Member Info for MarkGo

Getagrip.

Thanks for the cut and pastes on S&P report. I have read the report in full previously but it may assist others. . S&P downgrade is to their outlook rating, a rating view on the near term not taking into account the full business financial framework and investment and divestment strategy over the mefium to long term and they are as quick to upgrade as they have previously.

They also reaffirmied BP's A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term issuer investment grade credit ratings which is important and the second priority of the company.

So just like your credit rating goes up and down based on your immediate financial positioning, this is the same. Pay some debt off and ' bingo'.

BP is investing $60 Billion over the next few years , as well as massive buybacks and a resilient dividend. This is more S&P justifying their existence rather than anything more important. They also recognise that BP have reduced their debt massively from $60 Billion to $24 Billion. A very significant 60% reduction in 3 years.

So perspective and viewpoint are key.

Afternoon

Getagrip - not sure who you mean by those suppressing or ignoring facts on this forum. On debt, here is some facts

S&P credit rating downgrade outlook to stable is not that significant for BP. The short and long term with the three credit agencies remains strong investment grade. As far as posting informed comment, you are wrong to post that BP will suddenly be paying more for their debt. They raise debt through long term fixed interest bonds.

BP's net debt rose to $24 billion in the first quarter of the year, compared with $21.2 billion a year. This compares with debt of $60 BILLION in Q1 2020 so a reduced debt of $36 Billion so far.

This is S&P short term outlook due to BP’s net debt position creeping up a little from £21.7 to £24B. However, this figure is way down from the $60 billion peak of Q1 2020 and also represents just 35% of the company’s $85 billion in shareholders’ funds, so the balance sheet is far from stretched. This increase was a working capital build due to Capex in Q1. Divestments of around $3-4 billion are signed and due Q3 to replace this raise.

BP has a consistent and disciplined financial framework 2021 - 2025 and maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating remains their second priority within this financial frame, after a resilient, growing, dividend ais their first priority and very well covered.

Their priority framework of 1. Resilient dividend min 4% increase 2. Investment grade rating. 3. $4 Billion buybacks pa 4. Hydrocarbon capex. 5. Transition capex all achievable at $60bp. Oil currently $79bp.

So BP has much room to adjust before dividends or buybacks come into play.

Fact checker

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/search-results.html

Have a great weekend

Mark

Back to $80pb. So what was this weeks melodrama all about ?

All oilers share prices are still stubbornly resistant but this will change. In the meantime every day the cash machine is raking it in.

Bhueverything changes, things are not permanent and everything is temporary

Afternoon

I do understand the disappointment with the share price and to be totally honest I did expected the share price would be in the in the 6s by now but, we are where we are.

If the sluggish performance was solely BP I would be more concerned but if you track US peers and other super majors their underperformance over the past 18 month timeline mirrors BP to a big extent.

So the ' dire performance ' has little to do with Murray or buybacks , its a sector underperformance so I am willing to be patient but my patience is not unlimited.

I have been invested since 2021 so my return is respectable. I invested with an expected 5 year timeline and I hope and expect that the true value of the company will show in the share price by the end of '25 for all my prior posted reasons.

In addition, dividend growth on its own should see BP rise as it becomes an attractive safe income stock, over the next 2 years as interest rates on savings accounts are cut.

Have a great day.

Mark

Well there you have it

" extreme macroeconomic pessimism; speculative shorts and over-enthusiastic algorithmic trading. "

Confirmation of what I suspected. With the worlds top three oil traders controlling the oil market they can literally control the price. What amazes me is the number of reputable energy analysts who react to these price movements by publishing absolute nonsense relating to the price movement. The price manipulated down they bilge out recession and over supply - the price goes up the bilge alters to supply shortage and low global inventory worries, like lemmings highly paid and hugely influential justify oil price movements always after the event.

When this manipulation is over, the collateral damage as usual are the energy equities with billions wiped off of company market caps in a matter of hours.

When this happens at periods of seasonal low volumes, such as now, the damage can take a longer period to bounce back from. Oil is recovering while BP and peers remain in a sticky range.

If you intend holding then you can ignore these regular institutional smash and grab heists, however, what they do is illegal and should be cracked down on. The reason they can get away with this with near impunity is the powerful law makers at the very top benefit.

Just some facts unconnected with the above.

Biden earned $43,000 as a senator

President Biden is worth an estimated $10 million, up from $8 million when he took office four years ago.

The President owns two homes in Delaware that are worth an estimated $7 million combined.

His most valuable property is a 4,800-square-foot summer home in Rehoboth Beach, worth an estimated $4.5 million.

No accusations are made in the posting of these facts.

Mark

Last post today.

Those doom mongers who warn nonsense about oil in the 60s or 50s soon due to oversupply should note.....

Drilling costs and breakeven levels vary across US basins. In the Permian—the US's top crude oil-producing region—breakeven prices average $65/bbl, an increase of $4/bbl year over year. And breakeven prices vary even within different parts of the Permian itself. 27 Mar 2024

So, don't believe the nonsense. Price drops so will US production. Very limited E&P over the past decade will result in a multi year super cycle on limited oil supply probably as early as 2026....

Block out short term noise, stay the course.

Latest Release Jun 05, 2024 Actual Build +1.233M Forecast Draw -2.100M Previous -4.156M

This is nearly 3 million barrels less of a build than yesterdays API Build + 4.026 MB.

How can that happen ? Well in a non manipulated, non financially corrupt paper oil market , without possible political influence a few months before a Presidential elec and without the world's criminally convicted largest oil traders able to move the financial oil market, in collusion with each other, whatever damn way they chose in the short term, the discrepancies of date world be alarming and raise appropriate questions and concerns over the validity of the data but we live in opaque times where toothless regulators carry out investigations behind closed billionaires boardrooms and the smoke and mirrors of ritually adjusted data is quietly amended after price mission accomplished and always with the get out of jail ( literally) excuse that these are just estimates, incomplete as they are as only 90% of of industry data included in their abacus calculation is accepted as normal.

So the oil inventory build estimated by the API yesterday lowered prices with a shock build and the EIA more conservative build keep them there today. Collusion ? Corruption ? who knows, maybe I am just too much of a conspiracy theorist.

Billions made, we move on.

Apologies

EIA data release is at 15.30 UK time not 14.00.

It has been known for EIA and API to be out of sync.

Possible draw ?

Apologies

EIA data release is at 15.30 UK time not 14.00.

It has been known for EIA and API to be out of sync.

Possible draw ?

Morning all..

RSI suggests BP is in oversold territory

Relative Strength Index (14d) for BP. is ‎23.94‏ and below peers average of 48

When the RSI drops below 30, a stock is considered oversold. This can often be a bullish signal because it might mean the stock has been undervalued, and investors could consider it a potential buying opportunity.

I believe oil has also been oversold on unclear opec narrative.

EIA crude data release at 14.00. I'm not certain they will agree with API.

We'll see.

Hi meoryou

I was reading recently about how the global commodity financial markets are still rife with corruption and market manipulation. The list of companies who have been found guilty over the years - I guess there are many more who don't get caught - is astonishing. The world's largest oil traders, who move the market, have all been found guilty of various corruption charges.

Maybe this, as well as other shenanigans may go some way to explaining the disconnect between the physical market and the paper oil market.

Thats my lot today.

Have a great evening.

Out later this evening

API Forecast w/e 30/05 1.9m Draw Actual ????

API Forecast w/e 23/05 1.9m Draw Actual 6.490

A 5 to 6mb draw again this week should have a positive impact.

Mark

Evening all

I do not understand the market logic following OPEC+'s production cut announcement over the weekend. The extension of cuts Q3 was reacted to by the market as a negative.

How can a roll over of voluntary cuts be seen as a negative? Well going into the weekend consensus expectations for the Opec meeting were bullish, maybe too bullish. Expectations of a possible extension of cuts to year end or even into Q1, were published by analysts but I don't think they were ever on the agenda.

Opec have actively managing supply and been proactive and flexible in their action and this will continue.

It was illogical for the market, not seeing a longer period of roll over of cuts - something I feel would of been a negative signal for demand - totally ignores or forgets Opec+'sannouncement of the extention to Q3 of voluntary production cuts, that will be extended again to year-end and beyond if market conditions at that time warrants It.

In my opinion, the fact that Opec did not extend further is a positive 'bullish' sign because they expect demand may probably require the unrolling of the cuts sooner not later, not to over supply the market but to feed into real physical growing demand.

Then again, when has the oil market ever been logical ?

Crude inventory data should show decent draws over the next few weeks, 5mbs+ possibly this week for w/e 30th, will reverse this temporary blip.

Mark

LSE playing up so I've given up.

Have a great evening

Hi Buffa

Market corrections are

Wise words Sotonspike

Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said today that global jet fuel has recently recovered above pre-pandemic levels.

Morning all

All we are witnessing is a technical sell off of oil. In a world where the oil paper market ( financial trading ) for oil is 30 to 50 times bigger than the physical oil market - and 65% of traded paper barrels are by algos and cmputer systems that operate on technical triggers rather to make traders money rather than on inventory balances on physical supply and demand - there will be days when oil price movement is not supported by fundamentals. This price movement will trigger equity algos and all of a sudden attitudes and narratives turn negative.

Physical supply and demand are healthy.

Opec+'decision is being viewed incorrectly in my opinion.

You could see Opecs decision to roll out the cuts as, be it cautiously, as a negative and a trigger for over supply concerns and the sell off but Opec are not incompetent.

I believe that its a positive sign that they see the global physical demand for oil healthy and the roll out of cuts will coincide with demand growth as the months progress.

I expect healthy inventory data overvghe next few days with trigger a reversal in the oil and equities falls.

This is just a few of those days.

Mark

Morning meoryou.

As well as the increased aviation fuel, sustainable aviation fuel that BP are at the cutting edge and market leader of and already producing, all be it limited, at present. Demand for SAF massively exceeds supply and will only grow over next decade with BP set to benefit.

Natural gas prices collapsed after the highs of 2022/23, I sure you remember the chant of the dependent class ' heat or eat '. Here's another interesting future growth story that could see gas rocket.

AI revolution will be boon for natural gas, say fossil fuel bosses

AI data centres’ need for reliable power supply set to soar

The growth of AI is expected to be good news for America’s shale sector. AI revolution will be boon for natural gas, say fossil fuel bosses.

A surge in demand for electricity to feed data centres and to power an artificial intelligence revolution will usher in a golden era for natural gas, producers say.

AI’s soaring energy needs will rise well beyond what renewable energy and batteries can deliver, executives argue, making more planet-warming fossil fuel supplies crucial even as governments vow to slash their use.

https://www.ft.com/content/1f93b9b2-b264-44e2-87cc-83c04d8f1e2b

Looks extremely positive going forward.

Mark

Hi Spights

Thank you have a marvellous weekend.

Many stalls and false dawns with BP over recent years but we are certainly out of the darkness. With dividend compensation every quarter for the psychological, emotional roller coaster, or counselling, vindication and treasure is just over the horizon. Staying the course now is essential. The markets will move towards our position sooner or later and then....Onwards and upwards.

Recent Venezuela / BP comments were negative. Here is a positive update.....

BP ($BP) received a two-year license from the US Treasury Department to develop gas fields in Venezuela alongside Trinidad and Tobago's state energy gorup NGC, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing Trinidad's Energy Minister Stuart Young.

The license allows the companies to negotiate and develop the Cocuina-Manakin gas fields in the sanctioned country. British oil and gas giant BP had previously suspended negotiations for the fields pending US authorization.

The US has been issuing individual authorizations to companies after it did not renew a wider license allowing Venezuela to export its oil and receive investments.

Price (GBP): £489.10, Change: £+2.10, Percent Change: +0.43%

Onwards and upwards.

Mark

Thanks meoryou

Absolutely right you never know. Murray did give his opinion at Q1 results. BP is not looking to re-list primarily in the US following Sawan's announcement at Shell to consider relisting if the value gap is not closing by year end '25. Total TTE are going through a consultation process on the same, to report back to their shareholders in September.

My opinion, for what it is worth, is while It is true that the valuation gap between European and US peers clearly exists. I don't believe a simple primary re-listing will make much difference to this gap as both BP and Shell are already available to US investors now with ADR shares.

So apart from increased market liquidity from the broken ftse, what would attract US funds to rush to invest in either BP, Shell or Total when you currently do not. ?

The valuation gap, in my opinion, has a lot more to do with the mind set of US energy investors. They see US peers prioritising oil and gas - with some investment into alternatives - and European companies being a mishmash of investments into unproven high cost, gambles. While this may be unfair and prove to be good investments, the higher investment in renewables and "green energy" projects complicates the understanding of European O&G companies.

The fact that the managements intend on attempting to close the valuation gap a priority is good to hear. What may change this is if Labour removes the tax incentive benefits of rebates for investment under their EPL and by becoming domiciled in the US opens up US tax advantages then as you say. Never say never.

Chat next week post Opec. Hope you have a great weekend.

Mark