Member Info for MarkGo

Hi meoryou

I hope all's well. The RD in RDS must of meant something too. I believe that Stammers EPL will be more bark than bite. At the commencement of the EPL, BP reveiwed all their plans for the £18Billion North Sea centred investment programme until 2030.

Looney, then saidthat none of BP’s planned £18bn UK investments would be mothballed if a windfall tax were introduced but times and leadership have changed.

I expect Exxon, Chevron and Shell's decision to exit the North Sea after 55 years will give the Socialists - that's the Labour Socialists not the Tory Socialists - something to consider like not biting the hands that feed you.

The B in BP may have some value but it's not priceless and neither are the north sea investment or the UK renewable energy projects compulsory.

Political talk is cheap though.

Mark

Morning Spights and all

I hope you are well. Thank you for the interesting Opec article. US crude production in 2023 reached record levels. This will not be increased or maintained this year, for a number of reasons. Last year, US increased production would have undermined the effectiveness of any cuts by increasing US market share. We are now at a level where the Opec+"cartel are in control. With demand set to seasonally fall Q3, they are positioning themselves to be an agile, proactive, nimble organisation that with monitor the market and make adjustments as and when needed to control supply and price as long as they stay united.

Opec have modernised. They are no longer the old staid, monolithic organisation. Slow to agree and slower to act. There is an oil supply crisis coming over the next 2 - 3 years and under MBS they are positioning themselves to take full control and advantage. Oil equities, such as BP, will also be the winners. ££££

Have a great day.

Mark

You are so welcome meoryou.

Below is an elloboration of my post and some meat on the bines. For clarity, figures quoted are not recent.

Why do API and EIA data sometimes differ so much from each other?

Thr. U.S. crude oil inventory data released by the API was + 5.32 million barrels, while the OVERNIGHT EIA data was + 1.64 million barrels, a difference of 3.68 million barrels. Both THE API and EIA measure U.S. oil inventories, and both are very authoritative agencies, but why are the API and EIA data sometimes so different?

Chu Liang, a senior crude oil analyst at futures brokerage Schwab Intime, said the main reasons are the following:

First, the statistical sample is different. EIA is the commercial crude oil inventory of all U.S. companies, while API is the crude oil inventory data of all API members and some non-members. EIA's statistical scope is larger than API's.

Second, API is a private organization, and the extraction of statistical data is submitted (or not submitted) by member initiative resources. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, all companies holding 1,000 barrels of crude oil are required to submit inventory changes. Failure to do so will result in a penalty of nearly $3,000 per day.

Third, the import and export data of the US are lagging behind, which may or may not be included in the inventory. If there is a large import and export flow in the current period, it may cause a large deviation.

From the above three reasons, we can find that there may be deviations in the short term (weekly), but in the long term (a month), the data between the two may be very close, and there may be no difference between the two in the long term (a quarter).

However, the API official explanation for the above differences is not due to the above reasons, but because the weekly inventory survey data can only be accurate to 90% (EIA is the same), the other 10% need to be estimated, the reason for the difference is EIA and API estimates.

Just for information. Nothing to add.

Mark

Evening meoryou

An excellent question and one that had me scratching my head for a long while before my nerdism compulsed me to dig deeper.

We know that both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) both provide weekly crude oil inventory reports. Both weekly oil inventory reports are just estimates and indicators of the supply and demand for oil which as we see can move the price of oil. At best it is limited date estimates but the questionable data can control global prices. It is ridiculous and anexample of how the US and the $ used to rule the world. It still influences the oil financial market but this will come to a natural end sooner or later.

The API is a trade association whereas the EIA is a governmental agency both are meant to be impartial but in reality probably as inpartial as the BBC !!!

The

The EIA is apparently an independent, impartial organization that "collects, analyzes, and disseminates energy information in the U.S to promote sound policymaking.

The API is an industry group that represents American companies involved in producing, refining, and distributing petroleum and petroleum products. Its report is available only to members and it currently has over 600 members, which consist of companies in all facets of the oil industry, from exploration and production to marketing and supply.

Both only cover 90% of the industry. One could imagine policymaking reasons to be interested in the data published. As well as the trade agencies reasons.

In conclusion the data is just an incomplete estimated snap shot of US demand / supply/import / exports.The financial oil markets know in advance the data. The whole regime is distorted and manipulated to make money.

Lies, damn lies and statistics. I focus on global data to get a more reliable picture and I see strong demand and restricted supply probably by 2026.

Nothing is certain, just a view.

Take care mate.

Mark

4.156 draw. Less than API

Hi all,

Finance editor Forbes. comments. 1st choice Shell, 2nd choice BP.....

Many investors are jittery about BP—formerly known as the British Petroleum Company. BP missed analysts’ expectations for third-quarter earnings, due in part to falling gas prices. Investors have also been concerned about BP’s aggressive transition to green energy—although BP has slowed its timetable for decreasing carbon emissions—and about BP’s corner office turnover. So what’s to like about BP?

It is smaller than Shell but still ranks as one of the most dominant energy stocks in the world. It also stands out because of its qualitative strength, not just its size.

BP provides nearly three times the dividend yield of the S&P 500 index, as measured by popular S&P 500 Index tracking fund Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX). And BP has a rock-bottom price-to-earnings ratio, which makes it a real bargain right now.

Not to mention, last summer BP announced a $1.5 billion stock buyback and raised its dividend. These factors do not make BP a slam dunk, but they hint that the current valuation is at worst fair and that investors won’t be overpaying.

Omalley wish you the best. meoryou's suggestion is sensible. Timing the market is very difficult.

Morning all

' BIG DRAWS BACK' but whether Diane Abbott can stand in as a candidate is another question.

API inventory moves

crude oil -6.490 million

gasoline -452,000

distillates +2.045 million

cushing -1.706 million

A pleasant surprise as I thought maybe this would need a further week to show in the data for as this is week ending 22/05. Economists were predicting a draw of 1.9m so 6.5m is very bullish. Cautiously waiting today for the EIA to report similar data - not guaranteed - The EIA are the official government agency who have a track record under reporting estimated demand and then making adjustments on physical data through incompetence or by political expediency, who knows, but they currently have 7 million crude underestimate to " adjust' back into the data at a time of there choosing. Either way, this weeks data should be the start of some strong demand and inventory draws weeks certainly through to August.

Then on to the stage this weekend we have Opec+. Concensus and the market expectations is for a roll over of the cuts which makes sense to me. Why roll out the cuts into a balanced market. Best to wait until the market/price demands the extra production and that will come. Opec+ are cautious, disciplined and in full control and will not want to throw out a surprise decision. US production is running at maximum so no serious threat that they could not fill any gap in the market .

On the share price, it must be disappointing to see how sticky and depressed the sp has been over recent times especially if you need to sell. For those fortunate to be able to hold - through to at least end '25 for me - patience will be rewarded.

In the words of D.Ream " things can only get better " financially if not politically.

I'm off now to read Diane Abbott's My political gaffes. Volume seven.

Have a great day

Mark

*2016

Just to add.

After $18 Trillion of global government subsidies to the renewable industries since 2026.

Due to this eye watering excellent use of our money, global fossil fuel demand has reduced substantially from 81% in 2016 to ....................

80% today.

Hi Jaker

I hope all's good with you.

Starmer is being coy about detail on the EPL. I do think that he will increase the EPL by 3% to 78% - in line with Norway who massively subsidise the O&G industry through investment tax incentives - and he will., on paper, end fossil fuel investment relief.

What I expect he will do in my opinion is move the investment relief, in full if not enhanced ,to renewable investment and the relief will be returned to the same fossil fuel industry who are investing in the transition i.e BP

This way he fools the gullible. Without investment relief there will be no investment. His wet dream on the Great British Energy Company will remain that a soggy pair of y-fronts. The tail certainly does not wag the dog in this instance.

Opposition is easy , being in power is more complicated and he knows this of

They have committed to stop new oil and gas licences but not cancel licences that could take 10 years or more to produce,However, what we don’t have is a detailed plan for the phase-out of existing oil and gas overall.

Labour’s recent document on energy insists that thet are committed to north Sea oil and gas for decades to come so square that circle.

I expect BP has been given the not not to worry and as a shareholder I'm doing the same.

I am quite excited by the data I can access. The Financial oil market correction is coming to an end in my opinion.

Shorts are closing positions in oil. The change in sentiment msy take another eeek or so but the physical market signals are bullish. Reduced summer volumes will play its part but all ducks are moving into line. Brent is resilient, Opec+ are in control. BP is primed to sprout legs. Miss it, miss out.

One thing readers should always count on in the oil market is that "price changes sentiment," and in this case, the recent pullback has not only seen financial speculators exit in unison, but investors also turning cautious.

But if you follow the data, you will know that the bottoming signals are here. And based on everything I'm seeing, we should be able to hold $77 to $78 WTI.

There are many reasons why we believe this to be the case. One of them is the global oil inventory draws we see on the horizon.

I'm calling this the bottom but it will take to see wi8th he benefit hindsight. Energy stocks are cyclical but this is different this time. Minor E&P over the past decade. Multi year oil bull market on supply limitations late '25 onwards. This is not a gamble. Energy stocks will outperform the market over the next 12 - 36 months. Relax, have patience, bank the dividend, sit back and enjoy the journey.

All positives signals but my data shows that you may see a last build this week before weekly draws. This is total manipulation if happens. Election manipulation. Only delaying the inevitable.

Morning meoryou

I was just reading an article along the same lines. A pepper corn payment to release them from rehabilitation and any future iliability. BP also has big expansion plans for SA, so hopefully some good will as well as 4p.

Feeling positive about this week. I expect inventory draws this week, Gas buddy data reporting gasoline demand breaching 9 million barrels for memorial weekend and the cherry will, hopefully, be Opec+ meeting. The meetings will take place virtually on the 2nd of June. The expectation is that the 8 states that offered voluntary cuts will extend them, with a possibility of further action to support the market.

Have a great Bank Holiday.

Good morning all

Welcome back Spights.

Meoryou. I dont think we will be getting a special dividend from this sale. The state-owned Central Energy Fund (CEF) announced on Saturday that it had concluded the two-year-long discussions to purchase the Sapref refinery from oil majors Shell and BP for R1 = 0.04p. Question is, why two years of negotiations.

Mark

Morning all

The article was published on the 8th May, apologies I'd already posted. It's worth posting again if only for Lydia's Barclays price target first raised from £7.00 to £10.00 on 8th February 2023, 15 months ago and we are at £4.81. Anyway, some people still believe in Father Christmas, I believe in Lydia Rainforth.

BP plans on costs can lift share price, says Barclays

BP is a standout in an oil sector that on fundamentals has appeal, according to analysts at Barclays.

Sticking with a share price target of 1000p or double the current market level, the group's unfashionable return to oil production and cost curing are likely to be the catalyst said analysts at the UK bank

“We continue to see significant value in bp shares as the group adds higher-margin upstream volumes and starts to deliver additional profitability from the low-carbon business.

“The new ambition on costs is both welcome and much needed as the management team aim to close the perception gap.”

'Outperform' is the rating on the shares.

Buffa

In my opinion, I belie

Just to add

The 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting will be held on Sat 1st June 2024. Consensus is a roll over of cuts into H2.

Morning all

Oil has been resilient regardless of US based inventory data and is currently rebounding as usual from a small build dip. I study the US inventory data in detail. This data is based in Inport/export numbers and little to do with actual physical supply and demand in the US and nothing to do with supply and demand globally. Global inventory data is what is important in establishing relevant global demand and yet the fact that the oil price can be dictated by two sets of ' impartial ' weekly US data inventory levels is astonishing. The prompt rebounds are key here. Gobal demand is healthy and as US data has a part to play, the coming weeks data will show healthy draws. 100% or my names not Martin.

Great day all.

Greetings Omalley

May I join meoryou, who is one of the most respected and informed contributors of this forum, in welcoming you to the BP board.

With the proviso that in this world nothing is certain except death and taxes, in my opinion BP should be an excellent investment choice over your suggested timescale 12 - 24 months.

BP has an annually growing dividend that is the company’s number one priority of its financial framework. The company is aggressively buying back at least $14 billion of its stock by Q4 2025 at very undervalued levels.

BP in the 4.80s is an excellent entry point. Taking a look at the summer seasonal pattern for BP you can see that there is a summer slide possibly active. Over the last 25 years, BP share price has fallen over 52% of the time for an average drop of 5.26%. With the largest fall has been nearly 30% in 2015. This could be dejavu with 2023 when large % falls over the summer period were reversed in Q3. £4.50 to £5.60 There is a risk of a further temporary pull back but I was content to top up last week at 4.86, 4.88 as I never time the market perfectly and dips from this level will always find buyers.

Oil is going to stay higher from longer. Disregarding the short term data and the Western oil financial market speculators, a global oil supply shortage is less than two years away according to highly respected analysts.

The transition engines will start generatating returns by year end '25. Already profitable, costs are being returned to the balance sheet now.

I am hopeful that all of the above and more should see a revaluation over the next 1-2 years and a SP starting with 7 would not be a surprise by 2026.

Good luck

Mark