounce on no middle east progress.
Good timing Jezzoo
Mark
WTI Finds Support After Sell Off Suddenly Halts
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
The de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and ongoing ceasefire talks in the Egyptian capital city of Cairo that could potentially halt hostilities in Gaza have lowered the geopolitical risk priced into oil prices, dragging Brent back to the $88 per barrel mark.
I try to ignore, rather than wonder, ' today's ' reason for fundamentally baseless movements either in SP or oil price. It took many years of unnecessary worry to get to this point.
I would not describe oil as tanking. Similar retracts have soon reversed. Just fiinancial market's play on possible middle east peace talks progressing. I expect no deal is possible. Been here before. Also Fed meeting causing a market wobble.
Peak season will soon be here so just a blip.
Im focusing on fundementals
Hi Spights
I am glad you buried my poor attempt at weekend wit.
Research has shown though that people who use dark humour from time to time are often seen as more intelligent and more trustworthy and much more worthy of forgiveness.
Refering to Mrs Disabled and Mr Carer. I am certainly not referring at all to anyone suffering the tragedy of any actual disability but the usual suspects gaming the system for their non means tested monthly tax free giveaway. The 100,000s of 16 to 19 year old that are entitled to full personal independence payments for depression because there is not enough youth clubs or everyone else in having a great life on TikTok is a bit depressing. !!!
Have a great weekend Spights.
Mark
Hi all
Natgas prices have collapsed as the ramp up of production exceeded expectations, supply and demand. Production has now been cut back and demand and price will rise as a result be it at a zig zagging snails pace.
I expect It won't be too long before the 8 million non contributing umpenproletariat, the Chronically unemployed and unwashed and their ilk demand that the government drowns them again in 'free' wonga handouts and once again the farce of a pair of twenty five stone, Mr Disabled and MRS Carer are back on BBC News complaining about the decision to eat or heat while in the background Sky Glass and devoured Nandos and Greggs packaging can be clearly seen.
Earnings for Big Oil backpedal as natgas prices tumble | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/earnings-big-oil-backpaddle-natgas-prices-tumble-2024-04-26/
Hi all
Exxon's earnings. Most of the super majors have similar patterns on earnings. I would not be surprised to see BP pull back in the short term, post earnings release, but I am confident of a firm recovery H2. Hope they prove me wrong and beat analysts estimates . Probably wishful thinking.
Have a great weekend all.
Mark
Exxon Mobil First-Quarter Earnings Miss Views Amid Lower Oil Refining Margins, Gas Prices
Exxon Mobil's ($XOM) first-quarter earnings declined annually and missed market estimates, impacted by lower oil refining margins and natural gas prices.
The oil giant on Friday posted adjusted earnings of $2.06 per share in the March quarter, dropping from $2.83 the year before and trailing the Capital IQ-polled consensus of $2.18. Industry refining margins and natural gas prices decreased from last year's highs, while timing effects from unsettled derivative mark-to-market impacts, other main non-cash impacts and divestments weighed on the bottom line.
Exxon's shares were down 1.8% in recent premarket activity.
Total revenue and other income fell to $83.08 billion from $86.56 billion, topping the Street's view for $81.51 billion. "We delivered a strong quarter with continued growth in advantaged assets," Chief Executive Darren Woods said in a statement. "In Product Solutions, our strong turnaround performance on cost and schedule helped drive record first-quarter refining throughput."
Upstream segment earnings declined to $5.66 billion from $6.46 billion, driven by a 32% decrease in natural gas realizations, partially offset by a 4% increase in liquid realizations. Production decreased to 3.78 million oil-equivalent barrels a day from 3.83 million barrels on a yearly basis, missing the nearly 3.8 million-barrel estimate modeled by analysts.
Earnings in the energy product operations segment slumped to $1.38 billion from $4.18 billion, pulled down by the weaker industry refining margins, the company said. Chemical products advanced to $785 million from $371 million, while specialty products slid to $761 million from $774 million in the 2023 quarter.
Total costs and other deductions widened to $70.71 billion from $69.76 billion year-on-year. The company said it saved $10.1 billion in structural costs versus the 2019 financial year, with an additional $400 million during the first quarter. It aims to generate $15 billion in savings through the end of 2027.
Capital and exploration expenditures came in at $5.84 billion versus $6.38 billion a year ago, consistent with the company's full-year guidance of $23 billion to $25 billion, Exxon said. "Looking ahead, we're making great progress on our plans to grow the earnings power of our existing businesses from investments in advantaged assets and higher-value products, and further reduce structural costs," according to Woods.
Share price down 3.5%
Evening all
Brent has popped this evening, it is currently $89. I posted back in February that something had to give in the manipulation of those who have vested interests in keeping oil low in the face of physical data. The paper market has taken its mega profit and no political pressure is going to make them short oil anytime soon. That's what has changed ( in brief )
US Crude Inventories Fall the Most in 3 Months
Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 6.368 million barrels in the week ended April 19, 2024, the most since January and against market expectations of a 1.6 million increase, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub went down by 659 thousand barrels, after a 33 thousand barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks went down by 0.634 million, less than forecast of a 1.4 million draw; and distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.614 million barrels, versus consensus for a 0.9 million decline.
The future is bright
Hi meoryou and all
Oh yes, the Tofu eating snowflakes and the scruffy unwashed children of the rich were out in farce today at the AGM.
‘Blood on all your hands’: four arrested as BP AGM thrown into chaos amid climate and Palestine protests
BP: shame on you and your shareholders
Joanna Warrington, a spokesperson for Fossil Free London which organised the disruption:
Shareholders should be hiding their bloody hands in shame today, not lifting them to vote for more ecocide and genocide.
Listen to the cries of a generation, of humanity, and stop investing in BP. Shareholders: you have blood on your hands.
Then off to do lunch with smashed avocado on toast. Without a thought on the air miles.
Mark
Morning Spights
Just read this. Out for the say now.
“I’m inviting all European oil and gas companies to relocate to America."
https://www.energyvoice.com/markets/552206/shell-bp-houston/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20Daily%20Newsletter%20B%202024-04-24&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter%20%28B%20Test%29