Member Info for MarkGo

API Inventory Moves 10/08

Crude +10.9 million (exp. +1.95 million)

Gasoline -557,000

Distillates -2.59 million

Cushing +1.359 million

SPR +0.3

EIA (wk ending 4 Oct)

Crude: 5.810M

Cushing: 1.247M

Gasoline: -6.304M

Distillates: -3.124M

Hi Primetime51

History repeating itself mate, but regardless, fundementals will win through. The massive global financial oil market traders are an incredibly influence on price in the short term

Being some 60 times larger than the physical market, short term control of direction is achievable regardless of actual physical demand but this is not a permanent possibility. It's artificial and can only play out for a limited time.

So, a historical high in shorting oil is fools gold for the late short entrants who in fomo will be the amateurs, rather than the professionals, who I suspect are going to be toasted if they maintain their short positions.

This really is history repeating itself. A few big winners and many others caught short. I'm not a trader so this is a side show where at most I am just watching and topping up where and when beneficial. In 12 to 24 months, I expect to be rewarded for my five years of patience. Lets see.

I enjoy your posts by the way Primetime51. fresh opinion is the life blood of forums such as this.

Good night

Mark.

Some data to throw into the oil demand/supply debate.

EIA has global oil demand at 103.75mbpd for September and global oil supply at 101.82mbpd for September 2024.

I'm willing to acknowledge and accept that the Libyan supply outage and US hurricanes may have played a part in this data but it is positive data.

Also in September, Chinese, Indian and Non-OECD Asian imports were at the highest level ' ever ' at 23 mbld. So record imports with economies that have slowed down. What will be the demand number's be when their ecomonic cycles move fully into growth ?

On today's market melodrama, I note oil is bouncing as I type. If anyone could give me a rational reason why the oil price crashed and is now recovering some few hours later, beyond the explanation of price manipulation, I would love to be enlightened.

Enough for today.

GLA

Foggy

Advice not taken I see. Anything is ' possible ' depending on unforeseeable, unpredictable circumstances.

Hi Jeffrey

No certainties, but all the 'data' on growth, inflation, vacancies, unemployment and investment, although far from perfect, indicates a slow down but no global economic crash as predicted ad nauseam.

China + India + Non-OECD Asia imports are at the highest level ever @ 23 mbld ........ and that's with China not firing on all cylinders .....yet

US growth adjusted upwards. No recession or hard landing in fact maybe no landing at all before take off UK economy doing fine. Some more time, work and levers to be pulled for european recovery cycle.

Global interest rates starting to fall in a managed manner by central banks to fire up growth.

With growth comes oil demand. Spare production capacity today but In two/ three years ?

The above are hardly reasons to be fearful.

Good luck, take care

Mark

Hi Foggy, there you go again. Spreading your vitriol and personalising and externalising your disappointment of your decades old investment in BP by attacking another investor with derogatory or mocking contributions. There really is no need or value in doing so.

Regarding your rant about me.

Firstly, yes, at £5.40 I was as bullish in BP, as long term investor , as I am today I am not and never have been a trader. So I invest, usually with a five year plus time frame in mind.

I commenced investing in BP and Shell Q4 2020- Q1 2021 to benefit from the pandemic economic recovery, incidentally when I first started posting on LSE forums, and continue to build my holdings in both companies. I have purchased BP from £2.40 to £5.50 on the ways up and down and have done extremely well.

I remain as bullish as ever as I can see, over the next few years, a possible oil surplus becoming a probable global oil shortage. That is why I am invested. You do not have to agree.

I can not recall what else you posted. So, once again with the appropriate amount of respect, maybe reflect before posting on the need for your post / semi-rants as to what are you trying to achieve?

Life is short Foggy.

Mark

Hi Jeffrey

I expect oil to stage a v shape recovery. This sell off is manufactured for a reason. I backed my own money it.

Give it a few days, maybe sooner.

GL. Mark

Foggy

You are old enough not to make an knee jerk comments on what is going on in the market based on a few hours of trading, not even a day.

If you and the four financial neanderthals who recommended your nonsense post spent more time studying the market then you all would not wet your pants or nappies or whinge every time there is a market blip.

In response to your post. YES . The volatility in oil you are witnessing is part of the short squeeze process with shorts attempting to manipulate the price down to exit their positions. As you really do not have any real interest in why this is happening and would rather make a snide comment, I leave it there.

Watch the market prove my opinion right over the coming weeks.

Have a great evening

Mark

Date Tuesday 29 October

Time 1pm GMT/9am EDT - 2pm BST/10am EDT (approx)

Register for the presentation

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors.html?utm_source=PC%26C%20%7C%20C%26EA%20%7C%20External%20%7C%20Global%20%7C%20bp.com%20news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=14695887_%5B6984%5D%203Q24%20invitation&dm_i=1PGC,8QZF3,5YJZN7,10D4LH,1

Anatomy of a Oil Short Squeeze:

1. Suppress the pyhsical oil market while demand is strong and the Middle East escalates.

2. Cover manipulation by continuous garbage oil media articles about oil fundamentals

3. See Managed Money get Net Short Brent.

4. Crude skyrockets +10% in a week as real news-flow overwhelms offsides manipulation and shorts bail out.

The best is yet to come.

Goiod afternoon all.

Relax on the daily market movements. Shorts have made oil a coiled spring.

Goldman: Watch For A Massive Squeeze In Energy After The Biggest Shorting Frenzy In Five Years.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Historic-Short-Squeeze-Sends-Oil-Prices-Higher.html?s=08

Oh Foggy.

I do hope you get some rest over the weekend.

To err is human, to forgive divine

Bless you

Mark

Hi Crossley

Yes, you are correct mate Lazy thinking on my behalf while typing ! The average hourly earnings does measure the change in the amount of money businesses pay for labour, excluding farms / agricultural.

More bullush evidence for a soft landing in the US managed commendably by the Fed ( so far ) This is a managed slow down in the economy to get rid of the, once in a lifetime, post pandemic, supply chain driven, inflation boom. As said credit to the Fed.

The global recession narrative, that I never bought into, is dead and buried.

Have a great weekend.

Mark

Finally..

Just information for market nerds.....

At 13.30 today UK time the 1. US unemployment rate (forecast 4.2% ) 2. Non farm Payroll ( forecast 147k ) and 3. average hourly earnings month on month ( forecast 0 03%) , all for September will be released. This will decide the direction of the US ( UK ) stock market this afternoon.

Positive will be.

1. Under forecast Unemployment

2. Higher than forecast. New Jobs

3 Higher than forecast More hours being worked.

Mark

Afternoon all

I hope all BP investors are feeling more positive if a tad understandably impatient with the share price as well.

With Brent touching $79bp, Oil equities will, unequally, follow the price of oil upwards, as long as the price remains elevated which I fully expect will be the case going forward.

Why ?

1. The middle east conflict, of course.

2. The price of gasoline at the pumps is now guaranteed to remain low come US Presidential election day 5th Nov. This is essential for Harris and the Democrats. The clear manipulation and surpression of oil by the Federal Reserve, indirectly through New York trading desks, buying oil futures and the historic levels of oil shorting has achieved this. It has also kept inflation at bay to allow the Fed's .50bp interest rate cut pre-election. High oil prices is inflationary.

3. Anyone shorting oil will be looking to exit.

For the past nine months or so, we had all been been fed by vested interests a false narrative on oil, with such bearish, negative comment such as "demand for oil has collapsed in China" " US going into hard recession " "over supply concerns" " global economic catastrophic crash imminent " " Peace deal imminent " etc I am sure that these are familiar to all and all the time while fundementals and factual data showed quite the opposite.

We witnessed a concerted campaign of coordinated efforts to control, manipulate and surpress the price of oil all. All illegally breaching commercial legislation and market regulation but when you are above the law this is irrelevant.

So, China finally comes in with guns blazing with their stimulus (or at least the global equity marketss seem to think so). US, Chinese and global equities are flying, copper is above $10k soft US landing and yet oil was repeatedly sold down, most recently because a bogus FT.COM click-bait story on Saudi Arabia abandoned the $100 target, which it never had in the first place that crashed oil by 4%. This follows the non existent ' ceasefire between Isreal and Hezbollah that also crashed oil 4%.

Each time oil started to recover a subsequent 'story ' brought the price back down. Total normal market reaction or illegal manipulation taken place ?

Does it make any sense that eack piece of positive data, emptying global inventories, inflation under control, Chinese stimulus package - with more to come - had no posituve impact on the price of Oil ? with all the positive market data we saw nonsensical record bearishness with oil futures.

Suppressing the price of oil and oil markets is time limited and has coming to an end, in my opinion, with mission completed.

Good times ahead....

Just to add...

China + India + Non-OECD Asia imports are at the highest level ever @ 23 mbld

API + EIA Storage builds data this week are irrelevant and skewed by the Hurricane last week as previously. All to be adjusted end of month.

Have an excellent weekend all.

Mark

Citi has identified BP and Shell as its top short-term picks in the oil sector, citing the potential for a rebound driven by rising demand, particularly from China's economic stimulus.

While global energy stocks have underperformed in 2024 due to oversupply, the American investment bank believes both UK super-majors are poised to benefit from improved market conditions in the coming months.

According to Citi’s recent analysis, oil prices are being discounted at around $70 per barrel. However, if prices were to fall to $60, free cash flow yields could shrink, forcing energy companies to make tough financial decisions.

Despite this, Citi remains optimistic about BP and Shell, suggesting that they could see a positive short-term boost as oil demand strengthens.

Citi also warns that excess global supply may continue into 2025, putting pressure on oil prices.

OPEC+, the group of oil-producing nations, is expected to continue defending oil prices, but the risk of further oversupply remains.

Hi Primetime51 and all.

I expect this to continue to increase. Anyone short on oil is playing a dangerous hand. Why ? Well OPEC-plus ' plan ' to return 180,000bpd from December is actually only 17,000bpd net after the three overproducers compensation cuts of 163,000bpd. All three Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan have adhered and complied 100% in September and hopefully will do so until September '25 nearly negating the additional barrels to the market.

Add to the mix Bibi about to punish Iran and low gasoline prices at US pumps now achieved and guaranteed by the Federal Reserve trading desks manipulation and surpression of the price of oil until at least the US election in 5th November and shorts covering and you get a one way direction in my opinion with BP to follow in the short term.

Interesting times

Mark

Traders Bet On $100-a-Barrel Oil as Middle East Risks Escalate

Almost 27 million barrels of Brent $100 calls traded

Some are hedging against price spike, others covering position

Iran's nuclear programme has been moved over recent years to unreachable locations deep under mountainous regions

Satellite pictures confirm that Iran is building a nuclear facility in the Zagros mountains, near the existing Natanz enrichment site. It seems to be so deep under the ground that it will be invulnerable even to America’s most powerful bunker-busting bomb.