Member Info for MarkGo

Hi meoryou and all

The narrative flip from oil glut or supply concerns reinforces the manipulation theory in my opinion.

API / EIA data for the week ending Sept 13 may show an irrelevant crude build, possibly 3million at a guess, as it will be impacted by Hurricane Francine.

The extent of production lost from GOM is known but it will also distort refinery throughput. As a result, I expect volatile figures this week from both. May dip oil or the market may ignore the distortion.

Fundementals remain strong. In

Afternoon all.

The cartel and the narrative of over supply / oil glut.

Opec+ carter's overproduced members are Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. They are complying with their planned compensation cuts in September, in line with their pledges for over production in the first seven months of the year.

So as well as OPEC delaying unwinding of their voluntary cuts by not pushing 180,000b onto the market, by at least two months and most probably longer, the compensation cuts by the three removing approx 400,000b from the market per month ' If ' they adhere to the plan and in my opinion they will. With Libyan oil production still unclear going forward (-800,000b less so far ) the question is this,

How long before a narrative of over supply fears becomes in reality a market tipped into a supply shortage ?

Preliminary data already indicates a drop in exports from Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan in line with pledges.

Interesting times ahead.

Great weekend all.

Mark

Reuters Energy

US Elections

Transport Fuels

US gasoline prices set to fall under $3/gallon as election nears. US avg. gasoline price set to dip to $2.99/gal by late Oct.

As if by magic !

Last one today.

EIA (wk ending 6 Sept)

Crude: 0.833M

Cushing: -1.704M

Gasoline: 2.310M

Distillates: 2.308M

Oil is a globally traded commodity. The oil market trades 22 hours per day. For those who do not buy the oil manipulation theory ( FOGGY ) How do you explain the downward pressure that occurs at the same time most days just when US oil traders get to their desks ?

The price of oil is not controlled by physical inventory.

It is controlled by the paper financial oil money A market 60.times larger than the physical market. It is illegal collusion between three global oil trading institutions who are in cahoots with the US government which has a huge incentive to keep inflation low and voters happy at the pump as we approach the elections.

Hi meoryou

Only third hand information but investors with Cushing employee contacts are reporting that the tanks at Cushing is at extremely low levels. Make of that what you will.

The last month, we have seen estimated inventory builds that have not occurred, if fact, the unexpected draws have be adjusted upwards from the weekly data.

EIA in 15 mins. An estimated build of 0.9M

Hi all.

Over the past few weeks, we have been told oil is down because of the following.

—‘Imminent middle east Ceasefire’ (didn’t happen)

—‘Libya re-start’ (didn’t happen)

—Inv builds (didn’t happen)

—OPEC Unwinding (didn’t happen)

—Hard Landing (probably will not happen)

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she believes the U.S. economy is healthy and that recent months of cooler jobs data is a signal of a soft landing, not a recession.Yellen said the U.S. is not seeing meaningful layoffs and the economy is “deep into a recovery.”

U.S. economic growth revised up to solid 3 percent annual rate ... - PBS

29 Aug 2024 — WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew last quarter at a healthy 3 percent annual pace, fueled by strong consumer spending and business investment,

China’s crude oil imports saw a notable rebound in August as refiners increased operations to meet rising seasonal demand. #OPEC+ exporters, including Iran, played a significant role in this growth

The only headline that matters to Biden/Harris admin pre election is the price at the pumps.

Fun BP Fact

In dollar terms, BP's market capitalisation has now plunged to the same level as during the worst point of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill: ~$85 billion

Bargain of the year, if not, decade.

Mark

API Inventory data yesterday

Crude -2.79 million (exp. +700,000... so close !!!

Gasoline -513,000

Distillates +191,000

Cushing -2.6 million (!!) Cushing seems to be heading to zero if draws continue.

SPR +300,000

EIA data 15.30 today.

I'm still sticking with this being a manipulated oil price surpression by the paper market. It will not last Brent will rise from here, not in a straight line but, back to $80 Q3 / post election......and oil equities with it .

Mark

Afternoon all.

Share price correlation with the price of oil I agree with.

The question is 'why has poo crashed ?.

I do not buy any of the myriad of reasons the that we have been told over the past number of weeks. ou’ve been told "Oil is down because ".......

Imminent ceasefire deal Isreal/Hamas (didn’t happen)

Libya re-starting oil production (didn’t happen)

Crude Inventory builds (didn’t happen)

Opec + unwinding cuts Oct. (Is not happening)

US economy hard landing ( since 2023 it hasn't happened and US economy grew at a 3% annual rate in the second quarter of 2024. This was an increase from the initial estimate of 2.8% and was driven by strong consumer spending and business investment. So prior to the Fed stimulating the US economy with interest rate cuts. A SOLID 3% GROWTH The long-term average for US Real GDP Growth is 3.18%. No hard landing in sight.

Chinese recession / economic armageddon. Really ? China has a 5% growth target. Most analysts believe that even with a Chinese 'slowdown' 4.8% growth is the concensus.

India ? Growth is forecast to reach 7 percent in FY24/25 and remain strong in FY25/26 and FY26/27. No recession is sight there.

At worst we are seeing a global slowdown that has been orchestrated by Central banks to bring down inflation. Job done, rate cuts will stimulate growth.

So what is happening ? Well in my opinion, pure manipulation as we move to the US election. At the Mid Terms you had Biden flooding the oil market with the SPR He is unable to do that again. So Plan B, most know that the price if oil is not controlled by physical inventory.

It is controlled by the Financial paper oil market. Three main global oil institutions who control the market 30x bigger than the physical market. For the US Government and Harris it is essential to keep energy costs artificially low and the US voters happy as we approach the elections.

Nice one Charlie.

Well said mate. Although I do accept that anyone who loses their sh*t over this current volatility and manipulation ( and it is 100% manipulation ) is entitled to their rant if it makes them feel better.

There is so much in play at the moment, so many vested interests, and so many different agendas that to attempt to navigate, understand or preempt the market is a certain one way ticket to the loony bin.

We live in a financial wonderland where black means white and vice versa where strong fndementals and bullish press releases crash markets.

All I am personally attempting to do during this period is see out this drama. I have added heavily to a number of companies and I expect, in time, to be handsomely rewarded.

My advise for what it is worth. Do not sell.unless you have to. This period will pass. Ignore any opinion, no one knows

where the market is going in the short term. Laugh at the utter crazy swings going on in the market by those pushing agendas knowing with certainty that this will pass - as always.

Being able to hold equities through these cycles, shenanigans and political skullduggery is key. If you are fortunate to be able to do so, then this will be viewed with the benefit of hindsight as a financial heist carried out by those masters of the universe who control the world.

Best is to sit back, pick up some bargains if you can and be confident that all will come good in time, do not although thoughts of shoulda, coulda, woulda to live in your mind rent free.

Happy weekend all

Mark

Hi Cong

Me too. Global oil fundemental remain strong regardless of the slowdown. I do not see a global recession either. This slowdown was by design and its soon to be stimulated by rate cuts.

As for China, China’s crude oil imports saw a notable rebound in August as refiners increased operations to meet rising seasonal demand. A 10 month high of cheap oil imports I bet they are loving the paper market's artificial surpression. Cheap oil for China Smart economics or a help get Harris elected. No president has ever been reelected with high prices gas at the pumps.

US commercial crude inventories are sitting at 5-year lows.

Implied US oil production has flatlined since Q4 2022.

The 8 countries that voluntarily cut production are extending the production cuts until December 2024. OPEC+ crude exports also remain low

Global oil demand, while China remains weak, continues to show growth y-o-y.

Finally, Libya production outage continues, and crude exports are now being impacted, which would reduce global light crude supplies.

And yet, despite all of these things we mentioned, WTI still trades below $70/bbl, and market sentiment has never been more bearish.

Pre election manipulation ?

Heads up at 13.30 US August payroll data and unemployment figs.

Equities will.probably react to this data. Estimate 164k new jobs. Less than this , depending by how much should be bearish for shares. Higher than the estimate and not a large growth in unemployment should be good, possible rally after data release.

EIA Summary for week ending 8-30-24

Summary

Crude: -6.9 MMB Forecast - 0.6MMB

SPR: +1.8 MMB

Cushing: -1.1 MMB

Gasoline: +0.8 MMB

Distillate: -0.4 MMB

Jet: -0.8 MMB

Ethanol: -0.2 MMB

Propane: +2.6 MMB

Other Oil: -2.5 MMB

Total:-8.0 MMB

Hi Happy

Nicely set out as a comparison. Thank you. You will not get any argument from me either on the ridiculous current valuation.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-cashes-clean-fuel-230000197.html

Hi meandyou

I hope all's well. With buyback programmes, companies must not purchase more than 25% of the average daily volume of the shares in any one day on the on which the purchase is carried out. Without doing too much maths it looks like the volume matches this requirement.

In my opinion, based in private investor's limitations on information, I do see that buybacks at this price makes absolute business sense. It is never going to grab the headlines but over time this is a sensible use of free cash at this price. If nothing else, the buybacks secure the self funding of an annual 10% increase in the dividend. Good for long term holders.

I am content to allow BP to evolve and now build out their recent strategic M&A and transition engines and t judge them in a year or two.

I am hopeful that BP are a get rich slowly investment from here on to 2030 and beyond. Just my opinion. Lets see what happens. With Secure growing dividends of 5%+ as a loyalty payment on the long journey.

Chev 1yr - 7.26 1m -7

Oxy 1yr - 8. 35 1m -5

Exxon 1yr +8 1m 0

Bp adr 1 yr - 6.5 1m -2.3

Fogthemogg

My first reaction to your post was that you are clearly not getting enough sleep Fog. That can lead one to be grumpy and impolite. You are entitled to your view of me and of my posts. I do think that your comment of my " daily one man show of endlessly pumping bp and the oil price " is slightly over the top. Just for clarity, my comment regarding US peers taking a beating was made in the context of a longer period than yesterday's performance.

Now get some sleep !

Have a great weekend

I recall Shell stating that if they had not closed the valuation gap with US peers by year end '25 . It would then be a consideration, so don't hold your breath. In addition the valuation gap has as more to do with business strategy than location. American investors can already buy both companies but they prefer US Oilers strategy.

US peers taking a beating as well.

Not much of a silver lining but imagine the double whammy of buybacks at 5.30 or higher rather that 4.30.

More shares for the $14B bucks is good regardless of for or against buybacks. Glass half full.