Member Info for MarkGo

Morning Spights

Just read this. Out for the say now.

“I’m inviting all European oil and gas companies to relocate to America."

https://www.energyvoice.com/markets/552206/shell-bp-houston/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20Daily%20Newsletter%20B%202024-04-24&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter%20%28B%20Test%29

Apologies Spights.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/aker-bps-north-sea-field-comes-on-stream/#

Good Monday morning all

Today's early news

Aker BP’s North Sea field comes on stream

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/aker-bps-north-sea-field-comes-on-stream/?s=03

Hi meoryou

I recall the concerns over the premium that BP paid for AE in late 2022. Around a 40% premium at $4.1b ( $3.3 + debt ) and negative commentary at the time over Looney’s strategy and acquisitions. I suspect that in time this acquisition will be seen as a great deal.

It may surprise those who want BP to dump the transition agenda and stick to O&G that BP's European and US peers are also investing in Biofuels and making there own and acquisitions. This is a growth industry with plenty of demand going forward and BP have positioned themselves to benefit for years to come.

The old saying "Where there's muck there's brass" comes to mind.

Have a brilliant weekend.

Mark

Hi Spights

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,” a Quote the 19th century when 'good women ' had not been invented so it would seem !!!

Okay, moniman's post was far from evil but I hope you get the point.

A TipRanks analyst's upgrade link. Nothing especially new here just a recognition that more and more are seeing BP as an investment as the bullish amongst us do. In the short term, looking to top up again if sub £5 in the certainty of heading back north soon.

Have a great day Spights, meoryou and all inc. Moniman

Mark

BP p.l.c. (GB:BP):

Analyst Consensus has changed from Moderate Buy to Strong Buy.

For more information on analyst consensus, hedge fund activity, blogger sentiment and insider transactions see GB:BP on TipRanks

Check out GB:BP 506.6p on TipRanks

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:bp/price-target

Morning meoryou

For now, with Iran downplaying the explosion in central Iran this morning , and with no official comment from Israel or the US, the situation is seen as being contained for now. Neither side want to escalate in my opinion.

Hopefully, as you post, this country to country attacks will be put to bed now by both the countries. I hope words and threats will replace drones and missiles.

There is hope that these limited actions and international pressure will force both sides to contain further escalation.

Monitoring the price of oil, it reflects expectations of no further escalation and the reports from Iran did not mention any damage. No nuclear facility was attacked or damaged fortunately.

All this could change of course. Israel seem to be still intent of a Rafar operation and a Lebanon and Hezbollah is another focus point.

I hope you had an amazing holiday.

Mark

Moniman

If ignorance and disrespect were sports you would win gold medals in both.

I do not want to be rude in response to your post directed at Spights ( not sights ) but you leave me little choice as Spights is a decent, polite, respected long standing contributor to this forum.

I would expect someone with 10,000+ contributions would be experienced enough not to presume and post impulsive, ill-considered comment that has no value other to BP investors.

A decision for you as to whether you would like to make amends for your imprudent comment. An apology to Spights comes to mind as an decent option.

Mark

Hi Spights,

I hope all's well with you. I'm pleased to see your Lloyds holding is rewarding your patience and BP will do the same in time. I know we have been here before but BP was always going to be a long term reward. Personally hoping and expecting £7+ by year end 2025 and not certain that would be reward enough for me to sell. Many profitable projects coming on stream over the next 18mths.

J.S.B , Spights and all. Best of luck.

Mark

J.S.B

Brokers recommendations are meaningless. They have about as much idea where the share price will be in twelve months as mystic meg. At best they are trend followers at worst they are salesmen for their institutions.

The general consensus is that BP will improve over the next year or so. This is my belief too. It seems like groundhog year with BP but I do hope and expect that BP will pass its all time high later this year and into 2025.

In the short term there is every chance that BP could go sub 5 again. For me this would be another buying opportunity.

If you do not intend selling try to ignore the daily, weekly noise. All time high and beyond is just over the horizon in my opinion.

Mark

Morning Slights

The temporary inventory build is nothing to worry about neither is the temporary pull back in oil and SP.

I posted the following two days ago...

Oil market fundamentals this year have been healthy, but we are entering a short-term lull due to global refinery maintenance in April coupled with stretched financial positioning means that the headwinds are building for oil prices. I expect to see inventory builds continuing over the next few weeks coupled with the weakness in refining margins that will pull back oil in the short term.

However, this short term pull back should not distract from what is to come later this year. I think as oil pulls back in the near term, opportunistic investors and traders will continue to bet on higher oil prices going year end and 2025 being aware of the deficit data.

Additionally oil with head north on any Isreali response.

Sideways for a bit then onwards and upwards

Have a great day.

Mark

Hi WeirdPal

I fully respect your decision to sell. On this board there are a number of contributors who's opinion and analysis I totally respect and take on board and you are definitely one of them.

Out for the rest of the day now.

Have a great day.

Mark

Buenos dìas meoryou

Espero que estés bien

I hope you are having a marvellous time in Spain and wish you well for the rest of holiday.

I could not agree more with your last post. These are very interesting times to be a BP shareholder. In regard to those selling recently, the saying goes that ' taking a profit is never wrong ' and depending on individual circumstances that may be the case but if you are to reinvest your funds elsewhere I honestly can not see a better sector to be invested in going forward and out of that sector the possible rewards of being a BP shareholder, for all the reasons my previous post outlined and more ( Auchincloss confident of $9-$10B pa from growth engine sectors ) makes me confident to hold.

Anyway enough of me for now.

Adiós amigo.

It's me again.

Last hog of the board today I promise.

On a down day, I want to finish today with some positives.

Peak season is just six weeks away Oil fundementals and price remain strong @ $90ish. So along with many other oilers, BP is refilling the cash tank.

BP has shifted its energy transition strategy to a more "pragmatic" approach with a renewed focus on Oil & Gas and shareholder distributions up from 60% to 80% of surplus cash to shareholders.

With this surplus cash payout raised to 80%, I see BP offering up to 12% total yield in dividend and buybacks for 2024 and an 11% annualized yield through to 2028 with its peers offering 9%.

BP's reserves currently lack depth due to Rosneft ' exit ' at 8.7 years at present but Rosneft is a write-down not write-off. Rosneft dividends for BP are still being paid and held on account. Wars come and go. Companies are more perpetual. I expect BP's near $24B stake - excluding dividends $6B - to return in value sometime in the next few years.

BP remains at a 45% discount to its peers.

Possibility, if not probability, of acquisition or merger.

So, all in all, I see BP offering me one of best current investment opportunities based on risk/reward profile in the industry,

Good luck all.

Mark

Morning meoryou, I hope all's well with you.

Darkresh - with respect- It is totally acceptable and you are fully entitled to disagree with my opinion. You seem to miss the point in your post. Yes, the Opec+ cartel are currently cutting production- mainly KSA to support the price of oil - during this short term period of various headwinds as I explained in my previous post.

Oil demand is at record highs and will continue to grow. Regardless of recent weeks inventory builds, global oil inventories have barely built from the beginning of the year - a period when usually demand is low and builds are high -and in the coming months as we move into peak season global inventories will reach record lows, Summer driving season is nearing, US shale growth is slowing, and Opec are fully in control and will manage the situation in the short tetm aware of possibilities such as releases from the strategic reserve. They will wind down the cuts into growing demand and once this has been achieved attention will be on maximum global capacity which is surprising Limited..

While the world will never run out of oil, extraction, production and supply will become more challenging. With Africa and Asia going through their own industrial revolution peak oil demand will be decades away whereas supply is another story. A lack of exploration over the past decade means there will be a lag between recent years exploration and actual increased supply. That lack of previous exploration will fuel the price of oil over the next few years or at least that is what I'm betting on that oil will recover from the short term to be higher for longer. An average of brent $90 to $100 until year end 2025 should push BP beyond my price target.

In regard to debt, I agree with meoryou's analysis.

Have a good day.

Mark

Morning all

As interesting as the current geopolitical theatre is at the moment and the short term focus on the implications for the price of oil and therefore oil companies, the geoeopolitical risks should not distract everyone from what's happening for the next few years to come which will see a global oil structural supply deficit.

Oil market fundamentals this year have been healthy, but we are entering a short-term lull due to global refinery maintenance in April coupled with stretched financial positioning means that the headwinds are building for oil prices. I expect to see inventory builds continuing over the next few weeks coupled with the weakness in refining margins that will pull back oil in the short term.

However, this short term pull back should not distract from what is to come later this year. I think as oil pulls back in the near term, opportunistic investors and traders will continue to bet on higher oil prices going year end and 2025 being aware of the deficit data.

The structural supply deficit has been commented on by a number of CEOs of various oil companies. When this prediction becomes fact and materialises I expect oil equities including BP will be much higher than today. I would not be surprised to see the share price fall in the short term before building into year end and 2025. Without unforeseeable events, I would be disappointed not to see BP's share price starting with a 7 by year end 2025.

Have a wonderful day all.

Mark

Morning WeirdPal

Just posted and saw your post. Daniel Haynes had said the same in a much more polished way.

Morning all

Oil down this morning, as I suspected it would be, the oil premium has benn sold on facts. The iranian ' retaliation' was designed to look like a hard response while in truth it was a choreographed farce. Iran informed the Americans hours before the attack commenced. The drones took fro. 4 to 6 hours to reach Israel, hardly a lightening, stealth strike and after Iran firework show they immediately released a statement saying they there campaign against Israel is now over - as long as Isreal does not retaliate. Puffing out of Iranian chests over. Iran has much more destructive weaponry but decided against using them.

In summary, Iran does not want a war with Isreal. Isreal does not want a war with Iran. The Americans do not work Isreal to retaliate. Iran wants the US to stop Israel retaliating. Israel wants the US to allow a Rafar operation for restraint on Iran.

Away from this temporary side show, fundementals are all that matters in the medium to long term, as meoryou rightly mentions.

Hi Cong

I hope all's well with you. It is always a pleasure to see posts from you.

With the caveat that nothing is certain with the energy sector. I would certainly hope that BP share price starts with a 7 by year end 25.

..... a year or so. I hope by the end of 2025

Have a great Sunday all.

Mark

Good morning Redbluerhino, Darren Taylor & Howardzz

Redbluerhino - great comment and posts.

Isreal is a rogue state. Their disproportionate destruction of Gaza and their campaign of genocide in response to October 7th is testament to this.

The west's mealy-mouthed concern for the two million people in Gaza at the same time sending Isreal the bombs and bullets to kill the carry out their campaign is shameful and abhorrent. In this live situation nothing can be ruled out and all possibilities are possible. However, I do not see Isreal wanting a full scale conflict with Iran and Iran certainly does not want a full scale war with Isreal.

With the US election six months away, Biden will be telling Bibi any significant response that could escalate to an all out middle Eastern war and the consequences for the prices at pumps - and therefore his re-election - in the run up to that election is a red line for US support for Isreal. Biden has turned a blind eye to sanctioned Iranian oil 3mbpd being sold to help keep a lid on price and will not allow this to be jeopardised.

I

Isreal have achieved their aim in bombing the Iranian embassy. I agree with your opinion that focus is now off of Gaza and the political pressure is lowered on Bibi as Israeli unity in the face of attack will take precedence. This has already been achieved at no real cost - one child injured - I don't see any strategic advantage in a wider conflict for Isreal. Maybe Rafah campaign permission could possibly be a bargaining chip in this death game.

and so to oil, the market will be calculating all the possibilities and probabilities with 'buy the rumour sell the news' fear of the unknown being replaced with the known, I would not be surprised to see lower oil prices as s result when the oil market opens.

That said, I do see this situation as a short term side show as far as oil is concerned. I agree also with Darien's comment regarding the importance of Opec's 'management ' of supply and the resilience of demand that is set to grow into peak season as more influential in the medium to long term so any fall should soon be recovered going forward.

I would not be surprised to see $100pb+ before the end of 2025 once the election is over and limited global supply comes into focus. Prior to the election, possible releases from the strategic reserves in the US and possibly China will be used to depress price but will be temporary.

I guess I should mention BP !

I note some investors have recently sold. Enjoy your profits anyone who has decided to sell. It is fully understandable, following the repeated peaks and troughs experience from May'23, that concerns of a further repeat could be just around the corner. With previous selling opportunities around the peak 560s followed by 20% drops I can understand why some are selling and taking profits.

Personally I have no intention to sell any BP for the foreseeable until true value is achieved maybe in