Member Info for MarkGo

Apologies, my post was not finished but auto posted some how. So its scruffy but makes the point.

Good afternoon all.

The write down of Rosneft.

While it may seem improbable and unlikely today, I have been cautiously optimistic, since the politically driven write down of Rosneft, that a return to the books of the Rosneft stake was a distinct possibility. Wars always end and it is becoming clear that there is a change of support towards Ukraine. The main driver for this change is President elect Trump’s vocal opposition to the billions of dollars being poured into a bottomless pit.

This view is supported by a majority of the US electorate. In addition you have Germany ( thopening up communications with Putin and other european states discussion

world in a different context

BP's Rosneft dividends are being paid into a holding account. This was confirmed by Russia.

Qatar Investment group also owns 19% of Rosneft.

All wars end and I expect Trump will force Ukraine to negotiate once US funds are stopped early 2025.

Russia needs expertise, technology, Ai for Rosneft going forward. So in short, it is possible post conflict in a year or two.

Let's see.

Hi Denby

You are most welcome and with perfect timing (thank you Spights ) the link Spights kindly posted links nicely with my previous post.

This also links to the current price of oil that is sentiment driven even if that sentiment is flawed as with the American equity market boom.

The pro sentiment for Trump becoming president elect has seen the US markets rise in anticipation, bitcoin is booming , shares like Tesla have gained around 36% in a week. Expectations for a low tax, high growth US has the markets in a daze and yet oil falls on the nonsense of " drill baby drill" and peace in the middle east ! Watch this space !

Drill baby drill Is a meaningless chant and not what the markets think it is and this reinforces the stupidity and ignorant nonsense of the negative sentiment suppressing oil.

I've read comments about how oil is going to fall into the $60s, $50s , $40s or lower. Trump can cut as many taxes as he wants and incentivise more production but Turkeys do not vote for Thanksgiving day.

Oil price is already surpressed. Oil companies are being downgraded for future profits and already fplanned free cash commitments are under threat So why in hell would they want to produce more ( and I don't believe they actually could if they wanted to) to increase supply and depress the price even further. In fact, I expect production will start to fall or be paused until price recovers if oil falls much further due to high break even levels especially of new wells.

So negative sentiment will be negative as long as people believe that something will happen. Once Peace in the middle east and drill baby drill are demonstrated to be empty election rethoric sense and fundementals will (should) prevail

Mark

Hi Denby69

One could be mistaken in thinking there has been a de-escalation in the middle east. I could be wrong, and for hopes of peace, I hope that I am, but there is a hive of activity happening mainly behind middle eastern goverments closed doors. Iranian goverment officials and their military envoys have been visiting their middle Eastern neighbours to garner support. Even their ' enemy ' Saudi Arabia has sent their military official to meet with Iranian counterparts just after Saudi Arabia condemned the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Arab, Muslim Leaders are also gathering in Saudi Arabia for a ' Middle East War Summit"

Weaponry has also been tracked being moved from Iran into Iraq and Syria closer to the Israeli border. I personally can not see this being a game of bluff because Iran are opening themselves up to justification for a preemptive strike by Israel with Trump’s blessing and the US administration now in limbo.

My guess would be Iran are planning "a response that may shock the world". Not my words but the words of one of Iran's top Republican Guard general knowing that they will need to get this right or they risk the end of their regime ? Time will tell.

Have a great day

Mark

Afternoon all

I am enjoying reading everyone's insightful contributions.

One subject that has been discussed previously and is more relevant now with a Trump victory is a concern or possible anxiety with what will be Trump’s energy policy.

At this moment, I don't believe even Trump knows what this will look like but I do keep reading about Trump and “Drill, Baby, Drill.”

I don’t think It actially means what many seem to believe it means. “Drill, baby, drill,” was a line Trump plagiarised from one time Republican vice president hopeful Sarah Palin, the ex-governor of Alaska. Do you remember her ? She was Mccain's running mate who believed the planet was 4 thousand years old. Some of her more sensible quotes were "

"If God had not wanted us to eat animals, how come he made them out of meat?"

"I believe global warming is just God hugging us closer."

"Mr. President, the only thing that stops a bad guy with a nuke is a good guy with a nuke."

Apologies, I digress.

Firstly, US production has grown from 7 million barrels around 2013 to a record 13.4 MB last month. US producers have been producing at near maximum capacity over the past two years with companies running down their previously drilled but not completed wells. ( Ducs)

Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill.” may get them cheering at his rallies in the mistaken idea that this he will bring down gasoline but it is a fantasy. The US oilers have been cash machines and returns to shareholders is a priority. Shareholders have had enough of lean years when drilling cost billions and returns were negligible. The shareholders are now the priority of these companies.

US well production costs run something like $70,000 a year. Energy costs add another $150,000 and most wells need to go offline for a week of maintenance every year, at a cost of $50,000 or so.

On average, a single oil well produces something like 28 barrels of oil per day. This means that it takes oil prices of $27 per barrel just to cover your costs. Now that is for existing wells.

When you start talking about drilling new wells, this cost serious capital expenditure with break even $62pb on new wells after a number of years and billions in exploration and production so I am sure they is no appetite from US oilers to spend billions more to in a futile attempt to lower prices. In face they would prefer higher prices for longer to maximise profits.

In to the mix is the US refinery capacity.

Just to finish, many highly respected analysts believe that the US production is nearing its peak, if not already there, and will flat-line for a number of years before reducing.

So I do not see any possibly of " drill baby drill " being anything other than catchy words.

Have a great day.

Mark

Hi Spights

Here's some additional info.

AMSTERDAM, Nov 5

BP did not disclose any price expectations but said that investment needed for growth in the relatively small Dutch market were too high.

Rival Shell (SHEL.L), last year paid 12.3 million euros ($13.4 million) for a 15-year lease on a prime service station location along the A2 highway between Amsterdam and Utrecht.

BP aims to finalise the sale by the end of 2025, it said.

Hey Denby69

You are more than welcome mate. Truth is, we are all just bystanders to global events and trying to do our best with limited access to information that would assist in determining how events might play put out and how beneficial, or otherwise, they may be for BP.

What is known is that the fundemental reasons to be invested in BP remains strong in the medium to long term regardless of politics or global events or noise, both of which should be ignored.

I have learned to my cost not to be swayed by short term share price movement or the current market's opinion or a company for this can change in an instant.

BP may well be unloved and is being punished by the market for what the market sees as unnecessary delay in being forthcoming with future strategy announcements. This will be unveiled in February and I am content to wait whereas the market is impatience.

I am also content to sit tight, compound the near 6% dividend and review my BP holding in a year or two when I expect ( hope) to be handsomely rewarded.

Cheers and good luck

Mark

Hi Denby

If I told you I would have to kill you. !!

You can find reliable quotes in the Iranian state media, english version or through state Iranian/military X accounts. Watch out for fakes.

Iran has openly stated that Operation True Promise 3 will be like nothing Israel or the world has seen before. The last two 'attacks' on Israel by Iran took place after prior communication to the US and Israel via the US and were nothing more than ' handbags' .

Iran has weaponry that far exceeds what they or Hezbollah have used to date. To use these weapons would, in my opinion, escalate to fall blown war between Israel and the Middle East and its allies so it would be a dangerous strategy for the Iranian regime.

Rumours of a coordinated operation including the Houthis and proxies in Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah may be just rumours but, this time I feel the Iranians may have already gone to far to lose face.

Time will tell. Take care

Mark

Hi Guttersnipe

At the end of COP29 there will be a joint statement stating we all agree blah, blah, blah, yawn.

At the end of 12 days of meals, pills and morning regrets such as waking up and realising its David Lammy dressed in nothing bar an African chiefs head piece, the final statemen will be cheered in the exhibition centre, plenty of hugs and back slapping. Shouts of " See you all next year "and exiting to Britney's " Oops we did it again, into their tax payers limousines speeding alone their private lanes to their tax payer funded private jets, business deals done, bungs in pockets and some change thrown in the begging bowls of the Climate change reparation mafia. " BON VOYAGE "

God bless our leaders.

Mark

Hi meoryou, I hope all's well

" One thing for sure. Tomorrow there will be Fireworks!!"

More than people imagine, possibly. I have been following some news feeds regarding Iran's much published upcoming retaliation against Israel Either it is the mother of all bravados or the planned attack will go ahead " in the next few days " . Details of Iran's Operation True Promise 3 communications have been intercepted by satellite .

Either its all bluff and bravado ( that risks a preemptive attack by Israel and allies ) or there might well be more than just fireworks tomorrow.

Breaking News. Iran has closed its airspace from November 4 to November 6.

Iran Closes Airspace Until Nov 6 | Airspace Closed After Iran's Threat To Israel. Iran warns neighbouring States to not allow US / UK to enter their airspace.

The Houthis warn Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE

if you open your airspace to the US and UK then you are officially at war with us.

US deploys B-52 bombers, F-15E fighters to reinforce presence in Middle East

November 4, 2024, 14:24 (UTC +3)

Let's hope for a bluff and peace.

hi happy

"do you agree that his campaign looks in big trouble tonight? frankly"

'only in america' .... happy, i honestly don't understand how this man can even be running for president. if we take a serious look at trump, his behaviour, his record, his rambling ******, sexist babble he would be more suited to wetherspoons than the white house. certainly nowhere near politics let alone the presidency. the man is an entertaining buffoon. but here's the thing....i like him, he is the gift that keeps on giving at least on entertainment value and you never know what stupid stuff he will come out with next.

on bp specifically, i believe trump could be too much of a disruptor for the transition projects although if he can end the ukraine conflict within one day of being in office, we might get rosneft plus dividends back the following day

right, i'm off to wetherspoons

have a great day

mark

Hi Happy

Regarding Trump, have you seen the full clip that makes a nonsense of the Liberal media spewing out that garage.

What's more worrying is people are willing to believe and repeat without taking the time to check.

Of course the liberal mainstream media will cease on an opportunity to crop 15 seconds of Trump’s rally to look that way and blitz the media with such utter garbage.

Here's a link if allowed. If not maybe you can find it.

x.com/saras76/status/1852555883646988542?t=iLotbGF6fQcyO8p1F4KaBA&s=08

Good afternoon all

I hope all are having an excellent weekend.

Seeking Alpha article. 5 min read approximately.

Seekingalpha.com/article/4731655-4-things-bp-can-do-to-convince-investors-they-are-an-oil-company-again?mailingid=37312094&messageid=must_reads&piano=mra1&serial=37312094.2373570&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Reads+recurring+2024-11-01&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads

What I took out of the results and the analysts question and answer session is incorporated in this article.

Roll on February.

Mark

Afternoon all

Regarding the dividend v buyback v debt reduction discussions. Reading through the US results earlier, I thought I would throw into the pot the intention of Chevron regarding their buyback programme.

All US and European peers have their own buyback programmes, most, if not all, have a lower dividend yield than BP ( excluding the recent share price drop. )

So, why do these companies not increase their dividend yield or reduce debt in precedence to buybacks ?

Earlier this year, Chevron pledged to repurchase $17.5 billion of shares annually, or about 6% of its market value, making it one of the biggest buybacks in the industry ever.

Just as with BP's $14 billion proposed buybacks to year end '25 that now maybe revised downwards due to market conditions, Chevron's buyback programmes is looking unaffordable from free flow so Chevron's management has indicated it’s willing to fund the buybacks with ' DEBT ' if necessary in a possible difficult 2025.

I can only surmise that all oilers believe that they are massively undervalued and they expect a rotation into value going forward.. Of course the boards benefit but they have to please the major instutional investors with these programmes.

In summary... I'm confused

Have s brilliant weekend all.

Mark

Hi Hopeful44

No changes to dividend tax.

If you receive dividends above the £500 allowance, there is no change to the amount of tax payable on the dividend income – it will depend on the income tax band you fall into.

The dividend tax rates for 2024/25 (once you go over the allowance) are:

8.75% if your income tax band is the basic rate

33.75% if your income tax band is the higher rate

39.35% if your income tax band is the additional rate

Mark

GLTader

Your figures sound right to me from memory. The EPL is a minor issue for BP due to their global operations.

I did note that SQZ whose main producing assets are in the UK North Sea, shares rose 10% today. I guess now that the unknown is known and it could have been worse.

Energy Profits Levy Changes

Today the government is announcing that the rate of the Energy Profits Levy will increase to 38% from 1 November 2024, bringing the headline rate of tax on upstream oil and gas activities to 78%.

The period that the levy applies is also being extended to 31 March 2030, which is the end of the financial year in which the current Parliament is due to finish. The Energy Security Investment Mechanism will remain in place, helping to provide operators and their investors with confidence the levy will no longer apply if prices fall consistently to, or below, historically normal levels for a sustained period.

The government will also remove unjustifiably generous investment allowances from the Energy Profits Levy, including by abolishing the levy’s main 29% investment allowance for qualifying expenditure incurred on or after 1 November 2024. Expenditure incurred prior to making the changes on 1 November 2024 will not be affected. As part of this, the government will also reduce the extent to which capital allowance claims (including First Year Allowances) can be taken into account in calculating levy profits.

There are no plans to change the availability of capital allowances in the permanent regime.

The government will retain the decarbonisation investment allowance.

Levy increased to 78% from 75% ends 2030

Removed the 29% investment allowance

Halfpenny

To the best of my knowledge, no one in this forum purports to be an expert on anything. Contributors post their thoughts and opinion on this or that topic.

Its a discussion forum.

Mark

Good evening all

Hi Harmonica, I hope you are well and your investments are holding up in this volatile, uncertain world.

You are of course right to read between the lines. Murray has repeated his " not on our agenda " response at the last two quarters to the question of a delisting. This does not actually answer the analysts question at all but is a politically astute fudge.

I am certain that it has been raised and discussed at board level and possibly with major shareholders. I know that Total have a feasibility Team exploring the benefits of a relisting in the US and Shell have mentioned a possible move should the value gap with peers not have closed by year end '25 so you are right, we will not know until its required.

The fact that Total have a feasibility Team working on this means we have no real possibility of understanding the corperate advantages, disadvantages or complexities of such a move.

Personally, I prefer a " not on the agenda " response keeping a option open, should a move be in the best long term interest of shareholders- which in my opinion it currently is not - and full focus on the growing the business value.